Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Wednesday Notes - Continued Slop

First, a thanks to Linda Raschke and her team for inviting me to speak in her forum this afternoon. I hope all found it worthwhile. There's nothing like talking shop after hours to keep one's head in the game.

As for today's trade, today's scorecard reflects a decent turnaround from a rough start to end the day with at least some confidence as we continue to deal with horrendous market pace ... at least for those of us that don't prefer the range game.

For a while, it looked like I'd have the first consecutive losing day stretch of the year as I'd officially call my trading over the last session and a half a "slump", until deja vu struck shortly after noon with almost the identical setup to yesterday's stopped trade opportunity presenting itself (see chart, click to enlarge ... and no, that's not the same chart as yesterday ... it just looks that way) which I again jumped on which promptly turned a frustrating and unprofitable morning around.

And if it had turned out again today that it didn't pay, I'd do it again the next time ... and the next ... and the next. They're just shots at the basket gang ... they don't all go in.

Anyway, I continue to grade the current market pace red (there's no color for "puke") until such time I can either get in better rhythm with the current start and stop pace on little volume, or until the band stops taking breaks so we can dance.

Until then, capital preservation and maintaining confidence remain key as I wait for the game to open up.

10 comments:

steve said...

And what a wonderful session it was! Thanks Don! Insightful, educational, motivational, and inspirational.

Swing Trader said...

Didn't see your usual number for today. Hope it's not something subconscious, but just the rush.

Jack said...

Hi Don. I came across your blog recently and enjoy it quite a bit. Thank you! Regarding your charts, do you mind sharing the settings for your moving average?

Jack

Ygol said...

I found your class at LBRgroup very interesting. As you said: "... industry is full of smoke, mirrors & hype, such that it's often difficult to tell what's real, or more importantly, what is POSSIBLE. ..."

It is really very valuable and useful to get precise and trustworthy information about what is achievable. Thanks again.

Don Miller said...

Hi Jack -

I use 15 & 20 SMAs, yet don't advocate specific #s as just getting "something" that helps eyeball a trend channel is where it's at.

Don

Don Miller said...

Thanks Steve and Ygol.

'twas fun :-).

Don

filmrobot said...

Hi Don,
Just wondering if there is a section in the blog archives that describes the typical trade sequences that you refer to? I'm trying to reconstruct today's trade trigger via the ES/TICK/VIX charts in today's post.

Comments much appreciated..Cheers, Mark

John said...

Hi Don,

Nothing better than lunch with a C&H!

John

Don Miller said...

Not sure what you mean Swing ... if you're referring to the daily chip stack result, it's color coded in the scorecard.

Remember this is my personal diary and the day's results are meaningless except in aggregation at the end of the year.

Peter Coussement said...

Filmrobot,

You can find more info on High Probability Trade Setups on this blog:
http://highprobability.blogspot.com/2007/03/high-probability-trade-setups.html

It also mentions the relationship between price - volume - vix - tick

Goal is to look for divergences, by example in the Don's screen of today it is the following i think:
- ES makes higher high
- VIX makes lower low
- on increasing volume
- while tick is going towards high of day
--> High probabilty that ES price will rise

Happy Trading!

Peter