Thursday, June 4, 2009

Thursday Notes - Coiled

4:00pm Despite the scratch day (a bit early on some wholesale entries, a midday fourth opinion on my back, and one regret on sleepwalking through the 10:22am 1-min continuation north trigger), I feel my trading is coiled big time and poised for a breakout that's been building over the last few weeks ... if not months.

I say that in part because I began to ramp up size a bit, feel the swagger returning, and while I fouled off some pitches today on the precision timing, I got the solid part of the bat on several balls and I'm getting that feeling that it may just be a matter of days before I'm back to my old trading self and start putting together a string of five-figure days with some bounties thrown in.

It's a feeling that's hard to describe, yet one that I've sensed before with high probability.

It may not be tomorrow (after all, it's a Friday and I don't expect to push it), but I'll bet a Filet Mignon at the upcoming cookout that by next Friday, I'll have banked my best day of the year.

I can taste it.

The breakout ... not the Filet.


Sam said...

Wow @ putting yourself out like that! This can either be interpreted as having utter confidence in your trading ability or minimal respect for the market. I'm more inclined to think the former, as this is a good technique for geeing yourself up.

Good luck and hope you have a good next week. Me, I'm happy to scratch and claw and finish higher on my equity curve rather than temping fate with such bold proclamations ;)

pinebilly said...

Hi Don..

Great blog really enjoy it. Its unusual to find a blog like this regarding trading (very honest and open, I appreciate that as I am sure many others do as well.) I was wondering if you had an email address that I could email you some questions that I have or would you prefer I just ask away on the blog? I used to work on the cme floor and traded prop in Chicago for a bit and was hoping we could speak via email. I have looked on this site but havent had any luck in finding an email address that I could try. Glad to hear things are shaping up, I can definitely see some confidence coming back in regards to your posts.

Don Miller said...

Sam -

Not putting myself out at all ... remember this is simply a personal diary and if it happens, it happens.

There's a huge difference between "confidence" -- based on years of knowing thyself -- and "cockiness", and the market will ALWAYS have my respect, lest we look back at a year's worth of posts focusing on that time and time again.

I simply know my capabilities and record, as well as why my focus has been off which has kept me from being as aggressive as I was in recent years.

Let's put it this way. I feel the blood is starting to pump for the first time in 2009, and the coming months should be interesting ;-).


Don Miller said...

ratsystem -

Thanks. Post away, as I don't respond via email largely so all can participate in the dialogue.

And yea, the tide may be turning.


Don Miller said...

Poker night tonight ... back in 1st place with 4 weeks to go.

Kinda funny though ... that first comment. Methinks someone needs to read the last 380 entries.

Reminds me of some of the posts back in mid '08 ... which became motivational bulletin board material and helped light the fuse.


pinebilly said...

Ok thx Don.

I was introduced to your blog just recently so I havent had a chance to read it all so if the answers lie within you can just tell me to "read more."

Obviously you are a seat owner or lease seat due to your high participation rate in the market.

Would you say on your good days that you are trading less and taking more out of the market or are you for the most part taking a few ticks out here and there and waiting for your setups over and over during the day. I guess what I am trying to gauge is what is an average winner to you on a good day (I know it can be a tick or two at times as well.. with some size.. adds up)

That is all for now. Really enjoy the blog.

Anonymous said...

Ha!!! Lets make sure that we BOTH are on the same side of the profitable trade once you start to pull the trigger; it could be costly for me to be going against the grain..:)

Time for Don to rock..

steve said...

I think Don is describing "flow" in this post today, and I love it. For a performance based activity/sport, there's not much better. There's a boatload of lit about the flow concept and mind-state out there, both trading related and mostly non-trading related.

Don Miller said...

Jay -

See recent posts, including Tuesday's. I also dumped the daily scorecard for now to step up the focus on the longer term picture.

As always, this remains a personal diary first and foremost, so I'll make changes as appropriate if I believe they're in my bottom line's best interest.


Don Miller said...

ratsystem -

The best analogy I can make is to an athelete (after all, this is a mental sport) in terms of when I tend to do well, which is when I'm highly motivated and focused ... which has been an issue for much of this year ... and when certain very high probability market conditions are in my favor, such as the morning after a strong trend day and when emotion is clearly evident in the markets.

I don't track per trade stats or think there's any correlation between my volume and P&L, as sometimes I'll do well by nailing just a few sequences and other times I'll keep hammering if I'm down, frequently scalping or providing liquidity.

Some of the key posts in the lower left link may help put my style and tendencies in perspective.


Jd said...

11 years as a day trader and when I'm in scratch and claw mode it usually means not pushing forward so quietly slipping back. No offense Sam but I think the coil analogy is perfect, also is my favorite trade type. With proper risk management and a moving average of your pnl in mind I think coming in with a breakout attitude is always right. "Running Scared" and loving every minute of it as Longstreet wrote is where I wish I could be everyday, but sometimes the energy level isn't there..

Don Miller said...

JD -

Well said in my view ... especially regarding the energy level.


Andrew said...

Very interesting blog Don, (though much of the trading language is still beyond me). It reads a bit like a kind of Zen and the Art of Trading. I've spent years dabbling and dithering in financial markets and never looked beyond the fundamentals - so called. Then, about 6 months ago I discovered that behind all the pomp and suits were these absolutely amazing charts...!

Good luck with the goal. Wish I could make the cookout, filet mignon served or not, but it's a bit too far from Bonnie Scotland.

Cheers Aye!

pinebilly said...

Thx Don.. really appreciate it. I will read some more links.