Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Wednesday's Trade - Work Remains

6:08am OK, this is getting a bit frustrating. Pitcher and batter been going at it for 2+ days now and this batter keeps going to the rosin to get a better grip. The DAX indeed had that pullback toward closing supports in the Europe sessions, but essentially got table scraps as the pace has been tough. Got myself into a hole 4:30am-5:00am, but slightly positive on the day now. Nothing like a squiggly/wiggly 5x bottom on the 3 min chart into strong 30-min support to frustrate dip-buying traders before the turn. Fairly tight overnight range and ES holding the 1260 area for now. Would love ES long in the high 1250s after open, but haven't gotten it in the overnight session ... thus the early DAX trading. Noticing I'm holding the bat tight am a bit early on the swing ... sort of like trading with scared capital. Going to focus on making contact and letting the wood do the work in the main session.

7:08am Planning ahead, game plan will be looking for the first decent dip with rock solid support in the low 1250s as the wind beneath my wings. Second choice will be to short any approach to 1270 on a high TICK reading, but I prefer the trend pullback option!

4:02pm First, yes this is a nine-hour gap between posts. In-between went something like this: Had to adjust plan to yet another gap and run; Nailed the first top; Had to leave my station when the first primo bounce came so missed that; Got chopped up a bit midday and gave back some gains; and closed on a couple of decent scalp sequences on the PM climb. All in all, a positive day, but I'm still not at all satisfied with my management in this dogpile in/out summer market.

Grades & Observations.

Trade Execution & Management: C It's been a long while since I gave away more than 50% of my gains by end-of-day which happened today. Not good. 1,445 contracts traded: Too large a sum considering the market. Not selective enough on entries.

Market Reads: B Reading well, even with executions still missing by a beat or two. It's very much been a summer market in terms of start/stop pace. I've also noticed I've had to adjust more times than not to an opening rhythm which was somewhat different than expected. (Today's early post above is a good example re: ES planning; another reason subscription fortune teller services aren't worth the weight in their tarot cards. You have to be flexible real-time.)

Interesting that both the DAX and ES had ugly-paced bounce points into their respective 30-minute supports. Ugly meaning multiple bottoms with somewhat volatile bottom-building which made clean entries a bit tough. It's also extremely interesting to see yet another closing trend run -- which makes ES closing with strong trends for three straight days. One thing is certain, that won't keep happening forever.

I should actually be satisfied with this month's performance heading into the last day. Started strong; had the infamous brain cramp; rebounded faster than I ever had and then some; and now some less-than-optimal results in three strong trend days. The P&L will show very strong #s for the month, yet as usual it won't reflect opportunity loss and I'm not pleased.

Simply put, a great deal of work remains. The chip pile continues to grow, but I won't accept less than optimal results.

1 comment:

traderboy said...

Great to hear from you Don. I really look forward to reading your blog. Thank you so much for sharing.