Tuesday, July 22, 2008

Go With Your Strengths

Just took a peek at the close after I'd shut things down for the day around 2pm (due in part to non-market commitments) and noticed the post-3:30pm moonshot. Now there are two ways to look at this:

(1) Damn, I missed the move!


(2) Get immediately in the "Day After Trend" Mindset to prepare for tomorrow's opening trade sequences.

Now before we choose the obvious preference, we must first immediately revise the phrasing for #1 to "OK, I missed part of that move!" given the fact that most traders don't catch (or intend on catching) the full move. That alone should neutralize any emotional baggage associated with not participating in a market move.

Nevertheless, the clear choice of mindset #2 for this trader reflects:

a) Stewing does no good. Been there done that;
b) My strength and the vast majority of my earnings comes prior to 3:30pm;
c) My greatest losses come from trading after 3:30pm (especially fading extreme trends);
d) My greatest gains typically come from the day after trend; and
e) All I care about is tomorrow's trade potential. OK, this only works in tandem with effective execution during tomorrow, the planning of which must now be my top priority.

Yea, I know this all sounds preachy -- even if I'm just talking to myself -- but I easily have a few hundred thousand dollars worth of scars validating these simple truths that are on page 1 of every Trading For Dummies or Trading 101 textbook. So it's not lip service ... it's conviction.

Stayed pretty sharp today scalping and feeling the market's pulse, but I'll need to be even sharper tomorrow to maximize potential. I'll need to read and sense the other poker players' hands, many of whom were experiencing "c" big-time at today's close. Did the market call their final bluffs? Did their Kings get cracked by today's Aces? If so, will Kings take tomorrow's pot? (Hell, likely yea as it sure felt like short-term capitulation panic buying at close).

But that's not a prediction. All I know is I'm going with my strengths tomorrow.


Anonymous said...

Don, today felt alot like capitulation buying at the close as well and I've always felt more comfortable taking the other side of the trade. I'm confused by your message, are you saying the trade tomorrow is to short or follow todays trend higher, at least at the open? Also, is there a way to follow what you are doing, long/short or is this blog just your commentary? I'm new to the blog world so please forgive me. I too am ready for a vacation.

Don Miller said...

Thanks for the comments. I discuss the day (or morning) after trend concept many times throughout the blog, so you might want to use the search feature in the top bar of the blog. The link in last weekend's "index" post may also help.

Essentially, it's expecting oscillations after a large move as market participants digest the prior day (exacerbated by incorrect emotional traders trying to trade day 2 the same as day 1), and often the major trend in play the prior day will provide support for one final exhuastion thrust.