Thursday Notes - In the Zone

11:00am OK, this is getting scary. Very much in rhythm today on ES and the volume is a welcome return. I have no clue what my P&L is and won't look until the next sequence is complete, which will either be a short of an approach toward 1260, or a buy of the next capitulation. Got a couple of two-pointers with decent size thus far, especially on the 10:42am third-push barf where I picked up ES on sale for 52.75, took it out on the approach toward 54.75, and then repeated it again at 10:50am picking it up at 52.25 - 52.75 on lesser size.

We could stay rangebound down here for a bit, but clear initial resistance at 1260 on any attempt back up today or tomorrow and I want that trade.

11:22pm Long ... best price 48.25 ... 45 contracts. Will let it float a bit. Target exits north of 50.

11:28am Flat all but 5 ... took 49.75 & 50.00 on most. Sitting at 50.75 on final.

11:31am What the hell, added at 49.00 ... should get north of 50 easy. If we break 50, should approach 52ish. Sitting at 50.75 and 51s for exits.

11:42am 50.75 exits taken out; back to small position and final exit sitting at 51.50. Definitely in the zone and feeling it today.

Man, an approach toward 1260 would be an absolute gift short.

11:49am Ding, ding, ding ... 51.50 taken out. Next entry a short on any surge north and high TICK reading.

11:54am Shorted 52.50 small size ... 5 min trend in play and should get one more push for 1-2 pts.

11:57am Ding, ding, ding ... covered final 50.75.

EXCEPTIONAL MARKET PACE TODAY ... BEST I'VE SEEN IN MONTHS!!

Noontime P&L check ... $23K on only 681 x 2 contracts. That's a ridiculous Dustin Pedroia type efficiency ratio. Get over it Don ... plenty of day left with ample opportunity.

12:05pm Any strong push north from here should be shortable ... problem is most everyone knows that and it could take a day or some really stupid shorts who forgot to cover in the gift plunge. ES rangebound now, but not leaving my workstation until 4:15:01!


12:22pm Got 1260ish marked on every relevant chart I can find. Don't want to lose sight of it. Trusting until broken (Click charts to enlarge.) ES in no-man's land though for now.

12:35pm Adapting my post-draw comeback mentality to the rest of the day, I need to view the PM trade as if my morning was a large draw (which it has been for many stuck longs).

Step up your focus Don and don't do any more damage by getting sloppy or forcing trades! Push yourself.

12:58pm VIX poised for another leg up and ES another leg down. Watching only for now. No buyers in sight. Looks like Sept will be a bear for long-term investors ... huge resistance to overcome.

1:42pm Little bit of a tricky bottoming attempt ... been dipping some toes in, scratching, re-entering, etc. Holding long core position from 42.00 looking for a PM squeeze attempt.

1:56pm Added long 43.75. 1 min 3LB is now long and this thing is stretched. Sensed exhaustion on last push down. Stop is 41.50 or a 3LB turn south. Room to squeeze hard if we can clear 45.

2:04pm Scratched for now 42.75.

2:06pm No "oomph" (technical term) at all to that last lift attempt. Couldn't clear 45 to trigger panic short covering.

2:10pm Helluva scratch Don. Markets getting ugly. Dow -310.

2:15pm Back in the "buy the panic extreme" scalp mode ... similar to morning barf. Tried for the reversal but was no go. Scalping extremes now.

2:40pm Tricky down here. On sidelines.

3:05pm Not in sync down here. Tough to read. In gain preservation mode for now.

3:50pm No trades.

OK, only a few trades in the afternoon, and nothing with size. Closing the book on a decent and highly efficient $25K day. Clearly, a very painful day for investors. The key at this end is to make today feel painful for me as well.

Today is history ... tomorrow matters.