Monday, February 9, 2009

Monday Notes - Oscillation Day

5:30pm Not much to say about today except that we had the fairly predictable "morning after prior-day trend" action where short-term oscillations were the name of the game as longer term trends (30 & 60-min) held their own throughout the day.

At this end, I had to tend to non-market commitments a couple of times today which pretty much resulted in a wash in terms of a less than optimal morning return (due to focus and size limitations) offsetting a forced stay-out-of-trouble PM where I could have easily forced a few trades. Still, the result was a modest gain to start the week thanks to the late morning continuation of Friday's supporting trends, and considering my historical pattern of poor Monday personal performances, I'll accept it and move on.

All eyes now focus on the 850-875 zone to see if Friday's foundation was built of rock or sand.

No Longer Under the Radar - It's interesting in that yesterday's post -- which I almost didn't make as I was on the road -- was visited by more traders (1,086) than any since we started this trek just seven short months ago, and the trend of onlookers continues to steadily climb. Welcome to the "new press", I guess. Maybe a lot of folks simply Googled "Cramer and Education" ... if so, talk about an oxymoron. In any event, it seems we sparked a few emotions in the market yesterday, and it will be interesting to see the response if Barron's does a similar piece on Suze Orman.

On that thought, I'm usually purposely careful not to reference specific names on my rants out of respect for the industry and since this blog is largely a one-way dialogue -- although a reminder that I do posts contrary comments per the FAQ -- yet Barron's simply made it too easy yesterday by both teeing it up for me and putting the club in my hand.

btw, if you're new to the blog and looking for the sales trap door, keep looking and pleeeeze read the FAQ to the left.

As I've said in the past, I'll never mince words which I'm sure will get me into trouble with more than a few at times. And at the current rate of site growth, all I can think is that when I finally have that 2009 bonehead day -- which will occur -- I'll get to line up in front of a helluva line and scream, "Thank you sir, may I have another."

Boston Trader Group - A reminder for those in the New England area to check out Saturday's post. The response has thus far been positive and I'll keep you posted.


Get In Get Out said...


Just started experimenting with the ADX indicator that you mentioned you use to track the strength of the ES markets trend. I wanted to know if have the adx indicator streaming under your ES streaming charts when you trade or if you pull it up from time to time to reference once in a while during the trading day? I am asking you this question because I feel that too much stimulus from looking at too many indicators while trading could mess with ones trading psychology & main focus on trading. Thanx Don as I value your trading processes and find you as an invaluable trading mentor.

Don Miller said...


I have ADX on all my charts 5-min and above, but don't dwell on it too much. Like a car dashboard, it's just there and I glance at it from time to time to gauge trend strength.

Again, just one person's view though. You can get similar info from Bollinger bands, as well as simply looking at the price chart to see if its trending or not.

I agree on trying to keep things simple though, as overanalysis can be a killer in this biz.


Severino said...

Hello Don,

Okay, it’s been about 2 months (December 11 I think) since we had a play by play day. Actually tomorrow would be okay. I was thinking 1 post every hour would not be bad. I think that is only 6 with the “I do not like to trade the last 30 minutes” thrown in there.

I do follow Dr Brett on Twitter, sure would be nice to follow the Master there as well.

What do you think, throw the dog a BONE?



This one is bad but I couldn’t stop Watching……..

Don Miller said...

Hi Sev -

Cute pics.

I realize some want more of that and I'll keep it in mind, yet please remember this is first and foremost my diary and my personal focus and trading P&L come first.

Similar to a poker player sitting at the table, it's usually highly unproductive to trade and document simultaneously, and I've typically only done so in the past when I feel my focus is wavering and I need to tighten things up.

Right now, I'm in a bit of a zone and frankly don't want to change anything ... including my socks.

I'll likely never go the Twitter route as I strongly believe people have two choices ... they can trade or they can chat, and the two are mutually exclusive.

Of course the minute I write this, I'll probably find I need to tighten things up and revert to a momentary play-by-play.


Sneezy said...

What do like about this blog?

I like hearing and reading you thinking and emotional PROCESS. I'm here to improve my trading and find a little camaraderie. Watching your reactions from day to day is very helpful. Also, I'm tired of the endless selling of systems and ideas I've seen over the past 15 years. It's nice to see someone giving freely.

trader said...

It is hard but necessary to recognize the market parttern. Do you have any other weapons to decide if it is a trend-day or oscillation-day beside "morning-after-trend-day"?
Last week, Tursday was a trend day, did you prepare for a oscillation-day for Friday which was a trend day?

Don Miller said...

Trader -

Nope ... I always look to "initially" trade the morning after a trend day expecting oscillations.

And I did expect some early oscillations on Friday which over time has proven a high probability trade for me, and as noted took a rather rare full stop and reversed as the lower probability result played out.

It's always about probability. And like poker I have no qualms trading the expected pattern and simply adjusting when it isn't there.


MACDOW said...

Barron's simply made it too easy yesterday by both teeing it up for me and putting the club in my hand.

They are lucky you did not hit them over their corporate head!
As usual a nice post and better still to the point.