Tuesday, July 15, 2008

When Profit Does Not Reflect Performance

You'd think with EESM recovery now at 95% today (we'll stop tracking it now as I've effectively recovered my worst draw of the year in 7 days) and $15K in pocket, I'd give myself a higher grade than a D today. OK, we'll go D+.

Why? Simple. I undersized the 30+ VIX long entries shortly after 10am ET when the stuck longs from the last day, week, year (you get the point) were losing their breakfast, lunch, dinner, and retirement funds shortly after 10am ET. Pure panic and I saw it. Oh, I got a few morsels, but as I saw ES holding 1200 with the TICK literally off my chart (which scales 1000 to -1000), I opted for a double instead of a grand slam.

Now I shouldn't be too hard on myself as I had a non-market commitment shortly after 10am, yet this was one of those "cancel all appointments" mornings. Oh, to have a mulligan on that one. Ironically, the majority of my profits came shorting the runaway spike at 11:15am right into the 15 minute downtrend support brick wall.

The good news is I feel I'm continuing to read the market well, and I tend to find that next sweet spot after missing an earlier one.

I'd better as I need an A tomorrow to bring up the report card average.

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