Monday, October 6, 2008

Monday Notes - Monday Mess

4:15pm Yes, I took it hard on the chin -- and cheek and neck -- today. I was off my game in the morning, wasn't focused enough, got stubborn, and decided to "invest" some of my hard earned gains by swinging for the fences in the morning, not believing the market would give (throw) up its early low given the opening multi-year 50 VIX reading and strong ten point thrust off the 9:31am lows.

I played it perfectly up to 9:45am, buying the initial thrust down and selling on the spike north. But then, the errors began, perhaps the most crucial being I ignored the 3LB indicator after the initial pop and mis-managed size. Certainly ES wouldn't lose another 40 points below its early low! As the market tanked and the VIX climbed toward 60 .. that's sixty ... I felt like Tom Brady with a defensive lineman around his knee. And I heard the crunch.

Maybe it was looking at my year-to-date results over the weekend when I've said all year I'd careful with that until 12/31. Maybe some invincible feeling bubbled to the surface. Maybe it was lack of sleep after the late night Sox game last night. Maybe God decided I needed to be humbled big time to set up the next run, or it's His sense of humor that I should take the rest of the year off. Maybe ... maybe ... maybe ...

Fact is the real reason doesn't matter so I won't analyze it to death. All I know is it happened and I know better. I'm not a home run hitter ... I'm a singles and doubles liquidity provider and all that swings like that do are tear muscles.

Right now, it's critical that I focus on the good as I head into a rough evening.

- I'm wounded but not dead. Time is a great healer.
- All earnings/losses do are gain/lose time ... so I'm a few weeks younger now.
- The afternoon session was positive.
- I just invested in continuing education for the second time this year.
- On 12/31, this will be a distant memory and the wound will have scarred over.
- %-wise, it's not my largest draw.
- It wasn't a triple digit loss.
- I'll still earn my goal of $1M this year.
- And yes, believe it or not, the financial hit could have been (and was at one point) much worse.

So there it is ... in all its ugliness.

The human element rears its ugly head again.

I'm going to need Wednesday's lounge session ... including a few drinks.

2 comments:

RONIN said...

Hang in there Don. Reread select chapters from the Tao of Poker and Zen of Poker for clarity.

Tommorrow is another day, another clean slate. Review what you could have done better, see what you did well today and the forget about it. Clear the mind. You will be fine.

what time wednesday?

Best,

RONIN

cleon said...

Not your typical trading day. Can't fault yourself too much on this kind of day.

Personally, I wouldn't mind getting back to those 'low-volatility 300 pt dow' days...