Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Tuesday Notes - Bogey-Free Round

4:00pm Continuing yesterday's theme of simply trying to make "par" trades until volatility picks back up on a consistent basis, I was fairly pleased with today's round of +$7K on a highly efficient 632 contracts. For new onlookers, keep in mind the light, medium, and dark green bottom line color codes on the daily scorecard correspond with < +$7.5K, < +$15K, and > +$15K respectively, so today's score remained light green, albeit in the upper end of the range.

Most of the day's chip gain came from fading unsustainable extremes, first from the morning DAX trade which had gone parabolic upon return of Europe traders from the four-day weekend, and then from the ES mini-barf shortly after noon on price vs. TICK divergences (each price low had a higher TICK reading -- see chart -- and given the chop of late and time of day where runs typically don't extend, served up a low-risk, high-return opportunity).

And so the current game remains staying away from the sand and water until we hit those Par 5s where I can air it out a bit.

I suspect we'll see a pick-up in volatility soon, as the market never does the same thing for very long, yet I'll continue to try to stay away from the prediction business and focus on making shots.

See you at the tee in the morning.


Severino said...

Hello Don,

I have tick on the same chart as the ES (as you can do on TS). After looking at it for too long could you help me please, and be a little more specific on the time of divergence.
My angst is high but my appreciation would be higher.

Thanks as always.


Don Miller said...

Sev -

I added a link in the initial post with the chart pics.

Hope it helps.