Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Wednesday Notes - First Lap End in Sight

4:30pm I'll start off by saying I have two regrets today, one for not holding the post 2:55pm short longer after ES probed 800 only to immediately fall back (you just knew if ES didn't squeeze shorts further after that magic number probe, that the tank was likely empty), and the second for not shorting the subsequent 3:12pm right shoulder, although I did short the confirming move back down through 791. Ideally, that entry would have instead been an add to an initial right shoulder entry.

Yet other than that, I clocked an OK +$10K chip gain on the day where about 2/3 of it came from fading the post-FOMC moves on unsustainable +1400ish TICKs (my ESignal chart actually ticked +1562 ... keep in mind the #s vary by provider), although I kept sizes light as my main goal on FOMC days will always be to score the "Avoiding Trouble" scorecard objective greener than green.

So absent any crazy overnight action, Thursday will start with a fairly well-defined range of 780 to 800, with ES closing near the middle of a range it hasn't seen in about a month.

In terms of my personal trading, I simply have to build on recent momentum to finish the first quarter a helluva lot better than I started it. Only nine sessions remain before reaching that first major marker of the year, and I need to be ahead of my $1M goal pace.

As I stated recently, the goal this year is now set at "Back to Back" $1 Million performances, and I still need to step it up a few notches to hit some resemblance of my stride. I'm seeing glimpses, but I'm still not there yet as I seem to be lingering in "cruise" mode and need one solid kick in the a$$.

Yet for now, all eyes are on finishing the Q1 lap strong, before making the turn for the remaining three. Nine more strokes, and then we'll officially clock in.

Maybe the silly pool analogy that kept me going through 2008 will help.

Now I just need to find and catch the French guy (old joke familiar to those following last year's journey, referring to Alain Bernard in the Olympic relay).


E said...

Hi Don

Congrats on your consistent approach and results.

You're like a printing press when it comes to making money.

Get any better, the government will put you to work.

Any thoughts on "position" trades for the next significant move?

I know you are not necessarily a position trader but just curious about your opinion.

Be well all.

Don Miller said...

No thoughts on positions stuff E ... I have enough of a challenge focusing on the next five minutes :-).

If I were to trade longer term, I'd likely look at the longer term charts (hourly, daily, weekly, etc.) as I do the shorter intervals in terms of trending, extremes, etc. to find wholesale opportunities, yet my strength clearly lies within the shorter timeframes.