Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Tuesday Notes - Now It Gets Harder

4:15pm Now it gets harder. One lap to go and I can see the finish line. Today officially closes the books on the 3rd Quarter and now all focus must turn to a strong finishing kick over the final quarter of this incredible 2008 journey. What's past is past and now has to be forgotten, including and especially a September for the ages.

Yet we'll first take one last look at today, which I played pretty tight to the vest ... not trading much at all in the afternoon and letting the afternoon "too early" shorts battle it out with the "too late" longs and the quarter-end window dressing fund managers. Essentially, I didn't want to give away any chips at this end for lack of clarity or tiring focus. I actually felt better pace in the Globex session (vs. the U.S. day session), where most of the day's $14K chip gain occurred on buying pullbacks.

So I'd grade today an A for discipline & market reads, and B- for performance. We'll grade the quarter a B++ (OK, I'm a tough grader, but there were two bonehead moves and some income suboptimization at times, so despite the equity spike, the grade will serve as a reminder).

And so the final leg begins. The bar has been raised and we start digging out of another hole tomorrow. 9 holes dug and 3 remain. 75% complete. But 75% is not 100%.

92 days left. The bogey is now $1.25 Million.

If I succeed, drinks will be on me on New Years' Eve and you're all invited. I'm thinking Foxwoods.


Yet now it's time to reset the mind. I've just experienced the largest draw of my life and I'm sick to my stomach. It's comeback time.

Ouch. Hand me the shovel.


Anonymous said...

if that thumbnail is representative of each months pnl you should dramatically increase size- your win rate is top notch.

Anonymous said...

Hi Don:

Nice hearing about your day. I too had a good day. Up about $4K, with only trading about 12 to 20 lot sizes at any given time.

Don, is there a method that you use to determine if the day is more likely to be a trending day versus a range day?

I appreciate your thoughts.


Don Miller said...

Yes, the chart reflects the daily P&L with each grouping reflecting one month.

Re: Size adjustments, that will be a January 2009 decision after I dig out of three more holes. At this point, I don't even dare change my socks.

Ronin - No method really other than chop usually follows trend and vice versa ... or day two typically isn't like day one.


Anonymous said...

ah- thought that was monthly plots not daily. when you say 3 more holes- you refering to $ amount or 3 bad days of losses to overcome?

Don Miller said...

Re: the "holes", please view the early July "Cornerstone" post. The holes essentially reflect starting fictitious monster draws that get me in a focused performance-driven state of mind each month, day, trade, etc.