Monday, July 14, 2008

Monday Intraday Journal

11:06am Going to try something new in terms of intraday blogging. Remember Don, this is your personal trading journal that you're writing to yourself. When I feel the market settling into consolidation/chop/etc., I'm going to head to the sidelines and post my observations. Call it reporting to Dr. Steenbarger's Internal Observer.

Based on the 5-minute chart, we're settling into a tight chop. Decent start to the week trading long for scalps pre-market before having a definite short bias once the U.S. bell rang with stops above Friday's high. Took 2-3 points and re-entered on some pops. Keeping sizes very modest to start the week and letting volatility drive the P&L.

11:18am Just scratched a short sequence on another post-break pullback; confirms the meat is off the bones for now. Decent job protecting A.M. gains ... only gave back about $500 on a $11K morning. ES has breakdown potential heading into the P.M. but watching for now. Next trade might be long on capitulation. In capital preservation mode.

11:48 ES hanging on to 1235 by a thread. Look out below if that dam gives way. VIX climbing and primed for another push up.

11:58 Still on sidelines watching. Longs are clearly stuck from the morning buys and puking ... going long at 1226.

Wow, exited for 1.5 on pop but underestimated the extent of the post-puke bounce. Need better hand/eye coordination in this volatility. Next move short.

12:04 Shorting 31.75 for scalp and will take it out on drop. Out 29.25. Still good reads Don. 25.50 now the new puke point.

This intraday blogging to self will either help or hinder. So far, seems to be helping. Going to evaluate end-of-day. Back on sidelines.

Tough day for "investors". And the VIX STILL hasn't passed the magic 30 mark. Investors waaaaaay too complacent.

12:17 Have short entries queued up in the 32s, not sure we'll get there though. 5 min trend down.

12:20 Got 3225 & 3250; Want 1 point for half and hold rest.

12:22 OK, getting tired and feeling personal greed setting in a bit. Took 1 point on most and scratched rest. 1 Minute 3 Line-Break just turned long which is a warning. Might still get another push south on 5 min but back on sidelines.

12:55 Definitely left some money on the table on that last one. Oh well. I'll be shocked if the VIX doesn't spike this afternoon.

1:12 VIX 29.20. Tick, tick, tick. Watching only; tough to find good entry points.

1:25 zzzzzzzzzzzz. No trades for last hour.

1:48 Nice scalp sequences, long on 1 min turn then short off 35 resistance. Flat for now. Clear resistance at 35 until broken. Keeping contract sizes extremely moderate (below 50) for the most part. Definitely want to do an end-of-day recap of the blog's impact on my trading today. So far, it is keeping me focused and respecting all key indicators. I do know I'm leaving $$ on the table, but that's the largest negative of the day so far.

2:24 Doubt I'll take another trade. Tired, had decent day, and it had better be a ridiculously good entry. VIX coming back down. I know this much -> My historical record of last hour trading is clearly net negative.

OK, did this intraday experiment work? Perhaps. Stayed out of trouble (DEE-FENSE), and on right side of market for most part. Day profits at $17K and EESM recovery now at 74% in under a week. Not sure I'll do this every day though ... maybe from time to time if I need to refocus.

Time will tell.


Anonymous said...

Hi Don,

Good to hear that you're still actively trading.

I followed your daily comments on TM several years ago and noted that you're now using other technical indicators as opposed to relying mainly on MA's, stochastics, and Bollinger bands.

What prompted you to make the switch?


Don Miller said...

Hi MM.

I really haven't changed much since then. I supplement the MAs (which are still the cornerstone of my trading) with 3 Line Break a bit to help provide some confirmation, and VIX is helpful as a confirming indicator as well. If I've tweaked anything, it's that I don't use BBs on the charts as much as I can pretty much visualize consolidation ranges and extreme trend points without them, but that's just some tweaking. The trade objectives and intent of the tools haven't really changed.