Friday, August 29, 2008

Friday Notes - Another Hole Filled

11:20am A nice end to the month with both the DAX and ES cooperating nicely in this morning after prior-day trend mode.

Hmmmm ... what do the following two opening charts have in common????


It's been an interesting dance thus far today, as I try to balance opportunity with monthly gain protection. Been keeping sizes on the light side to compromise between the two, which helped protect early profits when I gave some back fading the drop after the first hour (often a high probability move on the day after a strong trend).


So another month comes to an end, and for the eighth time this year, another hole has been filled. Here's the daily equity chart for the month (again, without number labels for a reason):

Conclusions? Well, it was certainly much more consistent than July with lesser volatility. The 17- 4 daily gain /draw ratio is OK, but I'm a bit concerned that I had only two days of $15K+. The fact that the largest draw was $5K -- essentially mouse you-know-whats -- seems OK ... although I seriously wonder if I'm being too conservative in terms of risk/reward and position sizing. I need to think about that.

What I find extremely interesting is that both July and August arrived at about the same end-point, albeit via two completely different paths. I also now have almost two full months of post-blog data that gives me some indication that documenting my thoughts this way hasn't explicitly hindered my trading, with each month producing six-figure results. Again though, it's tough to measure whether there was greater potential without exposing one's self to undue risk.

You can also see the various points of plateau, the most recent of which was driving me crazy and literally keeping me up nights a few days ago.

Yet you know the drill by now. September cleans the slate once again and this all means squat. For the past -- both immediate and distant -- will always remain irrelevant.

All I know is I see four more holes ahead of me. Hand me the shovel.

Please note this week's Weekend Trader was posted last night as I'll be out during parts of the weekend. Keep the comments coming though as we work to strengthen our collective "team".

No comments: