Wednesday, August 6, 2008

Wednesday Notes - Post FOMC

1:06pm Well, we definitely got the chop as expected, yet the pace has frankly been a bit sloppy ... even for chop if that's possible ... and well-contained within a tight range with pathetic volume with a capital "P". Been keeping size modest (haven't yet seen a clear "all-in" entry point) as a result and have been simply been doing some light liquidity-providing scalping to keep my mind in the market.

Have traded both the DAX and ES sessions with the day-after-trend day mentality with a bias toward the long side on dips and 1-min turns given the downtrending VIX, and the results have been acceptable but certainly not stellar. In the spirit of Yogi Berra, it seems summer trading may not go away fall arrives. Best push back up thus far was around the lunch hour.

Not relying as much on 3 Line Break in the oscillating market as that tends to be a lagging indicator on non-trend days. Might be a better indicator in the PM.

2:24pm Well, for some reason, I just lost my blog draft that I was typing over the last hour (there was some good stuff there too!), so here's a quick and dirty recap. Was getting extremely anxious in the prolonged chop -- from not trading -- and mentioned the tiny # of ES contracts I've traded over the last three days (1,720 Monday, 150 Tues, 846 through noon today, with Tuesday's likely a career low!). It was starting to drive me bonkers and I needed to make sure I wouldn't lose focus.

Was finally biased long shortly after 2pm on the imploding VIX and holding price trends and took longs at 8375 and 8475 at 2:11pm and 2:12pm. Stop was if 1 min 3 Line Break turned back south. Scaled out on the approach to 8800 and am mostly out now. Best exit so far 8725 & took most out at 8650. Holding small portion "just in case".

Most short-term conviction I've had in a while. Had a good read and execution as I was looking for this coiled spring to pop and felt least path of resistance was up, although I kept contract size still fairly modest. Still, best sequence in a while and managing well today, all things considered. It won't be a home run day, but finally got some decent wood on the ball with a couple of solid singles.

2:34pm Taking more out on this price and TICK pop. Best fill 8775.

2:43pm Flat at 8875 and that may be it for me.

That admittedly wasn't exactly my bread and butter sequence, but I suppose you have to eat off the menu presented.

Chip count up modestly on the day $7,700 -- which while lower than most days after trends, I'm OK with today's management. I'd love to see a close at new highs to set an even better stage for tomorrow and stretch this puppy some more, but an hour to go still.

Will recap additional thoughts this evening.

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