Friday, May 7, 2010

Friday Notes - On the Rebound

Some quick thoughts as the day and week wrap up.

- Today's checklist coming into this morning's trade: Keep it tight, keep the feet moving, stay out of trouble, and finish profitable.  Check, check, check, & check.

- 'Twas very nice to see the market give me a chance to re-buy yesterday's sales just south of 1100.  I did want those back -- if only for a few minutes!

- Also nice to see other liquidity providers not taking a 10-minute break this time around and the market depth holding.  They must have been well-rested after yesterday's 2:45pm nap.  Of course they also helped facilitate the early MATD and triangle plays in the context of the hourly downtrend.

- Why does NASCAR get such great ratings?  It's the crashes.  Same thing here I guess as yesterday's video is now over a record 1,000 trader views, and the blog traffic spiked to a 12-month high yesterday and an all-time high today.  Where've you been?  :-).  btw, I'm working on close-up photos of the ambulance.

- Greatest Hits: The October 2008 Monday meltdown still ranks as my largest hit at 5.5% (recovered by the end of the week).  Comparatively, yesterday's registered "only" 1.9% (thank goodness for a partial 12% size!), although it did briefly tag 4.8% when ES traded 1060. 

So the way I look at it, yesterday's draw was already 60% recovered by the end of the day, and I'm now simply working on the other 40%.  Hey, anything to keep the confidence.  Some early career draws of course clocked in higher with far smaller accounts, as is typical when starting out.

- And the VIX closes at 40+.  In '08, it took a day to get the eyes adjusted.  Let's hope yesterday was a similar eye exam.

Lots more work to do of course, but it's a start.

More thoughts over the weekend.


Unknown said...

grest posts Don, thanks for sharing your thoughts, a daily read for me.

DJ, London, UK

Peter said...

Thanks for your consistent honesty Don.

Over the years that I have been following you, your wisdom has really helped me stay level headed in this business, even when the markets get a little crazy.

You are a great source of inspiration and I really appreciate your taking the time to share with others.

Thank you. Thank you.

Kevin B. said...

First-time post in deference to your desire to see a few more.

I'm on part 5 of your seminars, and I wish I was through all 8 before jumping in the pool yesterday. Big, big mistake for me to have traded on Friday. I was actually one of the fortunate ones to make it out of Thursday's horror show with a decent profit, BUT I was extremely lucky. I made two big trading errors in the 2:30-2:45 frenzy that actually ended up bailing me out of a very bad day. So, I suppose the psychology of my Friday trading was based on a belief that I could handle a similar event. That was foolish. The lesson I learned yesterday (through a significant tuition payment) was that if I insist on trading the ES prior to completing the seminar, reading the books, and the blog (in full), I must do so with a single contract. Period. In fact, I may enforce my single contract rule over the next six months, or until such time (possibly much longer, admittedly) that I can prove that my trading is consistently profitable. Obviously, that is a much better idea, come to think of it...

In other news, I LOVE your sports analogies but you are off base on the NASCAR one.

Yes, perhaps people want to see NASCAR crashes for the excitement and sensationalism, but anyone watching your video Thursday evening did so because THEY have crashed (either Thursday or at some point in their trading) and want to see how a pro who crashed handled it.

I suspect that as instructional as all of your videos and blog posts are, it will be the post-crash forensics of a vid like Thursdays that are the most instructional of all. And when you provide a level of detail that includes what gear you were in, what the conditions of your tires were, how much fuel you had on board, etc., it goes a long way to showing others how a split second of being on the track in the wrong place at the wrong time can happen to the best of them.

I was so glad to see that you had posted on that day. Thank you, Don.


fchris said...

re-live Thursdays move --- 1115 to 1060 in roughly 4 minutes:

Don Miller said...

Good comments Kevin, and I alluded to it in Saturday's post. Hang in there.