Monday, November 30, 2009

Monday Notes - 2010 Goal Follow-Up

A few thoughts as I await tonight's Pats-Saints game of the year.

I received as much mail in response to Saturday's post as any post I've ever done, so I thought it would be helpful to respond here for all to see (and to save on virtual email postage). And since most of the questions dealt with my plan to significantly increase my size, I'll address that tonight.

Why pursue it? Well, two reasons come to mind.

First, while trading remains a challenge every day of a trader's life (hopefully an enjoyable one ... why else would we do this?), there's frankly only one personal trading objective that's left for me to prove I can attain, and that's to increase my size far beyond what I've traditionally traded over the years.

Many know that I believe that once a trader reaches a certain level of proficiency, account balance, and "standard" contract size, one can trade with far less stress and far greater proficiency by trading what essentially becomes a lesser % of one's capital to achieve the same bottom line. As such, I've really not increased my size much over recent years, except when I momentarily floored the accelerator in late 2008.

Second, despite the Jellie effort which revitalized my momentarily-lost passion for trading after reaching the top of the industry in 2008, I still find myself too often simply "going through the motions" with respect to my trading, which often results in focus lapses, suboptimized sequences, and thus a P&L that at times would be more than acceptable for the vast majority of traders, yet simply isn't for this trader. Frankly, for me it sometimes feels like trying to chew after a dose of Novocaine.

And so increasing my size is intended -- in part -- to attempt to remedy that problem.

Now before the inbox floods again, let me say right I'm fully aware it's a good problem to have, and I'm certainly not looking for sympathy, nor am I looking to make any "wow" headlines like I inadvertently made in 2008 & 2009 when my results spread around the Internet like a Tiger Woods 2am car accident.

Yet for me, this business is all about personal self-actualization ... nothing more, nothing less ... and I simply need to complete the last unwritten chapter of my trading career.

Sure, I may mightily fail and look like the world's biggest fool. Which of course didn't stop me when I set my 2008 sights on the top performers of the industry, or when I gave up a very comfortable executive corporate career over a decade ago to take up this business, but I digress. And Lord knows I've had my share of pratfalls over the course of my 48 years on this planet.

Yet as I mentioned in my November 4th post, as well as in the recent video interview with Matt Davio, I'm frankly lucky to have even been born.

As such, I don't think I'll ever consider any part of my life to be a failure.

For someday I'll leave this planet with exactly what I brought into it ... nothing.

Hopefully, I'll have left it with no regrets and after having at least helped a few others along the way.

Have a pleasant evening and enjoy the game.

Saturday, November 28, 2009

The Weekend Trader - 2010: Year of the Iceberg

Throughout my life, I've always been a believer in harnessing the power of the unseen, while using nature metaphors to try to bring the unseen into view.

Most diary followers know the story of the Chinese Bamboo Tree by now, which became a personal metaphor for my trading in 2008 as my life's root structure -- naked to the visual eye -- showed its strength and power.

2009 of course brought continued Bamboo growth, followed by the Jellie effort which recognized that traders must constantly float and adapt to current market tides and conditions to be successful.

And after some deep soul searching of recent weeks and Friday's trading (where I'm still ticked off at my size management), and on the heels of reader feedback to my question in October of what to do now that I've caught the rabbit, I've decided to make 2010 my personal Iceberg year which -- to keep me motivated -- include the following Jack Welch-like stretch Trading Goals for 2010:

2010 Initial Outlier Trading Goals

At least two $100,000 Days (with allowances for two $50,000 Daily Draws)
At least two $50,000 Single Trade Sequences
Increasing my standard-position ES trade size radically to 250 contracts, and my "all-in" size to 500 (close to a fivefold increase to my recent definition, keeping in mind I can trade up to 800)
Note the 12/11/09 Update re: financial targets.

Other 2010 Goals
Continue to give back to the Industry & contribute to the American Diabetes Association
Continue to develop & trade amidst a group of World Class traders
Make the Final Table in one major poker tournament
Be in my office no later than 5am ET EVERY day & by 4am on EVERY post-trend day
Further refine and protect my mental focus and spiritual energy at all costs
Participate in at least one spiritual weekend retreat
Continue to speak up on behalf of traders over 40

Yes, the outlier goals are purposely ambitious, and accomplishing them won't be easy. And many of course will again say it's impossible (I'm already starting my 2010 bulletin board), that it's all about greed (no, it's all about the challenge and further stretching oneself so long as we have breath), or that it's "all about me" (for this diary's intent has always been to inspire others to pursue greatness).

Yet the time for such a move finally seems, well, "right". My game is on, my new body (25 less pounds) is ready, I'm surrounded by an incredible supportive team, and I'm planning on using the 2009 summer "off-season" of teaching as the springboard for the launch, while using December as a "bridge" of sorts to get my sizes up.

And it will take some significant mental conditioning, which I've already begun in the form of using a simulator on weekends trading 1,000 contract lots to make myself comfortable with the size jump (much like a baseball player in the on-deck circle swings a weighted bat ... as the "increase" will actually feel like a "decrease").

Clearly, it won't be easy and I fully expect to get "knocked around".

But by now you should know I despise "easy".

Plus, we mustn't be fooled by the naked eye.

For methinks we've only scratched the surface.

And as always, you're welcome to look over my shoulder via the blog as I chronicle what I expect will be my toughest trading journey ever. I also encourage you to set your own iceberg goals to discover your fullest potential, as it's probably there even though you can't "see" it.

Special Post - Webinar Unbundling

In response to various email requests, and given my continuing sensitivity to trader educational costs for those on a budget, I've decided to "unbundle" the eight two-hour Jellie Study Session Webinars for the Holiday season by creating a package of the key first three sessions at 50% of the full series price (effectively, a single point on a 15-lot ES trade).

While I feel all eight sessions are important as each one builds on the prior ones, I also recognize that some weren't able to afford the full series, and would like to reach out to as many interested traders as possible.

As noted in the full course syllabus which describes the content of each session in detail, I consider the first three sessions as the most critical in laying the foundation for what was a very intense eight week effort. Keep in mind the first session was paramount in describing my deeply held beliefs and strategies, and the third session includes my views on risk and trade sequence management.

Session #1 - Laying the Foundation
Setting the Jellie Environment
Don’s Core Trading & Training Beliefs
The Concept of Wholesale Opportunities & Market Inefficiencies
Trading Variations & Don’s Style
Screen, Setups
Preferred High Probability Technical Pattern Setups
Key ES Tendencies
Uncertainty & Probability
Betting Size, Income Distribution, & “Outliers”

Session #2 - Trader Business Planning & Week #1 Reinforcement
Business Concepts & Expense Management
Don’s Core Trading & Training Beliefs
Don’s Workstation Setup
Trader Cost Components
Business Entity & Trader Tax References
CME Membership Cost & Benefits
Trader Financial Reporting
Week #1 Jellie Reinforcement:
- The Power of the M.A.T.D.
- Divergences in a Range Environment
- Extreme Trend Capitulation
- 1-Minute Coil Triggers
- Exiting Into the Retail Trade
- Nasdaq vs. S&P Relative Strength

Session #3 - Trade Management & Week #2 Reinforcement
Scalp vs. Swing Trading
Single vs. Multiple Entries/Exits
Trade Sequence Risk Management
Risk Management via Stops
Risk Management via Sizing
Pressing the Trade
Week #2 Jellie Reinforcement:
- Late Day Closing Runs
- Noon Extensions
- Balancing Multiple Indicators
- Seasonal Tendencies
- FOMC Day Strategies
- Stops as Pauses
- Focus

As was the case before, the price can be applied toward the entire Series or a live Jellie effort should I decide to run any in 2010 (as most know, I'm simply focused on my own trading right now), and the donation to the American Diabetes Association will continue.

If you're interested, you can view feedback to the course, a video overview, and ordering info on the site.

Consider it my gift to those on a tight budget and another push to help the ADA during the Holiday season in the continuing spirit of win-win.

Look for the normal Weekend Trader post later.

Friday, November 27, 2009

Friday Notes - Mad as Hell and ....

Yesterday's post says it all.

For far too long this year, I've gone at trading half-heartedly. Sure the Jellie efforts diluted my trading focus at times as I focused on other people's P&Ls -- even as I continued to trade to effectively teach -- but as they say, "that was then".

Yes, the industry records, requests for interviews, and addition of substantial sums to my trading capital in recent years turned me into a half-hearted complacent wuss at times, and a full-fledged wuss at others. Too often, I stopped getting up early when there was opportunity, as well as making the other sacrifices that are necessary if one is truly going to excel in this business.

So yesterday began my road back as I put aside early pre-turkey plans to effectively trade the Dubai barf. Then, I chose to further alter plans last night by getting to bed early, passing on the late football game, and sleeping in my office to make sure I was prepared for both the 3am Europe open and 9:30am U.S. normal session open, both of which provided once-a-year type of setups after the excessive and thinly traded 40 point sell-a-thon.

And what an open it was as I nailed the U.S. day session by catching the bottom and top of each early oscillation (yes, that's an actual TT system-generated chart of my executions as we use in the tank ... triangle pointing right opens the sequence, triangle pointing left closes the sequence, and dashes are interim adds or scales ... most of the lower dashes are additional buys).

For as I screamed in the tank at the time, price was rising as TICK was FALLING, which set the stage for price spikes once TICK stabilized and turned:

09:31:04 {DonM} L 7850 probe
09:32:39 {DonM} added
09:32:42 {DonM} let's go
09:32:55 {DonM} neg tick price +++++++++++
09:32:56 {DonM} !!!!!!!!!!!
09:33:53 {DonM} come on tick
09:33:55 {DonM} turn
09:34:03 {DonM} price may explode if it does
09:34:56 {DonM} +4
09:34:58 {DonM} holding
09:36:08 {DonM} price still ok
09:36:13 {DonM} despite the putrid tick
09:36:15 {DonM} out most
09:36:19 {DonM} holding some
09:36:41 {DonM} get your butt up
09:36:53 {DonM} 1090 not out of ?
09:37:14 {DonM} patient
09:38:19 {DonM} huge divergence
09:38:21 {DonM} price vs tick
09:38:26 {DonM} price a horse
09:38:27 {DonM} DO NOT SHORT
09:38:37 {DonM} if tick turns
09:40:38 {DonM} TICK TURNING
09:40:44 {DonM} !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
09:42:11 {DonM} +8
09:43:22 {DonM} whew
09:43:23 {DonM} flat for now
09:43:28 {DonM} can run farther
09:43:40 {DonM} took the tick to 0
09:43:45 {DonM} still could go +

Oh there were still a few things I could have done better that will keep me ticked off, including being a bit more alert at 3am and improving the sizing on some of the sequences, but suffice it to say that for the first time in a long time, I'm dead serious about my P&L.

Said another way, I'm mad as hell at my complacency and I'm simply not going to take it anymore. And I'm talking slam the hammer on the thumb, trader transaction tax, Patriots lose a perfect season on a last minute Super Bowl Hail Mary Super Glue Helmet Catch type of mad.

Look out market.

Thursday, November 26, 2009

Thursday Notes - Getting Serious

As we in the states celebrate Thanksgiving, my sudden decision to trade this morning's welcome return to volatility upon discovering the overnight Wile E. Coyote drop (on the heels of the Dubai defaults, and yes, the U.S. market WAS open today until 11:30am ET, along with the rest of the non-turkey eating world) reflects my moving-forward feeling that is all about once again getting serious about my trading.

And I'm talking about dead serious ... serious much like the decision I made almost two years ago to the hour in November 2007 when I decided that 2008 would be my Iron Man Triathlon, World Series, Stanley Cup, Olympics ... you name it.

For I still feel there's far too much complacency in my current approach to trading on the heels of the tremendous successes over the last few years. As a result, I'll be ramping up the seriousness of everything related to my trading ... including the blog.

More to follow.

Yet for now, suffice it to say that it's time to get serious.

It started today.

The turkey is simply ... well ... gravy.

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Special Post - Trader Tax Petition

I just signed the trader tax petition being coordinated by Green & Company.

In addition to sending and supporting Green's outstanding letter, I added the following comments:

Please don't put small business futures traders out of business, or force us to move our liquidity-providing services to foreign markets. A transaction tax will clearly result in lost U.S. trader jobs, while moving market liquidity to foreign nations.

Help us keep these jobs in the U.S., while maintaining the integrity of the U.S. financial markets and ensuring the U.S. markets remain a world leader.

Don Miller
Independent Futures Trader

My thanks to Robert Green for continuing to spearhead the effort.

Please join me in helping stop this nonsense.

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Special Post - Trader Tax Update

Here's the latest from The Hill, which is becoming increasingly troublesome.

On the bright side, there appears to be at least one hopeful sign for those who trade their IRAs: "The bill aims to exempt retirement accounts from the impact of the tax."

And here's my recent post with past relevant links.

Tuesday Notes - A Good "Day"

Dear Diary -

Well, it's 9pm and "today" is just about over. As I look out the window, the sun is setting and my head is about ready to hit the pillow.

And as I look back at the day, "today" was a good day. A very good day. Measured financially, not quite as good as "yesterday", yet a very good day nevertheless. In fact, all things considered, I'd say that "today" was far more satisfying than "yesterday".

"Today" of course started after only a few hours of sleep following "yesterday's" 24-hour trading marathon, which after another early "morning" sprint, began to catch up with me around "noon". And so as "morning" turned into "afternoon", I chose to balance continued trading with capital preservation, while at the same time passing on everything I'd learned over the past two "weeks" to others as I watched them begin their own journeys.

Yet as I lay my head to rest, I am very thankful for "today". For today I was able to walk, think, and breathe on my own, and have been given the incredible gift of opportunity called "tomorrow".


Of course, "today" refers to 2009. Those who have followed me over the years hopefully know that I look at a year much differently than many, for I consider one year to essentially reflect a single "day", and taken one step further, a single "trade". Everything else is simply noise. And for an even more powerful illustration, check out the opening paragraph to January's "Svithjod Rock" post, which was published on the inside cover of the 2009 New York Trader Expo catalog.

For the following two convictions lie at the heart of my spirit.

1. A year is but a speck of time over the course of eternity.
2. Trading income (or any income for that matter) does one thing and one thing only: It buys time. Time to use how -- and when -- we choose to spend it.

Trading is a wonderful business, for we can start, stop, and restart at any time we choose. There are no rules, no board meetings, no needing to meet someone else's goals or expectations. It is, as I said in my January 2005 Interview with Stocks & Commodities Magazine, the "Ultimate Entrepreneurial Experience".

I know that some day in the future when my memory fails me, I won't remember "today" or even "yesterday". Neither will others.

For they will be but grains of sand in the eternal hourglass.

Grains that are unique by themselves when viewed under a microscope, yet only relevant in accumulation.

It seems like "today" has ended for most traders, especially judging by recent ES volumes and extended deadzones.

Yet "tomorrow" will be here soon.

Let's make the best of it before it, too, disappears.

Monday, November 23, 2009

Monday Notes - Rejuvenating

On the heels of the just completed 16-week Jellie marathon, as well as two years of essentially non-stop trading, I'll be spending portions of this week refocusing and rejuvenating the mind, body, and soul.

In the meantime, here's a great link that several blog onlookers emailed me comparing trading to poker.

Friday, November 20, 2009

Friday Notes - Turning the Page

Short post today as I head out of town for the weekend following today's MATD (Morning After Trend Day with as-expected oscillations) and formal completion of the final Jellie effort of 2009.

As for the immediate future, for now, I need to take off the headset and go from simultaneously teaching 100% and trading 80% (yea, I know that doesn't add ... but it really has felt like a 180% effort), to trading 100%. For I will always be a trader first and foremost, as the challenge to compete and strive to fill one's true potential is simply in my blood.

btw, thanks for the continued mail in response to the recent tank transcripts. I'm glad many found them helpful.

The Jellie study session videos will of course remain available, and represent the best value and compilation that I'll likely ever create from an educational perspective -- absent live play-by-play which I may resurrect from time to time. The ADA donation will also continue, in part to remind all of us that life is about helping each other, and I've decided NOT to increase the video price (brokers have told me they're far underpriced) for the same reason.

And of course this blog will continue as well, with all of the corny movie, sports, and motivational analogies and parables.

For this is my journey.

And this is my story.

Time to turn the page and begin a new chapter.

Thursday, November 19, 2009

Thursday Notes - Today's Trade & Tax Update

Trader Transaction Tax Update - Well, it's back on the front burner again: The dreaded and ridiculous trader transaction tax, which if passed, would quickly shift traders to non-U.S. markets and generally kill liquidity.

It's been the topic of multiple emails and blogs throughout the day, and since others can do a far better job discussing it than I can, I'll spare the details and simply provide a few key links:

This week's Green & Company Update (with several key links)
This week's "The Hill" Update
Today's ZeroHedge Update
My initial February 2009 blog entry & follow-up entry

Today's Trade - In terms of today's trade, the explosive first-hour volume said it all, and like Monday's opening surge, I felt we'd have only one or two shots at a premium pullback short entry leveraging off the 5 & 15 minute timeframes, respectively, which is pretty much what occured.

Here are my excerpts from the morning portion of today's tank effort. As was the case last time I posted this, key forward-looking bias comments are in bold red, and you can find Jellie acronym explanations both in the 11/5 transcript post and the dictionary post.

09:36:54 {DonM} 5 min shorts may be good later in day
09:36:56 {DonM} based on the open
09:39:14 {DonM} STRONG volume at open
09:39:17 {DonM} strongest in a long time
09:39:27 {DonM} look at that volume bar
09:41:36 {DonM} 1 min td
09:44:23 {DonM} L
09:44:24 {DonM} LOD stop
09:44:35 {DonM} tick air
09:45:32 {DonM} wow
09:46:19 {DonM} volume a clue
09:46:57 {DonM} needless to say I took first pop toward zero and scr'd the rest
09:46:58 {DonM} fast
09:47:13 {DonM} 5 min definitely in play
09:47:17 {DonM} 1100 definitely in play
09:47:20 {DonM} maybe even 15
09:47:23 {DonM} should be a decent day
09:47:42 {DonM} anyone buying the close getting hammered
09:47:50 {DonM} and it ended in a bullish formation
09:48:31 {DonM} remember news at 10
09:48:35 {DonM} should be fun
09:49:29 {DonM} another td last 1 min drop
09:49:42 {DonM} positive tick shorts may be viable later
09:50:53 {DonM} volume continues
09:52:48 {DonM} lots of channels broken on the open
09:52:51 {DonM} i.e. 120 min
09:53:25 {DonM} NEWS ALERT! 7 minutes
09:54:37 {DonM} L 8825
09:54:50 {DonM} looking for covering before news
09:54:52 {DonM} td
09:55:02 {DonM} +1
09:55:24 {DonM} +1.5
09:55:34 {DonM} one more
09:55:35 {DonM} +1.75
09:55:36 {DonM} +2.00
09:55:37 {DonM} flat
09:55:58 {DonM} mini capitulation
09:56:37 {DonM} that volume was a huge tip-off
09:56:40 {DonM} right off the open
09:57:18 {DonM} wonder what Beaks knows
09:57:29 {DonM} hold onto your hat with the 10am data
09:57:36 {DonM} SOOT
09:58:06 {DonM} as always, contra trend traders have to be nimble
09:58:09 {DonM} and execute sharply
09:58:22 {DonM} if it's not your bag, wait for the latter day pbs
09:58:50 {DonM} flat and SOH as we approach news
09:59:41 {DonM} NEWS ALERT! pending
10:00:36 {DonM} lot of air
10:00:48 {DonM} but
10:00:50 {DonM} but
10:00:50 {DonM} but
10:00:59 {DonM} biased toward shorting pbs

10:01:07 {DonM} reminds me of last week
10:01:10 {DonM} on the major move up
10:01:13 {DonM} limited pbs
10:01:17 {DonM} said we might only have one shot

10:01:19 {DonM} ditto today in reverse
10:01:43 {DonM} assume news was in line
10:01:48 {DonM} curious though
10:01:50 {DonM} ...
10:02:02 {DonM} hmmmmmm
10:02:13 {DonM} Phily Fed blew away estimates
10:02:16 {DonM} and we dropped
10:02:24 {DonM} wow
10:02:37 {DonM} think the party is over
10:02:40 {DonM} ok
10:02:48 {DonM} what levels to short gang??
10:02:53 {DonM} what do we see?
10:02:59 {DonM} longs on air?
10:03:00 {DonM} short pbs?
10:03:02 {DonM} levels?
10:03:40 {DonM} I also assume we're at new level to range
10:03:50 {DonM} upper end of range will be in line with downtrend supports
10:03:55 {DonM} lower end of range divergences, etc
10:04:02 {DonM} now that price has adjusted
10:04:17 {DonM} yea, I was hanging at the 1094s in case data popped us
10:05:01 {DonM} tough given the large opening bars
10:05:16 {DonM} btw the SAFEST way to play that open
10:05:20 {DonM} if you were long biased
10:05:23 {DonM} which I always am
10:05:28 {DonM} (fading the overnight move)
10:05:30 {DonM} is as I've said
10:05:32 {DonM} look for a coil
10:05:40 {DonM} and THEN take a break of an early tight range
10:05:55 {DonM} easy stop if the range breaks the other way
10:07:55 {DonM} time may have to do its thing
10:07:57 {DonM} on pullbacks

10:08:13 {DonM} in about 30 mins, 5 min 15MA should be around 1095
10:08:20 {DonM} eyeballing
10:09:49 {DonM} 5 min 3lb bp is 1095
10:09:59 {DonM} will keep eye on that
10:10:01 {DonM} given the trend start
10:11:47 {DonM} but want to see it today in case we begin wiggling around 1093-1095
10:11:51 {DonM} and I can keep a cool head
10:12:37 {DonM} obviously mkt moved a great extent in a short period of time
10:12:41 {DonM} time has to do its thing now
10:13:00 {DonM} would love to nail the top of the bear flag
10:14:28 {DonM} SOH until I get a price I like
10:14:34 {DonM} I hate shallow pbs as you all know
10:14:38 {DonM} but might be what we get

10:15:44 {DonM} toppy stochs
10:16:35 {DonM} congested area here
10:17:33 {DonM} putting in an order for a pb to 5 min with td, toppy stochs, and a 1 min 3lb turn
10:17:45 {DonM} with a cherry
10:19:49 {DonM} stochs were a good indicator
10:19:55 {DonM} now that we're in new range
10:25:18 {DonM} watch tick next move up
10:27:02 {DonM} S 9225
10:27:20 {DonM} should drop
10:27:56 {DonM} 5 min premise
10:28:00 {DonM} will also short further pop hard
10:28:05 {DonM} +1
10:29:03 {DonM} expecting 9000s
10:29:28 {DonM} still want to read tick on any further pop
10:29:34 {DonM} but trading what I have
10:29:37 {DonM} in case that was it
10:29:48 {DonM} sitting at 9075
10:30:09 {DonM} fills on asks TOUGH
10:30:30 {DonM} no way this won't fill
10:30:32 {DonM} lol
10:31:08 {DonM} would be shocked

10:31:52 {DonM} +1.5
10:32:19 {DonM} +2
10:32:20 {DonM} flat
10:33:05 {DonM} 5 min 15MA about where I expected at 10:30
10:33:14 {DonM} 1094ish with SHARP angle
10:33:33 {DonM} we didn't get TICK div
10:33:48 {DonM} but as I said earlier, ANY positive tick reading likely good short
10:34:12 {DonM} 09:49:42 {DonM} positive tick shorts may be viable later
10:34:21 {DonM} name of game is knowing what to look for

10:34:24 {DonM} given the conditions
10:34:25 {DonM} adapt
10:34:33 {DonM} any td I would have been HEAVY
10:34:38 {DonM} but I took what was there
10:35:22 {DonM} yea, had to get SOMETHING on
10:35:28 {DonM} no excuse will scaling principle
10:35:30 {DonM} worst case
10:35:34 {DonM} you make a LITTLE money
10:35:38 {DonM} I can live with that
10:35:41 {DonM} as I wait for the outlier
10:36:07 {DonM} tds would have been ideal
10:36:11 {DonM} but the selling has been strong
10:36:13 {DonM} and you know
10:36:20 {DonM} that many will bail at ANY chance to get out
10:36:27 {DonM} those Ls who were stuck
10:36:34 {DonM} and thus why this works
10:37:07 {DonM} still like any deep retracement
10:37:09 {DonM} for Short
10:38:17 {DonM} we actually DID have stoch div
10:38:19 {DonM} on range chart
10:41:12 {DonM} yea, a lot of things happened at that open
10:41:15 {DonM} 1100 lost
10:41:18 {DonM} globex low lost
10:41:21 {DonM} 120 support lost
10:41:22 {DonM} volume
10:41:23 {DonM} etc
10:41:57 {DonM} again, I can't stress enough
10:42:00 {DonM} IF you want to fade gaps
10:42:07 {DonM} which I bias toward all the time
10:42:23 {DonM} using an initial tight range or hard stop on low
10:42:26 {DonM} ideal
10:42:31 {DonM} to keep you in SOOT
10:42:37 {DonM} I was long at the open
10:42:46 {DonM} and got long a few times
10:42:54 {DonM} but when the range gave way
10:43:00 {DonM} ALL premise was lost
10:43:24 {DonM} you can see when I stopped the fishing expedition
10:43:35 {DonM} and saved a 6 point headache
10:44:20 {DonM} just inbred
10:44:29 {DonM} I know I can ALWAYS get right back in
10:44:34 {DonM} remember that webinar slide
10:44:37 {DonM} of my sequences
10:44:43 {DonM} where I had to reenter at HIGHER price
10:44:55 {DonM} today is why!
10:45:04 {DonM} yes, and I was crazy bullish again today
10:47:21 {DonM} I'm always siding with the fade
10:47:24 {DonM} ALWAYS
10:47:30 {DonM} 70%+ probability
10:47:35 {DonM} guestimate
10:47:44 {DonM} whatever the real #
10:47:54 {DonM} suffice it to say the TENDENCY is to reverse
10:48:02 {DonM} as you open in wholesale conditions
10:48:34 {DonM} I was actually tighter with today's stop
10:48:37 {DonM} than I was on that one
10:49:03 {DonM} when ticks didn't hold
10:49:14 {DonM} I scidaddled
10:49:47 {DonM} all upticks being met with selling
10:50:20 {DonM} note how ALL positive ticks
10:50:24 {DonM} been sold
10:51:20 {DonM} I'm not shorting all of these
10:51:26 {DonM} but at least I know what I'm NOT doing
10:51:31 {DonM} and that's half the battle
10:51:33 {DonM} defense
10:52:15 {DonM} I got my one decent trade
10:52:18 {DonM} ok with that
10:52:46 {DonM} there's always Friday MATD if this trends all day
10:56:49 {DonM} already liking tomorrow's trade
10:56:57 {DonM} regardless of what happens rest of day

10:57:04 {DonM} several key levels
10:58:04 {DonM} some news from Tradestion on my inquiry
10:58:08 {DonM} re: Eurex
10:58:13 {DonM} To All Eurex Data Subscribers,
This week, Eurex began sending synthetic trades that are resulting in data spikes. We are in the process of modifying the code to eliminate these synthetic trades. This issue is of the highest priority and we are working to resolve it ASAP. Reinaldo TradeStation Securities, Inc.
11:03:11 {DonM} next push down will be #3 on 5 min
11:03:14 {DonM} if it occurs
11:03:39 {DonM} air on 15, 30, 60
11:03:41 {DonM} tough place
11:04:04 {DonM} enough stuck longs for another push?
11:06:45 {DonM} VIX suggests possible new leg

11:10:38 {DonM} been SOH here
11:10:42 {DonM} just watching
11:10:45 {DonM} got my one trade
11:10:47 {DonM} trade
11:10:58 {DonM} waiting for more obvious capitulation
11:11:04 {DonM} or sharper pb
11:11:04 {DonM} now
11:11:09 {DonM} will let rest go without me

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Wednesday Notes - Pruned & Primed

First, let's address today's trade, part of which I'll put into the "sometimes it's better to be lucky than good" category as I closed my final DAX trade a mere eight minutes before a two hour exchange halt as Eurex has stumbled and bumbled though a new software release this week. The conversion has also been creating havoc with charts since they made the change, which are essentially useless given delayed tick reporting.

The funny thing is, Eurex issued a press release this morning prior to the halt touting the tremendous "success" of its launch!

Anyway, today's trade had range and triangles written all over it given the lack of overnight extension (most day-after-consolidation range breaks have occurred in the Europe session over the past several months), and lots of "air" between the market and current long term trend supports.

Fortunately, the extent of the air provided ample range to adjust to conditions, even if one misread the market early on looking for a hard break of the prior day range which had been my initial bias prior to the lazy Europe session -- which was further exacerbated by the exchange issues. And such was the case in my own trading today, where screaming price vs. TICK divergences off key support/resistance levels seemed to signal almost every turn.

2009 Pruning

Last weekend, I was listening to a motivational podcast in my car (which was also summarized on the author's blog today ... talk about coincidence), where I was reminded that pruning is an essential part of growth and life. For while we'd love to live in a perpetual state of growth, it would be unhealthy from a future growth perspective -- just as a plant can't experience new growth until pruning occurs.

Most who have followed these virtual pages know that last year was a year of tremendous financial growth for this trader who was crazy enough to make a number of sacrifices to live, breathe, and sleep this business non-stop for well over a year, while pushing as hard as one could humanly push oneself. And if you recall, I didn't fully understand why it was happening at the time.

Similarly, most also know that such pace had to come to an end (which I warned of several times during the record run), which it did in late spring/early summer when it became apparent that my motivation and focus had all but run dry given the fact that (1): I was burned out, and (2) as a result of many years of accumulated labor, I simply didn't "need" to trade anymore ... ever. And again, I didn't understand "why" it was happening.

And thus was born the Jellie concept and efforts, where I chose to essentially both undergo and provide a "trading blood" transfusion. And while physically, the last four months of constant live instruction and trading (a reminder I always require that I trade to best teach ... don't get me on my soapbox again) have drained me as much as trading ever has, it's a feeling of -- well -- having been "pruned", as in just having given blood. I'm tired, yet have a strange feeling of invigoration.

Many would give their eye teeth for the financial year I had this year. The first quarter alone exceeded what many will make in a full year, and the close is shaping up nicely. Yet for me, 2009 was a personal year of pruning. Certainly not in the financial sense as I'll end the year with far more capital than when I began, as well as on what will be a multi-month equity high.

Yet more in the intangible sense as I had to survive a summer financial plateau which at the time was incredibly frustrating for me, a multi-year personal energy trough, and 16 weeks of putting my own self-interests aside -- not to mention that famous bump on the head that seemed to serve as the ultimate metaphor for parts of my year. Oh, and I of course also "pruned" close to 30 pounds.

Call it a season of pruning after a season of incredible Bamboo growth.

Frankly -- as I look closely -- I can already see the new growth.

And wouldn't you know it, it's green.

btw, if you're going through your own period of painful trading "pruning", and are wondering "why now" and "why me", perhaps it's because you're being prepared for incredible new growth.

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Tuesday Notes - Blog Break

Posts will resume on Wednesday.

Monday, November 16, 2009

Monday Notes - Mailbag Links

Here are a few relevant links from recent onlooker emails:

A very nice and relevant talk from Richard St. John who reminds us that success is a constant journey. Richard does a great job illustrating many of the same lessons I've learned in my own journey, especially during the recent years of tremendous blessing and early summer temporary plateau.

A recent interview with Howard Lederer discussing the similarities of poker and trading.

And a nice reminder of Charles Schultz' philosophy from one kind reader responding to the Jellie and blog efforts, from which we could all take a page.

I do read and respond to all emails -- although please keep in mind it may take a day or two given my focus on my trading business -- and the best way to contact me is at

Also, a reminder that you can follow me via Twitter at where I post blog updates, and will look to use it even more productively in 2010.

Sunday, November 15, 2009

The Weekend Trader - The Shovel

Some weekend thoughts as we gear up for the NFL game of the year between the beloved/hated (depends on your perspective) Pats and Colts tonight.

My Greatest Asset - While it's true I trade a multi-million dollar account that I grew -- and continue to grow -- entirely through trading, I've often said that the greatest asset in my trading business will never be marked by dollar signs.

In fact, you'll never be able to see or touch it, as it isn't any of the components that comprise the tangible infrastructure of my charting, execution, or broker platforms. And no, it's not my infamous Sony Vaio laptop.

Rather it's the intangible asset of confidence.

For if I ever had to choose between losing any of my tangible assets -- including portions of my capital -- or my confidence, I'd let go of the physical property in a heartbeat.

You see, physical property can always be replaced. Yet without confidence, there can be no future income. The future might as well have ended yesterday.

Then again, perhaps confidence is a tangible asset.

For I consider it the shovel that mines all untapped opportunity.

Check out the first video below for a visual reminder.

What Motivates Me - And speaking of confidence, here's a short list of that which drives me ... none of which should be a surprise to longtime blog onlookers:

The never-ending search for excellence, losing, getting knocked down, apathy (including my own apathy), naysayers (including that other inner voice on the other shoulder), critics, and limited thinkers.

As the second video below reminds us, "Do just once what others say you can't do, and you will never pay attention to their limitations again." James Cook

Such aptly defines my approach to life.

btw, check out this link that a reader sent in describing an "immortal jellyfish". Now that sounds like something to shoot for!

Mark it Down - MF Global and the CME are firming up plans for their participation at the 2010 Trader Expo in New York, and I've been asked to be a part of the effort. And while I continue to purposely limit any personal appearances to maintain focus on my own trading business, I've agreed to attend and am considering holding a one-time drawing for a Jellie Webinar Video Series. Plus, my wife simply loves New York and probably wouldn't speak to me if I said no.

I'll provide more details as they firm up.

Friday, November 13, 2009

Friday Notes - Today's Trade Bias

In today's post, I talk about how we chose to approach Friday's market in the tank, as well as my views on 2009 and the future of the blog.

Have a great weekend.

Thursday, November 12, 2009

Thursday Notes - Poker Night

Posts will resume on Friday.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Wednesday Notes - Smelling Blood

Those who have looked over my shoulder over the years know I trade best when focused, motivated, and -- frankly pi$$ed off.

And such was the case one time last week when the team saw me get downright mad at sub-optimizing a sequence, after which I took it out of the market in such a way where ... well, suffice it to say that you didn't want to be on the other side of my trades.

For I smelled the blood on a consolidation break where longs were stuck in losing positions, and I proceeded to hammer away at the market by shorting every uptick in sight on a major downtrend, often adding to my position at times to create one of those outlier weekly trades that brings home the bacon.

One of the key aspects I drilled into the Jellie teams this year is to remember that every time they enter a position and are correct on the current market bias (which should be the vast majority of the time), they're putting the trader(s) on the other side of the trade in a losing position, who will have to act which will further move the market in their direction.

And the more we're right, and -- as we get better and armed with more capital -- the more size we establish, the more the "other guy's" resulting actions will provide us with profit.

Ever catch yourself "lolly gagging" into a trade without emotion based on some stupid pattern in some stupid book? Do you view charts as patterns and not people who have previously acted or have to act? Do you not trade thinking about the trader on the other side of your trade?

If so, you'll likely be spinning your wheels forever as you fail to "get" what trading is all about.

You have to make it personal.

You have to smell blood.

In the words of Rocky's coach, the "market" isn't a machine ... it's a man.

Monday, November 9, 2009

Monday Notes - Blog Break

Notes will resume on Wednesday.

Sunday, November 8, 2009

The Weekend "Player" - In the Money

As many know, many of my weekends include continuing to enjoy and sharpen my poker game, which subconsciously helps my trading focus while allowing me to forget about trading for a few days at the "conscious" level ... if you know what I mean.

So following up on yesterday's poker-trading comparison post, this weekend consisted of my making a somewhat shorter 107 mile trek north to Rockingham, NH -- versus my usual 130 mile trip to Foxwoods -- to check out the "Rock's" poker room.

I actually wasn't going to do much else than home and yard chores, yet I woke up feeling unusually focused, got my chores done by noon, and then made the drive on a beautiful fall day in New England to play in their 2pm tourney.

And for the next 7 1/2 hours, I played my best poker ever amidst a field of 120 -- with zero mental mistakes and several solid calls, all-ins, and strong folds -- ultimately ending up in the money in 12th after a rather odd beat on the last hand ... more on that in a bit.

Highlights included:

- Playing 3-4 well (no pre-flop raisers) when the flop came A-2-5 to give me an instant "wheel" (Ace thru 5 straight), at which point I checked and then just called the bettors. The turn came 6, where I repeated the same play with two others still in the pot. The river then came K ... another great card as I still couldn't be beat and likely would have gotten anyone with A-K in deep trouble. At that point the initial better bet strong, got called by player #2, at which point I went over the top all-in and got both to call. The result was my $9K stack going to about $30K in one hand.

- Losing the minimum twice, even though each hand played out where I really believed I had the best hand. In both cases the play was checked down to the river where the final card gave me top pair with a solid kicker. One time the river was a K where I held K-Q, and another time it was a J where I held K-J. In both cases I was beat by the same guy that held A-K and A-J, respectively.

- Keeping my tourney life alive during a sequence where I held an Ace high straight throughout the play, but lost on the river. The hand played out that I held A-9, and the flop came 10-J-Q (with 2 diamonds). Action was checked around at which point a K hit on the turn. I bet about 3/4 of the pot, and got called by a solid player with the chip lead (instant warning!). The only hands I could put him on (I was also playing very tight ... and he knew it), were trips (3 of a kind), my same hand, or a lower straight. The turn then came 3 of diamonds, where I put in a value bet (small bet to encourage a call, without sacrificing too many of my chips if I was wrong), at which point he went over the top all-in.

After thinking about it, and as weak as that river card seemed, I realized he had to be holding either my same hand, a lower end straight (unlikely though since I was playing tight-aggressive), or two diamonds. I correctly put him on the diamond flush (he also had the low-end straight which is why he kept calling), and laid down the Ace high straight. Jellie lesson: When the premise for holding your trade disappears -- no matter how good it looked at one time, get out of dodge! The hand cost me about 1/3 of my stack, but at least I was still alive to play, and later came back to make the final 12.

- And finally, losing on a sick play by an amateur where I was 12th and short-stacked, got dealt pockets 5s, and pushed my remaining chips in. Believe it or not, the guy calls with J-2! Of course, the flop then came 2-2-3, and there was no 5 to be had on the turn or river. One of the challenges in this tourney was that there were "bounty" rewards any time you knocked out an opponent, which likely (at least I hope!) factored into his pretty stupid call, which he'd lose the vast majority of the time.


All in all, as frustrating as the last hand was, I was very pleased with my play as I really didn't make any mental errors in the 7 1/2 hour grueling session, which was one thing I'd been working on in my game as I usually have one or two blind spots as to hands that can beat me, which also occasionally happens in my trading game if I lose sight of higher timeframes.

Let's hope that play carries over to the trading "table".

Saturday, November 7, 2009

The Weekend Trader - The Ultimate Game

I have been both humbled and honored in recent days as the result of continued emails in support of recent blogging efforts, including a flood thanking me for Thursday's tank transcript (which I've added to the key post menu at the lower left) while others made some rather startling comparisons to a few prominent poker players that have greatly humbled this trader.

So given the current spotlight on the 2009 World Series of Poker final table which takes place this weekend, I thought I'd have some fun and provide my own perspective to some of the comparisons -- while adding a few of my own -- which in turn may help me further refine my goals for 2010 and beyond.

Howard Lederer "The Poker Professor" - I'll start off with one that may actually be the best comparison, as after proving his success over the years, Howard has had to often choose between his playing and non-playing efforts. In addition to continuing to play, he's often seen as a TV analyst and is one of the owners and founders of Full Tilt Poker. And while I wasn't obese like "Bubba" as he had to undergo gastric bypass surgery to lose weight, I suppose there's at least a tiny similarity as I worked hard over the last few months to shed 25 pounds.

Mike Sexton "The Ambassador of Poker" - Mike is perhaps best known as the announcer for the World Poker Tour, yet remains an active and successful player even at the age of 62. Today, Mike will become the 38th person to be inducted in the Poker Hall of Fame, after having earned more than $3.7 Million in career poker winnings. Mike also does a great deal of charity work, and I while I doubt I should be even mentioned in the same breath as Mike, I suppose there are at least a few similarities in terms of his amount of winnings and his blend of playing & non-playing contributions.

Jeff & Barry Shulman - The Shulmans are both key principles of Card Player Magazine, while also continuing to be successful at the table. Jeff is of course one of the 2009 Final Table "November Nine" players who will square off this weekend, while Barry recently won the WSOP Europe Title by defeating 333 other players.

Barry recently commented that he "... started to focus more on my business at Card Player. Since then, I have not been playing as hard. Now, I'm back on the winning trail and feeling very good about it." Been there done that.

Daniel Negreanu "Kid Poker" - In losing to Barry as a result of a two-outer on the river (he could only lose to one of two cards) at the WSOPE, Daniel twittered "Those two key hands will make you hate poker". And while I'm no "kid" anymore, his recent comment sounds like how I feel after a bat beat or poor day of play. Like the other players mentioned, Daniel also has various business interests in the poker community, and can frequently be found commenting on many poker TV sessions.

Phil Helmuth "Poker Brat" - Believe it or not, one person a few months ago compared my ego to that of the brat himself. Hopefully, the only similarity here is that we both appeared in a 2003 side-by-side interview with TradingMarkets. In my opinion, while Phil is one of the most gifted players in the world, he's downright arrogant and degrading to others who haven't yet reached his level of success. If I EVER sound like that, please slap me.

Chris Moneymaker - And yes, a few have compared me to Chris who was a "one-hit wonder" in winning the 2003 WSOP main event, who did little before then and essentially nothing afterward. Those comparisons are likely from those who didn't know me prior to that first blog post in July 2008, or who don't know the details of this year's strong P&L.

btw, if you're ever bored, go to the site and do a search for Don Miller. In doing so, you'll find hundreds of posts from when I used to do TM's feature daily commentary. Here's one small sample. (And yes, I had as intense feelings then as I do now.)


So what does any of this have to do with my planning for 2010?

Well, I'm continuing to noodle over the flood of recommendations from my October 18 post, and have not yet charted my course.

Part of me wishes I could continue the intense Jellie-type trader training, which wildly surpassed my expectations in terms of participant feedback, industry support, and results. For I know full well that such a non-stop full-immersion experience over a month's time is absolutely the best way to learn this business, whether it be with me or some other successful trader. And many, including a few Jellie brokers, have asked me to continue providing the service.

Yet as I've mentioned in recent posts, the energy required to do so -- and in the right way -- is simply intense, and I'm only one person. And in case you ever wondered, every single pixel on this blog, the educational site, and every aspect of the Jellie Webinars and daily tank training, are 100% my own effort. I have zero staff or outside help, including any administrative or tech support. It's truly a one-person effort.

Plus, as much as I enjoy teaching, I simply love trading -- and one can't do both well simultaneously. And as I mentioned the other day, my income drops when I teach.

So my current plan -- STC as we say in the tank (Subject to Change) -- is to continue to provide trader education by keeping the Jellie Study Session videos available at the discounted price, which will allow me the time and focus during the trading day to take my personal trading to an even higher level. And while I may do an occasional live Jellie effort in the future, it will likely be on a very occasional basis.

I suppose like Lederer, Sexton, et al, the last decade of work and outpouring of support have provided me options. And I still believe -- despite the success of the Jellie effort -- that we can do even more good in this industry whose surface we have still barely scratched.

i.e. Has anyone ever had the guts to trade live on TV every day for the whole world to see???

Including pocket cams of trading "hole cards"???

Talk about raising the bar another notch in terms of transparency.

erhaps that would be the ultimate game.

Don't put it past me.

Friday, November 6, 2009

Friday Notes - R&R

Getting some R&R tonight.

Thursday, November 5, 2009

Thursday Notes - Today's Tank Transcript

Since many of you have asked to peek inside our team trading "tank", tonight's blog entry consists of the written transcript from today's tank session.

Keep in mind we have two rooms: one consisting of the final Jellie educational team (a small group who I committed to help train as I transition back to full-time trader) and the ongoing networked team of previous Jellies which receives my comments via simulcast. This transcript is from the smaller room.

Also please keep in mind that most of my comments, detailed narration, and responses are provided to the teams via audio (the traders type; I speak and type) and live chart snapshots, which obviously are excluded, yet the written chat log should give you a good feel for the general content.

I've changed the trader names to generic "TraderX" for confidentiality purposes, while also providing some acronym explanations in blue italics, as we communicate throughout the day via shorthand. You can also find some of the abbreviated shorthand explained in my earlier Jellie Dictionary Post. Critical market bias comments are in bold red.

I hope you enjoy this rare look into how we use multiple sets of professional eyes and a strong support network to determine and trade the market bias throughout the day. In today's case, we determined the strong early bullish bias from the outset.

11/5/09 Jellie Tank Transcript

09:29:12 {DonM} OK, focus time
09:30:27 {DonM} ok, market session #2 (Session #2 refers to the general U.S. Session; Session #1 is the Europe and U.S. overnight session which we often trade from 3am to 9:30am ET.)
09:30:29 {DonM} let's go
09:31:09 {DonM} somewhat NML at open (NML = No Man's Land)
09:31:11 {DonM} SOH
09:31:39 {DonM} right in the middle of Wed logjam
09:31:50 {Trader1} agree on NML We're right near the price where FOMC news was released
09:31:50 {DonM} I have zero bias
09:33:23 {DonM} no rush to trade here
09:36:28 {DonM} 49 may be interim support

09:37:21 {Trader2} Been on the bid at 49 for a while
09:37:35 {DonM} 3lb short (3lb = Three Line Break)
09:38:16 {Trader2} ok
09:40:28 {Trader3} I had a bid in for a scalp but didn't get hit...
09:42:44 {DonM} L 5025 (L = Long; Price reflects S&P E-Mini)
09:43:46 {DonM} +1.25
09:43:51 {Trader1} L 50.5
09:43:55 {DonM} ticks seem ok
09:44:07 {Trader1} had tick above 0, seemed to be R-> S @ 49's (R -> S = Prior Resistance Equals Support)
09:44:10 {DonM} holding some
09:45:05 {DonM} 3lb L
09:45:16 {DonM} scr rest (scr = Scratch)
09:46:07 {DonM} back in
09:46:12 {Trader1} fill 52.25
09:46:22 {DonM} whew
09:46:24 {DonM} got in in time
09:46:41 {DonM} +2
09:46:52 {DonM} nice
09:46:56 {DonM} +2.5
09:47:03 {Trader1} +1.5 on half position
09:47:08 {Trader1} free riding for 55.75
09:47:12 {DonM} flat
09:47:14 {DonM} 54
09:48:00 {DonM} nice combo
09:48:05 {DonM} oversold range stochs
09:48:08 {DonM} 3lb long
09:48:12 {DonM} ticks ok
09:48:16 {DonM} break from 1 min triangle
09:48:19 {DonM} 5 min support
09:48:24 {DonM} 4 premises
09:49:12 {DonM} VIX also moving down
09:49:27 {DonM} essentially we opened in a 5 min cup for general session

09:49:33 {Trader1} I used TUB on 49 res to support w/ 5min support & ticks (TUB = Trust Until Broken)
09:49:34 {DonM} plus we had the 49-50 support from premkt
09:49:39 {DonM} ok, now where
09:49:45 {DonM} SOH for the moment (SOH = Sitting on Hands)
09:49:51 {Trader1} 1055 is where bulls had problems yesterday
09:49:52 {DonM} yes Trader 1
09:49:58 {DonM} I gave up a smidge on exit
09:50:04 {DonM} thankfully, got back in
09:50:16 {Trader1} you were so fast in reentry. very nice.
09:50:35 {Trader1} 55.75 out last 1/2
09:50:39 {DonM} very nice Trader 1
09:50:42 {DonM} outstanding
09:50:45 {Trader1} thank you
09:50:52 {DonM} he got 3.5 on that
09:52:17 {DonM} Trader1 is buying lunch
09:52:29 {Trader1} sure am
09:52:35 {DonM} ok
09:52:36 {Trader1} goal now is to stay focused on next opportunity
09:52:39 {DonM} 5 min premise in tact
09:52:42 {DonM} yes
09:53:15 {DonM} 53-54 developing support zone
09:53:49 {DonM} 15 min possible cup
09:53:51 {DonM} developing
09:54:28 {DonM} ticks strong
09:54:32 {DonM} 1st pb should be ok
09:54:41 {DonM} I think
09:54:42 {DonM} lol
09:54:48 {DonM} VIX ok
09:54:49 {DonM} ticks ok
09:54:53 {DonM} 3lb ok
09:55:07 {DonM} might only get one shot at this
09:56:07 {DonM} I think % is on pullback entries
09:56:08 {DonM} vs shorts
09:56:13 {DonM} let me know if you disagree
09:56:32 {DonM} may have to wait though

09:56:47 {Trader3} You are looking at buying into 54-55 support, no?
09:57:07 {DonM} yes Trader3
09:57:20 {DonM} still below Wed high
09:57:33 {DonM} bit of an issue, but not too concerned as I'd be out before then anyway
09:57:57 {DonM} tick pbs only (PB = Pullbacks)
09:58:05 {DonM} missed it
09:58:52 {DonM} sensing a creeper day
09:58:57 {DonM} like I said
09:59:01 {DonM} might only get one shot at a pb
09:59:11 {DonM} ticks inside Wed range
09:59:15 {DonM} price also so far

09:59:23 {Trader1} I saw it trade at 55.50 for only a brief moment as tick neared 0
09:59:26 {Trader1} and then it took off
09:59:27 {DonM} the higher we go, the better the 15 cup premise (15 cup = 15 Minute Bullish Cup & Handle Emerging)
09:59:38 {DonM} not chasing
09:59:52 {DonM} if this is true trend, should have one good entry
10:00:46 {DonM} careful on shorts gang

10:00:49 {DonM} THIS IS STRONG
10:01:09 {Trader3 15m bull cup should extend from here....
10:01:13 {DonM} all signs point to longs on pbs
10:01:22 {DonM} yesterday high test though
10:01:38 {DonM} considering covering any shorts on ticks pbs
10:01:44 {DonM} and focus on Ls

10:02:20 {DonM} really like that 15 min cup
10:03:18 {DonM} tick to 0
10:04:04 {DonM} ticks matching Wed high

10:04:06 {Trader1} air on timeframes 5 and higher, but uptrend seems quite strong, makes shorts tougher to pulloff without getting run over... is this your thinking? (Air = Excessive gap between price and supports)
10:04:21 {DonM} yes Trader 1 ... although air principles always valid
10:04:35 {DonM} one in other room is TUBBING the air and yesterday high
10:04:40 {DonM} so pick your optoin
10:04:51 {Trader1} if he got a good fill at yest HOD then he did well. awesome (HOD = High of Day)
10:05:10 {Trader1} it would be unusual to cut straight thru it...
10:05:12 {DonM} he was early but held
10:05:16 {Trader1} v nice.
10:06:12 {Trader2} L 6.25
10:06:25 {DonM} going L on pbs
10:06:30 {DonM} want deeper
10:06:36 {DonM} but L on tick pbs
10:07:10 {DonM} 54 is 3lb break price
10:07:35 {Trader2} scr +1
10:07:37 {DonM} tough fills STRONG
10:07:55 {DonM} bids not filling
10:08:02 {Trader1} v nice timing Trader2. Good hold.. saw u had a lil heat there.
10:08:18 {Trader2} 1 tic heat
10:08:21 {Trader2} :)
10:08:40 {DonM} want 54s for prime entries
10:08:47 {DonM} but probing small on all pbs so far
10:08:58 {Trader4} got .75 on that thanks Don
10:09:46 {DonM} L 56
10:10:06 {DonM} TUBing 3lb
10:10:33 {DonM} may need to back and fill abit
10:10:48 {DonM} that tick drop got bought hard
10:11:11 {DonM} now what
10:11:19 {Trader3} I'm crying because I was 5.25 bid.... *sigh*
10:11:19 {DonM} 5 min flag maybe
10:11:24 {DonM} 54-57
10:12:17 {DonM} tick tri
10:12:33 {DonM} range stochs should pop
10:12:35 {DonM} oversold on support
10:12:45 {DonM} midrange but price holding
10:12:58 {DonM} up to mkt now
10:13:00 {DonM} as always
10:13:13 {DonM} 53-54 better zone for buys
10:13:47 {Trader3} L 55.75
10:13:56 {Trader3} oops 55.50
10:15:58 {DonM} nice fills guys
10:16:02 {DonM} in lock step
10:16:03 {Trader1} this is very familiar to me. bulls need to hold 55
10:18:39 {DonM} need 56+ to pop
10:18:53 {DonM} tick tri

10:22:32 {DonM} whew
10:22:36 {DonM} s/b ok now
10:22:56 {Trader3} out at 6.75
10:23:03 {Trader2} add at 55.25 and another +1
10:23:36 {Trader5} looking for 5750 final
10:23:56 {DonM} scaling
10:24:00 {Trader2} Nice out for +4 total
10:24:01 {DonM} out
10:24:23 {DonM} holding some
10:24:33 {DonM} had one quickie scratch and immediate reentry on that drop
10:27:41 {Trader5} flat 57
10:28:19 {DonM} still bulish
10:29:38 {Trader3} Air on vix is bearish short term.....
10:29:53 {Trader1} short 56 75
10:30:00 {Trader2} I don't see it but the volume is net short at present
10:30:15 {DonM} range resistance agree
10:31:20 {DonM} still say up
10:31:44 {Trader3} Jellie Divergence
10:32:17 {Trader2} Nice Tick triangle developing
10:32:53 {DonM} still biased L on pbs
10:32:57 {DonM} taking some off
10:33:00 {DonM} and always holding some
10:33:01 {DonM} in case
10:33:04 {DonM} free rolls
10:33:18 {DonM} patience gang
10:33:21 {DonM} this is strong

10:36:36 {DonM} COILED

10:36:52 {Trader1} scr 58
10:37:18 {DonM} weee
10:37:53 {DonM} I'm pushing this
10:37:58 {DonM} exiting up here though
10:38:05 {DonM} hit it hard
10:38:29 {DonM} holding small
10:38:32 {DonM} exiting on further pop
10:38:58 {DonM} FLAT
10:39:01 {DonM} +3.25
10:39:50 {Trader3} good cover Trader1!
10:39:55 {DonM} ok prior resistance now support
10:39:56 {Trader1} lol...
10:40:06 {Trader1} yea I didnt want to be stuck on that
10:33:21 {DonM} this is strong
10:40:36 {DonM} just had to wait

10:40:57 {DonM} thanks
10:41:08 {Trader5} got a piece of that but not large enough... patience, and experience will come
10:41:11 {DonM} nice comeback Trader6! (Trader6 was in other Room)
10:41:17 {DonM} hope I got you on the right side
10:41:29 {DonM} sweet!
10:42:11 {DonM} power of the tank
10:42:14 {DonM} DON'T FADE THE TANK
10:42:16 {DonM} :-)
10:42:24 {Trader5} the tank rules
10:42:26 {DonM} that's why I kept looking around and asking
10:42:30 {DonM} I wanted to stay objective
10:42:38 {DonM} but I saw zero signs of weakness
10:42:45 {DonM} and that coil was building
10:42:54 {DonM} someone was going to get hurt hard
10:43:02 {DonM} and signs all said shorts would be the stuckees

10:43:19 {Trader5} 1st test of yesterdays high held, 2nd one failed... multiple pullbacks.. "i dont trust em", Don Miller, Webinar #6
10:43:34 {Trader2} Volume now net + - shorts were stuck up there
10:44:28 {Trader3} The coil was sloping up too - should I read that as a sign of strength as well?
10:45:18 {Trader5} Should we be watching 3rd push into noon? 2 pushes now
10:47:24 {DonM} going for a brief walk
10:47:27 {DonM} back in 10-15
10:47:39 {Trader2} 64 = high of 10/29
10:58:50 {DonM} got some air out there
10:58:53 {DonM} even on the 5

11:00:12 {DonM} 12 point run from session open ... 20 point run from globex lows ... may need to back and fill
11:00:32 {DonM} noon fade into third push possible
11:00:49 {DonM} ticks a horse
11:01:08 {DonM} air concerning though for Ls
11:01:56 {Trader3} Agree on the 3rd push premise....
11:02:09 {DonM} I'm SOH
11:02:12 {DonM} too much air for me

11:02:28 {Trader3} ok I'm mainly waiting to short the noon push should it appear
11:05:18 {Trader2} 3LB short
11:05:36 {DonM} yes Trader2
11:05:37 {DonM} good eye
11:05:44 {DonM} other room also mentioned it
11:06:07 {Trader3} last time it went short was 10 points ago...
11:06:08 {DonM} just not sure how much more mojo left
11:13:16 {DonM} Restating: 09:58:52 {DonM} sensing a creeper day
11:13:24 {DonM} seems the case
11:17:45 {DonM} traders seem tired given yesterday's late and today's early action after that last squeeze
11:17:53 {DonM} feel it

11:18:07 {DonM} helluva exit Trader7 (Trader7 is in other room)
11:18:09 {DonM} in other room
11:18:14 {DonM} bailing at 6175
11:22:57 {Trader3} me too - but I didn't
11:23:25 {Trader3} seems like it is usually good for a point
11:27:19 {DonM} too tight a range for me up here
11:27:25 {DonM} even for me
11:27:29 {DonM} that's tight
11:27:46 {DonM} feels like splitting atoms

11:27:57 {DonM} any pop over 60 or strong ticks
11:28:00 {DonM} good exit imo
11:38:02 {Trader3} We could still get a noon push out of this - uptrend is still intact....
11:38:32 {Trader2} Big report tomorrow too
11:38:48 {Trader2} nfp (NFP = Non-Farm Payrolls)
11:44:33 {DonM} I hate to even suggest we look at the daily
11:44:38 {DonM} you know me
11:44:44 {DonM} so consider at your own risk:
11:45:48 {Trader1} why is looking at the daily not typically advised?
11:46:23 {DonM} not usually relevant for intraday activity henry
11:46:26 {DonM} too far out
11:46:32 {Trader1} oh, right.
11:46:44 {DonM} sort of like driving down the street with a telescope
11:48:33 {Trader1} I was thinking to short 60.. I didnt have much of a premise except 3lb
11:48:33 {DonM} not thrilled about the 15 min 15ma angle
11:48:41 {DonM} and ADX

11:48:44 {DonM} thought this might happen
11:48:54 {Trader1} 3lb + air..
11:49:07 {DonM} back into range
11:50:28 {DonM} scalped the -800 tick
11:50:31 {DonM} but got out quick
11:50:42 {Trader3} me too got .50
11:50:51 {DonM} nice Trader3
11:51:00 {Trader3} :-)
11:51:35 {DonM} well, I'll say this
11:51:39 {DonM} good reads on the air team
11:51:44 {DonM} was an issue up there
11:51:59 {DonM} sometimes we (I) can lose sight of that

11:52:04 {Trader2} I'm off home...see ya in a bit
11:52:05 {DonM} when we stare at the lesser timeframes
11:52:06 {Trader1} market tempted me to chase the bull but the air definitely made me hesitate...
11:52:10 {DonM} good Trader1
11:52:17 {Trader3} I'll stand by my earlier VIX comment was bearish but a bit early....
11:52:31 {DonM} yes
11:53:29 {DonM} now stuck bulls again
11:54:16 {Trader3} I agree with your assessment - bulls and bears have felt a lot of pain the last week or so, so the tendency will be for things to die down a bit
11:54:34 {DonM} td (td = Tick vs. Price Divergence)
11:56:41 {DonM} new tick lows
11:56:57 {DonM} not crazy about fighting the 1 min
11:58:57 {Trader1} L 6.25 small size scalp
11:59:28 {DonM} no fill here
11:59:40 {Trader5} I'll be back by 4... see you guys
12:00:01 {DonM} L 5625
12:00:33 {Trader3} noon time too
12:00:54 {DonM} rangs stochs o/s
12:01:29 {DonM} 30 min better than than the 15 imo
12:02:19 {DonM} sweeeet
12:02:20 {DonM} out
12:02:25 {Trader3} me to
12:02:28 {Trader3} flat
12:02:48 {DonM} Trader3 you trading machine
12:03:00 {Trader1} out +1
12:03:12 {Trader1} half size on that.
12:03:14 {DonM} almost identical
12:03:18 {DonM} who taught you that?
12:03:26 {DonM} lol
12:03:31 {DonM} that's too funny
12:03:38 {DonM} our execution charts 100% identical
12:03:41 {DonM} or 95%
12:03:45 {Trader1} 56.25 to 57.25 ?
12:03:50 {DonM} yea
12:03:52 {Trader3} Don - seriously - I'm beginning to think I've got my own life changing going on here....
12:03:53 {Trader1} hah.
12:04:24 {DonM} that's the idea Trader3
12:04:27 {Trader3} :-)
12:04:32 {DonM} I'm not doing this for my health!
12:04:34 {DonM} ;-)
12:04:47 {DonM} shocked I got the 5725 exit
12:04:53 {DonM} thought I'd have to move the last fill down
12:05:11 {DonM} ok, let's NOT lose sight of the 5 min
12:05:14 {DonM} 1 min also still down
12:05:44 {DonM} 30 bull cup
12:05:45 {DonM} BUT
12:05:52 {DonM} 1 & 5 would need to confirm possible extension
12:07:38 {DonM} td last drop again
12:07:40 {DonM} missed it
12:07:45 {Trader1} it seems like we have Daily Resistance MA's fighting the 15/30min Uptrends. impossible to say who would win. This is usually where I struggle as a Intraday Swing guy.
12:07:45 {DonM} shows better on 5 min
12:07:53 {DonM} yes Trader1
12:07:57 {Trader1} but I think if I take high probability setups for a pt or 2.. i'll be ok
12:08:00 {DonM} that's why I like the lesser timeframes
12:08:10 {DonM} can still sometimes find some meat
12:08:12 {DonM} with air, etc
12:08:27 {Trader1} and I think I can still get good free riding intraday swing positions on when the stars line up.
12:08:28 {DonM} 5 vs 30 now
12:08:36 {DonM} 5 may have to work off a transition phase
12:08:37 {Trader3} I saw it but convinced myself it wasn't there because of a lower drop vs the stabilization area.....oops
12:08:39 {DonM} keep in mind lunch hour
12:10:03 {Trader1} RE: Last TD, I was concerned the tick readings were too mismatched
12:10:11 {Trader1} -500 vs -800
12:10:29 {Trader1} ok.
12:11:10 {Trader1} don, are you scaling when you feel some hesitation in the push or do you have preset scales at 1 pt, once you get in? (Note: Responded via Audio)
12:12:54 {Trader3} Trader1 - I scaled in that time because the premise was intact, I went in initially small (ie. not a full position), and I could get a better price, plus I had Stoch, time of day, and tick divergence in my favor for a retrace.
12:13:41 {Trader1} TraderJ: thanks. what does time of day tell you right now?
12:14:06 {Trader1} yah my tummy is rumbling...
12:16:51 {Trader4} lunch sounds good much better day for me miss a few but not complaining
12:18:58 {Trader1} going to take lunch break
12:19:16 {Trader3} me 2
12:19:17 {DonM} yea, going to run errand
12:19:29 {DonM} probably be back around 1
12:19:46 {DonM} 30 min seems to be holding
12:22:27 {DonM} running to bank
12:22:39 {DonM} will have laptop
12:22:40 {DonM} lol
12:22:56 {DonM} a reminder
12:23:02 {DonM} to set yourself to "out"
12:23:04 {DonM} if leaving
12:23:17 {DonM} it will show up as red next to your name at my end
12:23:18 {DonM} thanks.
12:23:25 {DonM} back at 1
12:23:29 {DonM} and then we'll preview the PM
12:36:59 {Trader3} I'm back...
12:59:56 {Trader1} hello again
13:00:55 {DonM} back
13:01:11 {DonM} 5 min cup with 30 below
13:01:12 {DonM} extending
13:02:29 {DonM} got my Wendy's salad
13:02:33 {DonM} watching
13:02:55 {DonM} 30 min remains in play
13:02:58 {DonM} with 1 & 5 confirming
13:11:27 {DonM} range stochs been a great read today
13:12:37 {DonM} pace slow
13:19:19 {Trader4} break above 62 and then a pullback to 59/57 area
13:20:01 {Trader3} a break of the 65 resistance to the upside....
13:20:26 {Trader3} TUB the 65 for the 1st attempt?
13:21:02 {Trader4} hard to think about shorting period
13:21:24 {Trader2} Dow Cash wrestling close to 10,000 so I would expect new HOD
13:21:41 {Trader4} get my head hand to me real fast
13:23:27 {Trader4} then maybe we stay range bound in the the highs
13:23:33 {Trader3} I think you were talking about vix
13:23:37 {Trader1} the lunchtime deep pullback for bulls looked a lot better on the 15min for me:
13:24:40 {Trader2} I'll prolly take a short at 63 -64 (high of 10/29) unless pace really picks up
13:25:59 {Trader1} what would cause the most pain
13:26:20 {DonM} for me, it's that pace thing again
13:27:05 {Trader3} possible 1m triangle forming
13:27:28 {Trader3} squint...
13:28:03 {Trader1} tick still largely above 0
13:28:17 {DonM} back in a few
13:28:20 {Trader1} altho.. I suppose that could change at any moment
13:30:57 {Trader2} Not that I pay much attention to them, but 1062 is the 50% fib ret from the Oct highs
13:32:11 {Trader4} that is interesting
13:32:35 {Trader4} food for thought
13:33:47 {DonM} not interested in ticky tack trades
13:33:51 {DonM} soh

13:34:03 {Trader1} so possible 5 min bull cup. if the 5 min bull cup fails and 1058's dont hold as support, then you might have a range if 1056 holds.
13:34:04 {DonM} mkt is strong though
13:34:08 {DonM} tempted to go L on pbs

13:34:11 {DonM} but haven't
13:34:15 {Trader1} me too..
13:34:23 {Trader1} but it's such a sleeper
13:34:38 {DonM} agree Trader1
13:34:42 {DonM} both rooms saying same thing
13:35:03 {DonM} btw, I like what I'm seeing in Team #3
13:35:08 {DonM} you guys/gal are catching on
13:35:12 {DonM} solid comment
13:35:16 {DonM} decent sequences
13:35:19 {DonM} and in some cases
13:35:21 {DonM} strong sequences
13:35:25 {DonM} keep it up
13:35:30 {DonM} create some personal momentum
13:35:33 {DonM} and confidence
13:35:36 {DonM} that's why we're here
13:35:58 {DonM} air starting to bug me a bit again on the 30 & 60
13:36:02 {DonM} esp with 1 min short
13:38:13 {Trader2} Just FYI the profile looks incomplete between 59 and 56.5 (ish)
13:39:08 {Trader4} does that mean it could go back to fill that area
13:39:34 {Trader2} theory sais it hasn't spent enough time yes
13:39:41 {Trader1} I work with volume profile.
13:40:59 {DonM} POLR seems up still (See next line)
13:41:03 {DonM} path of least resistance
13:41:33 {DonM} keep eyes peeled on this range
13:44:06 {Trader1} 3lb fake?
13:44:23 {DonM} bit of a cup
13:44:38 {Trader1} ah ok
13:44:41 {Trader1} I was seeing that in the 5 min
13:44:42 {DonM} 15MA angles improving slightly
13:44:45 {DonM} on larger frames

13:45:20 {DonM} watching
13:45:24 {DonM} will likely let it break without me
13:45:26 {DonM} and adapt
13:45:50 {Trader3} no volume yet (or movement) for a real breakout....
13:46:31 {DonM} I lied
13:46:33 {DonM} took it
13:46:35 {Trader3} here we go...
13:46:48 {Trader1} volume is good
13:47:01 {DonM} scalping only though
13:47:43 {DonM} still prefer later pb if it goes
13:47:47 {DonM} so this is small stuff only
13:48:26 {DonM} one more push
13:48:28 {Trader3} It should have pulled out a bit faster, no?
13:48:36 {DonM} out most of scalp
13:48:39 {DonM} holding small
13:49:39 {DonM} sitting around 64 if it pops
13:50:10 {DonM} yea
13:50:15 {DonM} should have dumped it all probably
13:50:18 {DonM} but it's only 1 contract
13:50:19 {DonM} lol
13:50:20 {Trader2} short 63
13:50:24 {Trader2} not filled
13:50:45 {DonM} flat
13:51:48 {Trader2} grrrrrrrr
13:52:04 {Trader1} sell half at the bid and leave half at the offer?
13:52:15 {Trader3} trapped longs on that breakout
13:53:26 {Trader1} dropping like a rock..
13:53:53 {Trader1} but I dont think they are in big trouble till 59 gives out
13:54:05 {Trader1} agree... just not a very clean rbeakout
13:54:15 {Trader2} i saw on 1 min
13:54:18 {Trader3} me niether
14:06:42 {DonM} letting it drop
14:06:49 {DonM} can always short a pb if it's real
14:06:55 {DonM} or scalp a barf
14:07:23 {DonM} daily may be strutting its influence up here
14:08:34 {DonM} you can see a bit of what I meant here
14:08:36 {Trader3} Maybe we should just be trading this as a range day....
14:08:41 {DonM} Where is the true break
14:08:41 {Trader1} great call on that short Trader2.
14:08:51 {DonM} and how much profit potential before it hits resistance
14:09:18 {DonM} HTBO for me now (See Next Line)
14:09:22 {DonM} has to be obvious
14:10:00 {DonM} still feels too much like phone booth trading for now
14:10:05 {DonM} waiting for it to open up
14:10:19 {Trader3} HTBO??
14:11:05 {DonM} read above
14:11:23 {DonM} 4 lines up
14:11:36 {Trader1} L 58 75
14:11:40 {Trader1} if it loses 58 i'm out of here quick
14:14:29 {Trader3} bulls flushed out, bears will be trapped if we now go up - giving fuel to the fire
14:14:47 {DonM} may just get range here into close
14:14:51 {DonM} big report in the AM
14:14:56 {DonM} sitting on sidelines

14:15:03 {Trader3} ok
14:17:27 {Trader3} In that case you are good to go!
14:17:58 {Trader1} 1/2 +1
14:18:16 {Trader3} Good Job! Trader1!
14:18:35 {Trader1} thank you
14:19:22 {Trader1} scr the rest
14:19:46 {Trader1} this momentum wigs me out..
14:20:00 {Trader3} It's almost like MATD
14:21:02 {Trader4} I have no more juice in my tank for this mkt (tired eyes)
14:21:30 {Trader3} Then don't trade until you feel better - 1st do no harm!
14:21:57 {DonM} and how do you import it? TS keeps telling me it already exists
14:22:00 {DonM} sorry for the admin
14:22:10 {Trader4} agree tomorrow another day
14:22:14 {DonM} mkt rangebound ... trade the range if you like it
14:22:46 {DonM} 5 min ADX dropping
14:25:18 {DonM} still want more elbow room
14:25:25 {DonM} letting it drift without me
14:27:05 {Trader3} I had a bid out on that last push down, didn't get filled
14:27:23 {Trader1} 58.50 went quickly
14:27:26 {Trader1} 1 tick and bounced
14:27:41 {Trader3} I was .25 bid....*sigh*
14:28:06 {Trader1} I have been placing 1/2 sizes around the area I like.
14:28:13 {Trader1} sometimes get both, sometimes not. but try to get something
14:28:31 {Trader1} next step is... need to size up more on a good sequence
14:28:43 {Trader1} but this awful pace gives me no such confidence to do that..
14:28:44 {Trader3} That's good info Trader1 - Thanks !
14:29:35 {DonM} DMI indicator very very low (DM = Don Miller Momentum Index)
14:29:37 {DonM} .0001

14:29:43 {Trader3} I don't know - we're moviing about 2pts/minute now .....seems like pace to me!
14:29:48 {Trader1} Don's Momentum Index?
14:29:53 {DonM} sort of
14:29:56 {DonM} DM Interest
14:32:02 {Trader1} I see... air on 30+ timeframes
14:32:06 {Trader1} flatlining 1 and 5
14:32:13 {Trader1} 15 is ... mostly flat, maybe up.
14:33:45 {DonM} still having hard time defining the range
14:33:51 {DonM} for coil b/o's
14:34:05 {DonM} 58 swing low I suppose
14:34:36 {DonM} but prices below that
14:38:35 {DonM} some triangles perhaps
14:43:59 {DonM} funny thing is
14:44:04 {DonM} I really am squinting
14:44:08 {DonM} eyes tired
14:44:11 {DonM} at this tight range
14:46:29 {DonM} today good example of PJO concept (PJO = Prime Jellie Opportunity)
14:46:35 {DonM} it was really one sequence
14:46:42 {DonM} that made the day
14:46:58 {DonM} everything else squinty
14:47:07 {DonM} although the 30 min pb midday was ok
14:48:13 {DonM} SOOT (SOOT = Staying Out of Trouble)
14:48:23 {DonM} 5 min ADX still dropping
14:48:25 {DonM} 11.74
14:50:45 {DonM} 30 min still the story
14:50:48 {DonM} in terms of bias
14:51:55 {DonM} biased L on pb
14:55:17 {DonM} small volume on that pop
14:55:50 {DonM} can't get the feel I had earlier
14:55:52 {DonM} with this poor pace
14:55:59 {DonM} still biased L toward last breakout
14:56:03 {DonM} 60.50 support
14:56:24 {Trader3} td
14:56:47 {DonM} hod resistance of course
14:56:57 {DonM} VIX ok
14:57:41 {Trader5} Im back.. Hopefully, other business done for a while
14:59:22 {Trader3} Are wedges bullish or bearish in and of themselves?
14:59:30 {DonM} rising channel
14:59:38 {DonM} breaks can mean something of course
14:59:47 {DonM} TUB the channel ... that sort of thing
15:00:08 {Trader3} k
15:01:17 {Trader1} do you guys consider the action on the 5 min to resemble a cup & handle? and now attempt for extension?
15:01:18 {DonM} zzzzzzzz
15:01:28 {DonM} bit of a cup Trader1, yes
15:02:02 {Trader3} agree
15:02:07 {Trader1} I am actually having a hard time staying alert
15:02:13 {DonM} don't have the same conviction I had at 10:30
15:02:17 {DonM} might just be tired
15:02:30 {DonM} volume still seems suspect
15:02:35 {DonM} but patterns are patterns
15:02:42 {DonM} and bias there

15:02:50 {DonM} just can't get comfortable wholesale entry
15:02:58 {Trader2} Dow 10,000
15:03:55 {DonM} td
15:04:01 {DonM} might still go
15:04:03 {DonM} not in
15:04:18 {DonM} playing very close to vest this PM
15:05:11 {Trader3} dang it
15:05:13 {DonM} didn't have the stones to short it
15:06:06 {Trader3} me could have moved like a bat out of you now where the other way.
15:06:19 {Trader1} 3lb
15:06:54 {Trader3} decent volume on that sell off
15:07:19 {DonM} saw the td
15:07:20 {DonM} in time too
15:07:23 {DonM} but didn't take it
15:07:27 {DonM} mind a bit frazzled
15:07:59 {Trader3} I was offering but cancelled it - I'm ok with missing the trade - the edge was there but risk was high
15:17:51 {Trader1} the handle of the cup and handle formed its own handle..
15:17:55 {Trader1} I have no clue what to look at here
15:18:04 {DonM} good eye Trader1
15:18:06 {DonM} same here
15:18:07 {DonM} ;-)
15:18:13 {DonM} sometimes, there's not much to see
15:19:43 {DonM} taking it
15:20:43 {DonM} scr
15:20:45 {DonM} geesh
15:21:10 {Trader3} Dead cat
15:21:36 {Trader1} the truth is I didnt take it cause I was scared. The drop from 63 went quickly with some volume.
15:21:46 {Trader1} it was enough to get me to do nothing
15:21:56 {Trader5} took what.. the td?
15:22:01 {Trader1} Long pullback to 61
15:22:10 {Trader5} ok
15:22:44 {DonM} td again
15:22:56 {DonM} thought the volume might push it there
15:23:04 {DonM} but bailed when it didn't go
15:23:16 {Trader1} great intuition on that bail...
15:23:33 {DonM} pbs remain the entries
15:23:36 {DonM} to now anyway
15:23:58 {DonM} ticks well below many prior highs

15:25:06 {DonM} take at look at that 60
15:25:10 {DonM} prior swing high
15:25:32 {DonM} likely the last try for me
15:25:40 {DonM} traded barely at all in the PM
15:26:56 {Trader3} I reminder to reign in fade attempts due to time of day....
15:27:35 {DonM} yea, but still early
15:27:43 {DonM} last 15-30 mins primarily
15:27:50 {DonM} still 45 mins to close
15:28:03 {Trader3} Are you going vs. 4:15?
15:28:20 {DonM} yea ... 3:45 - 4:15ish
15:28:26 {Trader3} ok
15:28:31 {DonM} but it's a bit vague
15:28:35 {DonM} just meant to be protective
15:28:57 {DonM} possible 1 min h&s
15:29:04 {DonM} at 63ish
15:30:25 {DonM} offering 6275
15:30:41 {DonM} ok fine
15:30:46 {DonM} be that way
15:32:40 {DonM} right idea
15:32:51 {DonM} just couldn't get the pop to short beyond that feeble one
15:38:19 {DonM} long day
15:38:33 {DonM} esp with the less than spectacular PM paced
15:38:35 {DonM} pace
15:40:47 {Trader2} Lovely trend on the $VOLD
15:40:47 {DonM} for those needing some caffeine
15:40:52 {Trader1} L 62
15:40:53 {DonM} Starbucks reports after close
15:41:25 {Trader1} 5min EMA
15:41:35 {Trader1} lol.
15:41:36 {Trader3} neutral
15:42:02 {Trader1} ok
15:42:29 {Trader4} loses 61.25 was holding as support
15:42:45 {Trader4} real fight there
15:43:42 {Trader1} I will barf at 60.75
15:45:42 {Trader1} barfed it out
15:47:32 {Trader1} 5ema sup. 1 min coil. thinking push to 63 again. I was on wrong side of coil looks like.
15:51:41 {Trader1} hrmm... they got me.
15:51:41 {Trader3} SOOT
15:51:44 {Trader1} lol
15:52:20 {Trader3} The only thing I see are fade plays....and now we really are getting to close for those
15:52:30 {Trader3} ...too close to close
15:52:42 {Trader1} this is what I was looking for but I had awful timing on this.
15:52:46 {Trader4} Trader1 just early
15:52:47 {Trader1} oh well.
15:53:05 {DonM} tough time to trade gang
15:54:34 {Trader1} i'm def not chasing this tho. shutting down DOM
15:54:37 {DonM} markets less predictable
15:54:39 {Trader3} Todays range notwithstanding - this doesn't count as a pre-MATD does it?
15:54:42 {DonM} traders tired
15:54:47 {DonM} positions being squared
15:54:51 {DonM} just not high % time

15:55:34 {Trader4} I threw my towel awhile ago
15:58:52 {Trader2} Some size in the DOM
15:58:56 {Trader3} You did the right thing - but possibly should have re-entered if you really had the conviction.....
15:59:19 {Trader1} should waited for the last few longs to barf.. my entry signal was bad.
15:59:57 {Trader3} No such thing a perfect entry signal were telling ME that earlier today!

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