Monday, August 11, 2008

Monday Notes - Changing Rhythms

1:20pm Admittedly, it took me a bit to get the blood pumping today on the heels of a family event from which I returned late last night. Got some of the initial pop off Friday's supports, but have been watching the rest of this climb. Finally felt confident about putting some size on this midday pullback to 5-min support. Here's a nice pic ... I'm currently long and will take it out into any pop with a stop on the 1-min 3 Line Break (bottom chart) reversal. Faded into long best price 1307.50 and added on the 1-min turn. Very high probability, but as Forrest Gump would say ... "market is as market does." VIX 15-min looking to continue its downtrend ... which also suggests price bounce.

1:25pm Taking it out into the pop. Looking for 1310+ on final exit.

1:32pm Flat. Nice set-up and pace. Took the high-probability reaction. It can run to the moon now for all I care. Here's the 15-min VIX after the bounce (didn't have time to capture during the trade but saw it). Note how it pulled back to downtrend support and then continued its push.

1:37pm Yea, yea, yea, I know ES ticked 1313+ and 1310 now looking like a stupid exit. Then again, other days it would be the peak and I'd look like a genius. Neither of course would be right ... I want the high probability move and don't like to gamble! Had OK size on, but could have added a bit more on the turn to take out into any extreme pop. Steady as she goes Don ... step by step, day by day. Eyes on December 31 only.

1:50pm Heading into income preservation mode. $7K on the day and a good start to the week (btw, all figures quoted are NET of commission expense). Gotta be a helluva pullback entry now toward 15-min support as 5-min high probability move has already played out.

1:59pm Would love a cliff drop toward 1305 ... might have some late-to-the-party stuck longs bailing. But has to be a premium hand only. Might do some light wholesale scalping on any drop as volatility picking up a tad.

3:10pm OK, earlier exits looking better ... too funny. Scrambled a bit on the drop which did come in all the way to the top of the A.M. breakout range. ES only overshot my 1:59pm wishlist by 5 points! 3 Line Break continuing to be a great stay-out-of-trouble guide as it never went long on that full retrace. Picked up a few extra $ on the drop, but picking optimal wholesale entries a bit tough. Hate it when the whole world sees and wants the same thing!!

3:21pm Definitely got some stuck longs on that earlier blow-off top. Nice market rhythm though today with lots of mini-trends in play. Did OK and nudged day's chip increase up to $8,400, but it won't be hard to find some things I didn't like about my trading today. Size management may be one, and perhaps a bit too cautious in the P.M. Also been a while since I've had a five-figure day ... need to put my finger on that. Maybe size management again.

Will need to do better.


dan said...


I've been reading your blog ever since the good Doctor posted to you. What moving averages are you using for support on your 5 minute ES charts? The 3 line break chart definitely was on fire today, too bad it's not like this every day!

Keep up the excellent work!


Don Miller said...

Hey Dan & Welcome.

Since I could never really decide on the "right" MA (there of course is none), I often use 15 SMA (red) and 20 EMA (blue) on all of my timeframes which gets me to a general zone.

The 15 min MAs obviously didn't do much on that PM drop as the 1 min sliced right through them, but I still find they provide a good visual of a trending trading channel without continuously having to redraw lines manually.

And yes, 3LB was indeed picture perfect today. Of course that means it'll probably be useless tomorrow :-).

Thanks for the kind words, and seeya around the blog.


TeamLBR said...

Minor technical issue but I was wondering if you could find a way to post your charts in such a way that they could be clicked on, to expand them. Many blogs do this (see Brett's for an example), and it's the only way to actually see the data on the charts you are posting. The charts are great! Just can't see them :)



Don Miller said...

Hi Cleon.

I'll look into that. As this is essentially my personal trading diary and most of my focus is on trading, I of course haven't focused too much on presentation. Right now, I just do screen captures via SnagIt and post the pic.

I'll take a look at it during off hours some day.



TeamLBR said...


My two cents just to help with the graphic uploads. I think Blogger automatically handles expanding images to their full size so I think it's just a matter of increasing the resolution of the save from Snagit. Might be a default setting somewhere.

Anyway, I understand that this is just a side project so no need to post this. Just sharing some info that might help. Thanks!