The Weekend Trader - How Bad Do I Want It?

Well, I'm beginning today's weekend edition just before 6am on a Saturday, partly because I didn't sleep all that well on a night where I typically make up for all of the lost sleep for the week.

Yet this week was a bit different, with a number of distractions that included the flu, a continued battle with an increasingly troublesome pinched nerve that's now constant and has prompted visits to four doctors (including a neurosurgeon), non-market related business issues I've had to deal with (yes, don't forget I do have another income stream to pay the bills that requires daily attention), and my wife and youngest daughter completing a weeklong tour of several colleges in the Northeast while having van trouble on the way home on Friday.

btw, she's so far looked at Dartmouth, Marist, Vassar, and Yale ... with William & Mary and Boston University coming up on the summer tour if you have any feedback. She'll likely graduate as valedictorian unless she completely falls apart next year, and is looking to the sciences. This is our daughter who six years ago was struggling for survival before being diagnosed with Type 1 diabetes.

And if you want an article of true inspiration and a rare peek into my family life, check this one out which appeared on the front page of our local paper a year ago and was nationally syndicated, as she's already faced more from a life-challenging perspective than I'll ever face.

And speaking of family, a major tip of the hat to my wife Debra who is continuing on her journey to once again get healthy and fit after having spent the last two decades devoting her life to our kids and fighting her own health battles as she too was struggling for life just a few years ago with a massive appendix rupture and serious infection that required multiple surgeries. She's lost 55 pounds since December (she's allowed me to say this!) in Valerie Bertinelli fashion, and is finally seeing her own Bamboo Tree sprout this year. She is and will always be the love of my life.

And so what does any of this have to do with trading? Well, nothing ... and everything.

For trading and life will always remain forever intertwined. Recall this excerpt from last year's final post ...

"And if you haven't figured it out by now, this blog goes far beyond my trading race. It's about life's race. Trading is a game ... nothing more. It pales in comparison to life's true priorities, and simply provides us with the analogy of all analogies, and parable of all parables. It provides us with a unique practice field on which we can learn and then try to apply the principles to life. The better we trade, the better we live, and the better we live, the better we seem to trade. For me, the $1.6M score will mean nothing unless I can now apply the learned principles going forward, especially to life."

And so right now, aside from dealing with this dang pinched nerve which has undoubtedly affected my focus (I may have to start trading left-handed!), life is very good and comfortable for me ... which is the death knell for success in any sport, whether it be physical or mental. And yes, competitive trading is a mental sport. Forget the debates, it is and always will be.

And so the question for me right now is the same question I've asked to thousands of traders in public speeches over the years: How bad do I want it? Am I willing to continue to make the life sacrifices necessary to retain the around-the-clock sharp focus and skill required to continue a journey of profit maximization? Right now, it's pretty obvious I don't want it that bad ... for the moment anyway.

Most know that I could walk away from this and/or my other business at any moment, at any time, and never have to worry about working so long as I live. Thirty years of business toil topped off with a hard-earned $2 Million trading reward over the last five quarters will do that. As always, I share this not to boast ... simply to state reality. And if you're new to this journey or don't believe that, just do a blog search for "suck", "stupid", or "hell". As always, this blog remains a very open look into this trader's journey. The good, the bad, the successes, the losses, the days of disgust, the days of rejoice, the prolonged time in the zone, the flat periods ... they're all there and are all of course a part of the trading life cycle.

Last year, the cornerstone fictitious drawdown concept and this blog - with all the corny analogies to sports and movies - were new motivational tools that helped fuel the competitive fire. This year, I added the daily performance scorecard to continue to try to fan the flames. They all worked far beyond my expectations ... for a while.

Yet right now, the fire is dim and I have as much ambition as the driver in the photo to the right.

In a few days, despite a horrendous month for me in terms of earnings growth that will rank the lowest in a few years, our brief month-end check will likely show I'm still on pace for another $1M year (albeit barely) which of course remains my current annual goal. Yet another month of ambivalence and lackluster interest & performance will quickly end any hope of doing what few traders have ever accomplished in terms of back-to-back million dollar performances.

There's no doubt I'm seeing firsthand how difficult it is to sustain the mental fortitude that's required for sustained peak performance over the long run. It's why as I mentioned a few months ago that the top annual CTAs as published by Futures Magazine rarely repeat or do well is successive years. It's also why sports dynasties are so rare and characterized by continued rejuvenation with new players mixed with veterans. Even John Henry has had some recent terrible years.

Someone suggested last night that I'm not doing well this month because I've mentally conditioned myself to believe I usually do poorly in April. And while I can see how that conclusion can easily be drawn, it's not the case at all. It's certainly true that I have particular months where I've done well over the years (March, October, & November), yet data simply is what it is, and subsequent months usually simply reflect a mental "exhaling" that's natural after peak performance. For this is a business where a bulk of one's annual income is often made during a short period of time as was the case in 2008 where about 50% of the income was made over a 3-month stretch. You push when it's there, and back off when it's not. One day can make a month, one month a year, and one year a career. The goal of course remains to profit from every trade and every day, just as the goal of shooting baskets is to make them all. News to newbies ... they don't all go in.

No, the root of the current issue is lack of interest, focus, and motivation as I've fallen into a spell of preserving earnings as I did in late December.

In December of course, slowing down was clearly one of the best decisions I've ever made in my trading career. Time will tell if the same will be true for the last few weeks and whether I somehow find the stamina to complete the 2009 race which I may decide will be my last ... at least from a competitive perspective. I'll always trade for fun and part-time income probably until the day I die.

Right now, life is good. Perhaps too good.

And so perhaps it's best to look to a better writer, as we did on December 19 when we locked up last year's race:

... the race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, nor does food come to the wise or wealth to the brilliant or favor to the learned, but time and chance happen to them all. -- Ecclesiastes 9:12

Time will tell how long I'll be blessed with this phase of life's race before it's someone else's turn.

Yet right now, I'm still holding the baton and am not ready to pass it.

Frankly, you'd have to rip it out of my hands ... so perhaps that's a good sign.

Have a great weekend.