Monday, November 9, 2009
Sunday, November 8, 2009
The Weekend "Player" - In the Money
As many know, many of my weekends include continuing to enjoy and sharpen my poker game, which subconsciously helps my trading focus while allowing me to forget about trading for a few days at the "conscious" level ... if you know what I mean.So following up on yesterday's poker-trading comparison post, this weekend consisted of my making a somewhat shorter 107 mile trek north to Rockingham, NH -- versus my usual 130 mile trip to Foxwoods -- to check out the "Rock's" poker room.
I actually wasn't going to do much else than home and yard chores, yet I woke up feeling unusually focused, got my chores done by noon, and then made the drive on a beautiful fall day in New England to play in their 2pm tourney.
And for the next 7 1/2 hours, I played my best poker ever amidst a field of 120 -- with zero mental mistakes and several solid calls, all-ins, and strong folds -- ultimately ending up in the money in 12th after a rather odd beat on the last hand ... more on that in a bit.
Highlights included:
- Playing 3-4 well (no pre-flop raisers) when the flop came A-2-5 to give me an instant "wheel" (Ace thru 5 straight), at which point I checked and then just called the bettors. The turn came 6, where I repeated the same play with two others still in the pot. The river then came K ... another great card as I still couldn't be beat and likely would have gotten anyone with A-K in deep trouble. At that point the initial better bet strong, got called by player #2, at which point I went over the top all-in and got both to call. The result was my $9K stack going to about $30K in one hand.
- Losing the minimum twice, even though each hand played out where I really believed I had the best hand. In both cases the play was checked down to the river where the final card gave me top pair with a solid kicker. One time the river was a K where I held K-Q, and another time it was a J where I held K-J. In both cases I was beat by the same guy that held A-K and A-J, respectively.
- Keeping my tourney life alive during a sequence where I held an Ace high straight throughout the play, but lost on the river. The hand played out that I held A-9, and the flop came 10-J-Q (with 2 diamonds). Action was checked around at which point a K hit on the turn. I bet about 3/4 of the pot, and got called by a solid player with the chip lead (instant warning!). The only hands I could put him on (I was also playing very tight ... and he knew it), were trips (3 of a kind), my same hand, or a lower straight. The turn then came 3 of diamonds, where I put in a value bet (small bet to encourage a call, without sacrificing too many of my chips if I was wrong), at which point he went over the top all-in.
After thinking about it, and as weak as that river card seemed, I realized he had to be holding either my same hand, a lower end straight (unlikely though since I was playing tight-aggressive), or two diamonds. I correctly put him on the diamond flush (he also had the low-end straight which is why he kept calling), and laid down the Ace high straight. Jellie lesson: When the premise for holding your trade disappears -- no matter how good it looked at one time, get out of dodge! The hand cost me about 1/3 of my stack, but at least I was still alive to play, and later came back to make the final 12.
- And finally, losing on a sick play by an amateur where I was 12th and short-stacked, got dealt pockets 5s, and pushed my remaining chips in. Believe it or not, the guy calls with J-2! Of course, the flop then came 2-2-3, and there was no 5 to be had on the turn or river. One of the challenges in this tourney was that there were "bounty" rewards any time you knocked out an opponent, which likely (at least I hope!) factored into his pretty stupid call, which he'd lose the vast majority of the time.
###
All in all, as frustrating as the last hand was, I was very pleased with my play as I really didn't make any mental errors in the 7 1/2 hour grueling session, which was one thing I'd been working on in my game as I usually have one or two blind spots as to hands that can beat me, which also occasionally happens in my trading game if I lose sight of higher timeframes.
Let's hope that play carries over to the trading "table".
Let's hope that play carries over to the trading "table".
Saturday, November 7, 2009
The Weekend Trader - The Ultimate Game
I have been both humbled and honored in recent days as the result of continued emails in support of recent blogging efforts, including a flood thanking me for Thursday's tank transcript (which I've added to the key post menu at the lower left) while others made some rather startling comparisons to a few prominent poker players that have greatly humbled this trader.
So given the current spotlight on the 2009 World Series of Poker final table which takes place this weekend, I thought I'd have some fun and provide my own perspective to some of the comparisons -- while adding a few of my own -- which in turn may help me further refine my goals for 2010 and beyond.
Howard Lederer "The Poker Professor" - I'll start off with one that may actually be the best comparison, as after proving his success over the years, Howard has had to often choose between his playing and non-playing efforts. In addition to continuing to play, he's often seen as a TV analyst and is one of the owners and founders of Full Tilt Poker. And while I wasn't obese like "Bubba" as he had to undergo gastric bypass surgery to lose weight, I suppose there's at least a tiny similarity as I worked hard over the last few months to shed 25 pounds.
Mike Sexton "The Ambassador of Poker" - Mike is perhaps best known as the announcer for the World Poker Tour, yet remains an active and successful player even at the age of 62. Today, Mike will become the 38th person to be inducted in the Poker Hall of Fame, after having earned more than $3.7 Million in career poker winnings. Mike also does a great deal of charity work, and I while I doubt I should be even mentioned in the same breath as Mike, I suppose there are at least a few similarities in terms of his amount of winnings and his blend of playing & non-playing contributions.
Jeff & Barry Shulman - The Shulmans are both key principles of Card Player Magazine, while also continuing to be successful at the table. Jeff is of course one of the 2009 Final Table "November Nine" players who will square off this weekend, while Barry recently won the WSOP Europe Title by defeating 333 other players.
Barry recently commented that he "... started to focus more on my business at Card Player. Since then, I have not been playing as hard. Now, I'm back on the winning trail and feeling very good about it." Been there done that.
Daniel Negreanu "Kid Poker" - In losing to Barry as a result of a two-outer on the river (he could only lose to one of two cards) at the WSOPE, Daniel twittered "Those two key hands will make you hate poker". And while I'm no "kid" anymore, his recent comment sounds like how I feel after a bat beat or poor day of play. Like the other players mentioned, Daniel also has various business interests in the poker community, and can frequently be found commenting on many poker TV sessions.
Phil Helmuth "Poker Brat" - Believe it or not, one person a few months ago compared my ego to that of the brat himself. Hopefully, the only similarity here is that we both appeared in a 2003 side-by-side interview with TradingMarkets. In my opinion, while Phil is one of the most gifted players in the world, he's downright arrogant and degrading to others who haven't yet reached his level of success. If I EVER sound like that, please slap me.
So given the current spotlight on the 2009 World Series of Poker final table which takes place this weekend, I thought I'd have some fun and provide my own perspective to some of the comparisons -- while adding a few of my own -- which in turn may help me further refine my goals for 2010 and beyond.
Howard Lederer "The Poker Professor" - I'll start off with one that may actually be the best comparison, as after proving his success over the years, Howard has had to often choose between his playing and non-playing efforts. In addition to continuing to play, he's often seen as a TV analyst and is one of the owners and founders of Full Tilt Poker. And while I wasn't obese like "Bubba" as he had to undergo gastric bypass surgery to lose weight, I suppose there's at least a tiny similarity as I worked hard over the last few months to shed 25 pounds.Mike Sexton "The Ambassador of Poker" - Mike is perhaps best known as the announcer for the World Poker Tour, yet remains an active and successful player even at the age of 62. Today, Mike will become the 38th person to be inducted in the Poker Hall of Fame, after having earned more than $3.7 Million in career poker winnings. Mike also does a great deal of charity work, and I while I doubt I should be even mentioned in the same breath as Mike, I suppose there are at least a few similarities in terms of his amount of winnings and his blend of playing & non-playing contributions.
Jeff & Barry Shulman - The Shulmans are both key principles of Card Player Magazine, while also continuing to be successful at the table. Jeff is of course one of the 2009 Final Table "November Nine" players who will square off this weekend, while Barry recently won the WSOP Europe Title by defeating 333 other players.
Barry recently commented that he "... started to focus more on my business at Card Player. Since then, I have not been playing as hard. Now, I'm back on the winning trail and feeling very good about it." Been there done that.
Daniel Negreanu "Kid Poker" - In losing to Barry as a result of a two-outer on the river (he could only lose to one of two cards) at the WSOPE, Daniel twittered "Those two key hands will make you hate poker". And while I'm no "kid" anymore, his recent comment sounds like how I feel after a bat beat or poor day of play. Like the other players mentioned, Daniel also has various business interests in the poker community, and can frequently be found commenting on many poker TV sessions.
Phil Helmuth "Poker Brat" - Believe it or not, one person a few months ago compared my ego to that of the brat himself. Hopefully, the only similarity here is that we both appeared in a 2003 side-by-side interview with TradingMarkets. In my opinion, while Phil is one of the most gifted players in the world, he's downright arrogant and degrading to others who haven't yet reached his level of success. If I EVER sound like that, please slap me.Chris Moneymaker - And yes, a few have compared me to Chris who was a "one-hit wonder" in winning the 2003 WSOP main event, who did little before then and essentially nothing afterward. Those comparisons are likely from those who didn't know me prior to that first blog post in July 2008, or who don't know the details of this year's strong P&L.
btw, if you're ever bored, go to the TradingMarkets.com site and do a search for Don Miller. In doing so, you'll find hundreds of posts from when I used to do TM's feature daily commentary. Here's one small sample. (And yes, I had as intense feelings then as I do now.)
###
So what does any of this have to do with my planning for 2010?
Well, I'm continuing to noodle over the flood of recommendations from my October 18 post, and have not yet charted my course.
Part of me wishes I could continue the intense Jellie-type trader training, which wildly surpassed my expectations in terms of participant feedback, industry support, and results. For I know full well that such a non-stop full-immersion experience over a month's time is absolutely the best way to learn this business, whether it be with me or some other successful trader. And many, including a few Jellie brokers, have asked me to continue providing the service.
Yet as I've mentioned in recent posts, the energy required to do so -- and in the right way -- is simply intense, and I'm only one person. And in case you ever wondered, every single pixel on this blog, the educational site, and every aspect of the Jellie Webinars and daily tank training, are 100% my own effort. I have zero staff or outside help, including any administrative or tech support. It's truly a one-person effort.
Plus, as much as I enjoy teaching, I simply love trading -- and one can't do both well simultaneously. And as I mentioned the other day, my income drops when I teach.
So my current plan -- STC as we say in the tank (Subject to Change) -- is to continue to provide trader education by keeping the Jellie Study Session videos available at the discounted price, which will allow me the time and focus during the trading day to take my personal trading to an even higher level. And while I may do an occasional live Jellie effort in the future, it will likely be on a very occasional basis.
I suppose like Lederer, Sexton, et al, the last decade of work and outpouring of support have provided me options. And I still believe -- despite the success of the Jellie effort -- that we can do even more good in this industry whose surface we have still barely scratched.
i.e. Has anyone ever had the guts to trade live on TV every day for the whole world to see???
Including pocket cams of trading "hole cards"???
Talk about raising the bar another notch in terms of transparency.
Perhaps that would be the ultimate game.
Don't put it past me.
Friday, November 6, 2009
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Thursday Notes - Today's Tank Transcript
Since many of you have asked to peek inside our team trading "tank", tonight's blog entry consists of the written transcript from today's tank session.Keep in mind we have two rooms: one consisting of the final Jellie educational team (a small group who I committed to help train as I transition back to full-time trader) and the ongoing networked team of previous Jellies which receives my comments via simulcast. This transcript is from the smaller room.
Also please keep in mind that most of my comments, detailed narration, and responses are provided to the teams via audio (the traders type; I speak and type) and live chart snapshots, which obviously are excluded, yet the written chat log should give you a good feel for the general content.
I've changed the trader names to generic "TraderX" for confidentiality purposes, while also providing some acronym explanations in blue italics, as we communicate throughout the day via shorthand. You can also find some of the abbreviated shorthand explained in my earlier Jellie Dictionary Post. Critical market bias comments are in bold red.
I hope you enjoy this rare look into how we use multiple sets of professional eyes and a strong support network to determine and trade the market bias throughout the day. In today's case, we determined the strong early bullish bias from the outset.
11/5/09 Jellie Tank Transcript
09:29:12 {DonM} OK, focus time
09:30:27 {DonM} ok, market session #2 (Session #2 refers to the general U.S. Session; Session #1 is the Europe and U.S. overnight session which we often trade from 3am to 9:30am ET.)
09:30:29 {DonM} let's go
09:31:09 {DonM} somewhat NML at open (NML = No Man's Land)
09:31:11 {DonM} SOH
09:31:39 {DonM} right in the middle of Wed logjam
09:31:50 {Trader1} agree on NML We're right near the price where FOMC news was released
09:31:50 {DonM} I have zero bias
09:33:23 {DonM} no rush to trade here
09:36:28 {DonM} 49 may be interim support
09:37:21 {Trader2} Been on the bid at 49 for a while
09:37:35 {DonM} 3lb short (3lb = Three Line Break)
09:38:16 {Trader2} ok
09:40:28 {Trader3} I had a bid in for a scalp but didn't get hit...
09:42:44 {DonM} L 5025 (L = Long; Price reflects S&P E-Mini)
09:43:46 {DonM} +1.25
09:43:51 {Trader1} L 50.5
09:43:55 {DonM} ticks seem ok
09:44:07 {Trader1} had tick above 0, seemed to be R-> S @ 49's (R -> S = Prior Resistance Equals Support)
09:44:10 {DonM} holding some
09:45:05 {DonM} 3lb L
09:45:16 {DonM} scr rest (scr = Scratch)
09:46:07 {DonM} back in
09:46:12 {Trader1} fill 52.25
09:46:22 {DonM} whew
09:46:24 {DonM} got in in time
09:46:41 {DonM} +2
09:46:52 {DonM} nice
09:46:56 {DonM} +2.5
09:47:03 {Trader1} +1.5 on half position
09:47:08 {Trader1} free riding for 55.75
09:47:12 {DonM} flat
09:47:14 {DonM} 54
09:48:00 {DonM} nice combo
09:48:05 {DonM} oversold range stochs
09:48:08 {DonM} 3lb long
09:48:12 {DonM} ticks ok
09:48:16 {DonM} break from 1 min triangle
09:48:19 {DonM} 5 min support
09:48:24 {DonM} 4 premises
09:49:12 {DonM} VIX also moving down
09:49:27 {DonM} essentially we opened in a 5 min cup for general session
09:49:33 {Trader1} I used TUB on 49 res to support w/ 5min support & ticks (TUB = Trust Until Broken)
09:49:34 {DonM} plus we had the 49-50 support from premkt
09:49:39 {DonM} ok, now where
09:49:45 {DonM} SOH for the moment (SOH = Sitting on Hands)
09:49:51 {Trader1} 1055 is where bulls had problems yesterday
09:49:52 {DonM} yes Trader 1
09:49:58 {DonM} I gave up a smidge on exit
09:50:04 {DonM} thankfully, got back in
09:50:16 {Trader1} you were so fast in reentry. very nice.
09:50:35 {Trader1} 55.75 out last 1/2
09:50:39 {DonM} very nice Trader 1
09:50:42 {DonM} outstanding
09:50:45 {Trader1} thank you
09:50:52 {DonM} he got 3.5 on that
09:52:17 {DonM} Trader1 is buying lunch
09:52:29 {Trader1} sure am
09:52:35 {DonM} ok
09:52:36 {Trader1} goal now is to stay focused on next opportunity
09:52:39 {DonM} 5 min premise in tact
09:52:42 {DonM} yes
09:53:15 {DonM} 53-54 developing support zone
09:53:49 {DonM} 15 min possible cup
09:53:51 {DonM} developing
09:54:28 {DonM} ticks strong
09:54:32 {DonM} 1st pb should be ok
09:54:41 {DonM} I think
09:54:42 {DonM} lol
09:54:48 {DonM} VIX ok
09:54:49 {DonM} ticks ok
09:54:53 {DonM} 3lb ok
09:55:07 {DonM} might only get one shot at this
09:56:07 {DonM} I think % is on pullback entries
09:56:08 {DonM} vs shorts
09:56:13 {DonM} let me know if you disagree
09:56:32 {DonM} may have to wait though
09:56:47 {Trader3} You are looking at buying into 54-55 support, no?
09:57:07 {DonM} yes Trader3
09:57:20 {DonM} still below Wed high
09:57:33 {DonM} bit of an issue, but not too concerned as I'd be out before then anyway
09:57:57 {DonM} tick pbs only (PB = Pullbacks)
09:58:05 {DonM} missed it
09:58:52 {DonM} sensing a creeper day
09:58:57 {DonM} like I said
09:59:01 {DonM} might only get one shot at a pb
09:59:11 {DonM} ticks inside Wed range
09:59:15 {DonM} price also so far
09:59:23 {Trader1} I saw it trade at 55.50 for only a brief moment as tick neared 0
09:59:26 {Trader1} and then it took off
09:59:27 {DonM} the higher we go, the better the 15 cup premise (15 cup = 15 Minute Bullish Cup & Handle Emerging)
09:59:38 {DonM} not chasing
09:59:52 {DonM} if this is true trend, should have one good entry
10:00:46 {DonM} careful on shorts gang
10:00:49 {DonM} THIS IS STRONG
10:01:09 {Trader3 15m bull cup should extend from here....
10:01:13 {DonM} all signs point to longs on pbs
10:01:22 {DonM} yesterday high test though
10:01:38 {DonM} considering covering any shorts on ticks pbs
10:01:44 {DonM} and focus on Ls
10:02:20 {DonM} really like that 15 min cup
10:03:18 {DonM} tick to 0
10:04:04 {DonM} ticks matching Wed high
10:04:06 {Trader1} air on timeframes 5 and higher, but uptrend seems quite strong, makes shorts tougher to pulloff without getting run over... is this your thinking? (Air = Excessive gap between price and supports)
10:04:21 {DonM} yes Trader 1 ... although air principles always valid
10:04:35 {DonM} one in other room is TUBBING the air and yesterday high
10:04:40 {DonM} so pick your optoin
10:04:51 {Trader1} if he got a good fill at yest HOD then he did well. awesome (HOD = High of Day)
10:05:10 {Trader1} it would be unusual to cut straight thru it...
10:05:12 {DonM} he was early but held
10:05:16 {Trader1} v nice.
10:06:12 {Trader2} L 6.25
10:06:25 {DonM} going L on pbs
10:06:30 {DonM} want deeper
10:06:36 {DonM} but L on tick pbs
10:07:10 {DonM} 54 is 3lb break price
10:07:35 {Trader2} scr +1
10:07:37 {DonM} tough fills STRONG
10:07:55 {DonM} bids not filling
10:08:02 {Trader1} v nice timing Trader2. Good hold.. saw u had a lil heat there.
10:08:18 {Trader2} 1 tic heat
10:08:21 {Trader2} :)
10:08:40 {DonM} want 54s for prime entries
10:08:47 {DonM} but probing small on all pbs so far
10:08:58 {Trader4} got .75 on that thanks Don
10:09:46 {DonM} L 56
10:10:06 {DonM} TUBing 3lb
10:10:33 {DonM} may need to back and fill abit
10:10:48 {DonM} that tick drop got bought hard
10:11:11 {DonM} now what
10:11:19 {Trader3} I'm crying because I was 5.25 bid.... *sigh*
10:11:19 {DonM} 5 min flag maybe
10:11:24 {DonM} 54-57
10:12:17 {DonM} tick tri
10:12:33 {DonM} range stochs should pop
10:12:35 {DonM} oversold on support
10:12:45 {DonM} midrange but price holding
10:12:58 {DonM} up to mkt now
10:13:00 {DonM} as always
10:13:13 {DonM} 53-54 better zone for buys
10:13:47 {Trader3} L 55.75
10:13:56 {Trader3} oops 55.50
10:15:58 {DonM} nice fills guys
10:16:02 {DonM} in lock step
10:16:03 {Trader1} this is very familiar to me. bulls need to hold 55
10:18:39 {DonM} need 56+ to pop
10:18:53 {DonM} tick tri
10:22:32 {DonM} whew
10:22:36 {DonM} s/b ok now
10:22:56 {Trader3} out at 6.75
10:23:03 {Trader2} add at 55.25 and another +1
10:23:36 {Trader5} looking for 5750 final
10:23:56 {DonM} scaling
10:24:00 {Trader2} Nice out for +4 total
10:24:01 {DonM} out
10:24:23 {DonM} holding some
10:24:33 {DonM} had one quickie scratch and immediate reentry on that drop
10:27:41 {Trader5} flat 57
10:28:19 {DonM} still bulish
10:29:38 {Trader3} Air on vix is bearish short term.....
10:29:53 {Trader1} short 56 75
10:30:00 {Trader2} I don't see it but the volume is net short at present
10:30:15 {DonM} range resistance agree
10:31:20 {DonM} still say up
10:31:44 {Trader3} Jellie Divergence
10:32:17 {Trader2} Nice Tick triangle developing
10:32:53 {DonM} still biased L on pbs
10:32:57 {DonM} taking some off
10:33:00 {DonM} and always holding some
10:33:01 {DonM} in case
10:33:04 {DonM} free rolls
10:33:18 {DonM} patience gang
10:33:21 {DonM} this is strong
10:36:36 {DonM} COILED
10:36:52 {Trader1} scr 58
10:37:18 {DonM} weee
10:37:53 {DonM} I'm pushing this
10:37:58 {DonM} exiting up here though
10:38:05 {DonM} hit it hard
10:38:29 {DonM} holding small
10:38:32 {DonM} exiting on further pop
10:38:58 {DonM} FLAT
10:39:01 {DonM} +3.25
10:39:50 {Trader3} good cover Trader1!
10:39:55 {DonM} ok prior resistance now support
10:39:56 {Trader1} lol...
10:40:06 {Trader1} yea I didnt want to be stuck on that
10:33:21 {DonM} this is strong
10:40:36 {DonM} just had to wait
10:40:57 {DonM} thanks
10:41:08 {Trader5} got a piece of that but not large enough... patience, and experience will come
10:41:11 {DonM} nice comeback Trader6! (Trader6 was in other Room)
10:41:17 {DonM} hope I got you on the right side
10:41:29 {DonM} sweet!
10:42:11 {DonM} power of the tank
10:42:14 {DonM} DON'T FADE THE TANK
10:42:16 {DonM} :-)
10:42:24 {Trader5} the tank rules
10:42:26 {DonM} that's why I kept looking around and asking
10:42:30 {DonM} I wanted to stay objective
10:42:38 {DonM} but I saw zero signs of weakness
10:42:45 {DonM} and that coil was building
10:42:54 {DonM} someone was going to get hurt hard
10:43:02 {DonM} and signs all said shorts would be the stuckees
10:43:19 {Trader5} 1st test of yesterdays high held, 2nd one failed... multiple pullbacks.. "i dont trust em", Don Miller, Webinar #6
10:43:34 {Trader2} Volume now net + - shorts were stuck up there
10:44:28 {Trader3} The coil was sloping up too - should I read that as a sign of strength as well?
10:45:18 {Trader5} Should we be watching 3rd push into noon? 2 pushes now
10:47:24 {DonM} going for a brief walk
10:47:27 {DonM} back in 10-15
10:47:39 {Trader2} 64 = high of 10/29
10:58:50 {DonM} got some air out there
10:58:53 {DonM} even on the 5
11:00:12 {DonM} 12 point run from session open ... 20 point run from globex lows ... may need to back and fill
11:00:32 {DonM} noon fade into third push possible
11:00:49 {DonM} ticks a horse
11:01:08 {DonM} air concerning though for Ls
11:01:56 {Trader3} Agree on the 3rd push premise....
11:02:09 {DonM} I'm SOH
11:02:12 {DonM} too much air for me
11:02:28 {Trader3} ok I'm mainly waiting to short the noon push should it appear
11:05:18 {Trader2} 3LB short
11:05:36 {DonM} yes Trader2
11:05:37 {DonM} good eye
11:05:44 {DonM} other room also mentioned it
09:30:27 {DonM} ok, market session #2 (Session #2 refers to the general U.S. Session; Session #1 is the Europe and U.S. overnight session which we often trade from 3am to 9:30am ET.)
09:30:29 {DonM} let's go
09:31:09 {DonM} somewhat NML at open (NML = No Man's Land)
09:31:11 {DonM} SOH
09:31:39 {DonM} right in the middle of Wed logjam
09:31:50 {Trader1} agree on NML We're right near the price where FOMC news was released
09:31:50 {DonM} I have zero bias
09:33:23 {DonM} no rush to trade here
09:36:28 {DonM} 49 may be interim support
09:37:21 {Trader2} Been on the bid at 49 for a while
09:37:35 {DonM} 3lb short (3lb = Three Line Break)
09:38:16 {Trader2} ok
09:40:28 {Trader3} I had a bid in for a scalp but didn't get hit...
09:42:44 {DonM} L 5025 (L = Long; Price reflects S&P E-Mini)
09:43:46 {DonM} +1.25
09:43:51 {Trader1} L 50.5
09:43:55 {DonM} ticks seem ok
09:44:07 {Trader1} had tick above 0, seemed to be R-> S @ 49's (R -> S = Prior Resistance Equals Support)
09:44:10 {DonM} holding some
09:45:05 {DonM} 3lb L
09:45:16 {DonM} scr rest (scr = Scratch)
09:46:07 {DonM} back in
09:46:12 {Trader1} fill 52.25
09:46:22 {DonM} whew
09:46:24 {DonM} got in in time
09:46:41 {DonM} +2
09:46:52 {DonM} nice
09:46:56 {DonM} +2.5
09:47:03 {Trader1} +1.5 on half position
09:47:08 {Trader1} free riding for 55.75
09:47:12 {DonM} flat
09:47:14 {DonM} 54
09:48:00 {DonM} nice combo
09:48:05 {DonM} oversold range stochs
09:48:08 {DonM} 3lb long
09:48:12 {DonM} ticks ok
09:48:16 {DonM} break from 1 min triangle
09:48:19 {DonM} 5 min support
09:48:24 {DonM} 4 premises
09:49:12 {DonM} VIX also moving down
09:49:27 {DonM} essentially we opened in a 5 min cup for general session
09:49:33 {Trader1} I used TUB on 49 res to support w/ 5min support & ticks (TUB = Trust Until Broken)
09:49:34 {DonM} plus we had the 49-50 support from premkt
09:49:39 {DonM} ok, now where
09:49:45 {DonM} SOH for the moment (SOH = Sitting on Hands)
09:49:51 {Trader1} 1055 is where bulls had problems yesterday
09:49:52 {DonM} yes Trader 1
09:49:58 {DonM} I gave up a smidge on exit
09:50:04 {DonM} thankfully, got back in
09:50:16 {Trader1} you were so fast in reentry. very nice.
09:50:35 {Trader1} 55.75 out last 1/2
09:50:39 {DonM} very nice Trader 1
09:50:42 {DonM} outstanding
09:50:45 {Trader1} thank you
09:50:52 {DonM} he got 3.5 on that
09:52:17 {DonM} Trader1 is buying lunch
09:52:29 {Trader1} sure am
09:52:35 {DonM} ok
09:52:36 {Trader1} goal now is to stay focused on next opportunity
09:52:39 {DonM} 5 min premise in tact
09:52:42 {DonM} yes
09:53:15 {DonM} 53-54 developing support zone
09:53:49 {DonM} 15 min possible cup
09:53:51 {DonM} developing
09:54:28 {DonM} ticks strong
09:54:32 {DonM} 1st pb should be ok
09:54:41 {DonM} I think
09:54:42 {DonM} lol
09:54:48 {DonM} VIX ok
09:54:49 {DonM} ticks ok
09:54:53 {DonM} 3lb ok
09:55:07 {DonM} might only get one shot at this
09:56:07 {DonM} I think % is on pullback entries
09:56:08 {DonM} vs shorts
09:56:13 {DonM} let me know if you disagree
09:56:32 {DonM} may have to wait though
09:56:47 {Trader3} You are looking at buying into 54-55 support, no?
09:57:07 {DonM} yes Trader3
09:57:20 {DonM} still below Wed high
09:57:33 {DonM} bit of an issue, but not too concerned as I'd be out before then anyway
09:57:57 {DonM} tick pbs only (PB = Pullbacks)
09:58:05 {DonM} missed it
09:58:52 {DonM} sensing a creeper day
09:58:57 {DonM} like I said
09:59:01 {DonM} might only get one shot at a pb
09:59:11 {DonM} ticks inside Wed range
09:59:15 {DonM} price also so far
09:59:23 {Trader1} I saw it trade at 55.50 for only a brief moment as tick neared 0
09:59:26 {Trader1} and then it took off
09:59:27 {DonM} the higher we go, the better the 15 cup premise (15 cup = 15 Minute Bullish Cup & Handle Emerging)
09:59:38 {DonM} not chasing
09:59:52 {DonM} if this is true trend, should have one good entry
10:00:46 {DonM} careful on shorts gang
10:00:49 {DonM} THIS IS STRONG
10:01:09 {Trader3 15m bull cup should extend from here....
10:01:13 {DonM} all signs point to longs on pbs
10:01:22 {DonM} yesterday high test though
10:01:38 {DonM} considering covering any shorts on ticks pbs
10:01:44 {DonM} and focus on Ls
10:02:20 {DonM} really like that 15 min cup
10:03:18 {DonM} tick to 0
10:04:04 {DonM} ticks matching Wed high
10:04:06 {Trader1} air on timeframes 5 and higher, but uptrend seems quite strong, makes shorts tougher to pulloff without getting run over... is this your thinking? (Air = Excessive gap between price and supports)
10:04:21 {DonM} yes Trader 1 ... although air principles always valid
10:04:35 {DonM} one in other room is TUBBING the air and yesterday high
10:04:40 {DonM} so pick your optoin
10:04:51 {Trader1} if he got a good fill at yest HOD then he did well. awesome (HOD = High of Day)
10:05:10 {Trader1} it would be unusual to cut straight thru it...
10:05:12 {DonM} he was early but held
10:05:16 {Trader1} v nice.
10:06:12 {Trader2} L 6.25
10:06:25 {DonM} going L on pbs
10:06:30 {DonM} want deeper
10:06:36 {DonM} but L on tick pbs
10:07:10 {DonM} 54 is 3lb break price
10:07:35 {Trader2} scr +1
10:07:37 {DonM} tough fills STRONG
10:07:55 {DonM} bids not filling
10:08:02 {Trader1} v nice timing Trader2. Good hold.. saw u had a lil heat there.
10:08:18 {Trader2} 1 tic heat
10:08:21 {Trader2} :)
10:08:40 {DonM} want 54s for prime entries
10:08:47 {DonM} but probing small on all pbs so far
10:08:58 {Trader4} got .75 on that thanks Don
10:09:46 {DonM} L 56
10:10:06 {DonM} TUBing 3lb
10:10:33 {DonM} may need to back and fill abit
10:10:48 {DonM} that tick drop got bought hard
10:11:11 {DonM} now what
10:11:19 {Trader3} I'm crying because I was 5.25 bid.... *sigh*
10:11:19 {DonM} 5 min flag maybe
10:11:24 {DonM} 54-57
10:12:17 {DonM} tick tri
10:12:33 {DonM} range stochs should pop
10:12:35 {DonM} oversold on support
10:12:45 {DonM} midrange but price holding
10:12:58 {DonM} up to mkt now
10:13:00 {DonM} as always
10:13:13 {DonM} 53-54 better zone for buys
10:13:47 {Trader3} L 55.75
10:13:56 {Trader3} oops 55.50
10:15:58 {DonM} nice fills guys
10:16:02 {DonM} in lock step
10:16:03 {Trader1} this is very familiar to me. bulls need to hold 55
10:18:39 {DonM} need 56+ to pop
10:18:53 {DonM} tick tri
10:22:32 {DonM} whew
10:22:36 {DonM} s/b ok now
10:22:56 {Trader3} out at 6.75
10:23:03 {Trader2} add at 55.25 and another +1
10:23:36 {Trader5} looking for 5750 final
10:23:56 {DonM} scaling
10:24:00 {Trader2} Nice out for +4 total
10:24:01 {DonM} out
10:24:23 {DonM} holding some
10:24:33 {DonM} had one quickie scratch and immediate reentry on that drop
10:27:41 {Trader5} flat 57
10:28:19 {DonM} still bulish
10:29:38 {Trader3} Air on vix is bearish short term.....
10:29:53 {Trader1} short 56 75
10:30:00 {Trader2} I don't see it but the volume is net short at present
10:30:15 {DonM} range resistance agree
10:31:20 {DonM} still say up
10:31:44 {Trader3} Jellie Divergence
10:32:17 {Trader2} Nice Tick triangle developing
10:32:53 {DonM} still biased L on pbs
10:32:57 {DonM} taking some off
10:33:00 {DonM} and always holding some
10:33:01 {DonM} in case
10:33:04 {DonM} free rolls
10:33:18 {DonM} patience gang
10:33:21 {DonM} this is strong
10:36:36 {DonM} COILED
10:36:52 {Trader1} scr 58
10:37:18 {DonM} weee
10:37:53 {DonM} I'm pushing this
10:37:58 {DonM} exiting up here though
10:38:05 {DonM} hit it hard
10:38:29 {DonM} holding small
10:38:32 {DonM} exiting on further pop
10:38:58 {DonM} FLAT
10:39:01 {DonM} +3.25
10:39:50 {Trader3} good cover Trader1!
10:39:55 {DonM} ok prior resistance now support
10:39:56 {Trader1} lol...
10:40:06 {Trader1} yea I didnt want to be stuck on that
10:33:21 {DonM} this is strong
10:40:36 {DonM} just had to wait
10:40:57 {DonM} thanks
10:41:08 {Trader5} got a piece of that but not large enough... patience, and experience will come
10:41:11 {DonM} nice comeback Trader6! (Trader6 was in other Room)
10:41:17 {DonM} hope I got you on the right side
10:41:29 {DonM} sweet!
10:42:11 {DonM} power of the tank
10:42:14 {DonM} DON'T FADE THE TANK
10:42:16 {DonM} :-)
10:42:24 {Trader5} the tank rules
10:42:26 {DonM} that's why I kept looking around and asking
10:42:30 {DonM} I wanted to stay objective
10:42:38 {DonM} but I saw zero signs of weakness
10:42:45 {DonM} and that coil was building
10:42:54 {DonM} someone was going to get hurt hard
10:43:02 {DonM} and signs all said shorts would be the stuckees
10:43:19 {Trader5} 1st test of yesterdays high held, 2nd one failed... multiple pullbacks.. "i dont trust em", Don Miller, Webinar #6
10:43:34 {Trader2} Volume now net + - shorts were stuck up there
10:44:28 {Trader3} The coil was sloping up too - should I read that as a sign of strength as well?
10:45:18 {Trader5} Should we be watching 3rd push into noon? 2 pushes now
10:47:24 {DonM} going for a brief walk
10:47:27 {DonM} back in 10-15
10:47:39 {Trader2} 64 = high of 10/29
10:58:50 {DonM} got some air out there
10:58:53 {DonM} even on the 5
11:00:12 {DonM} 12 point run from session open ... 20 point run from globex lows ... may need to back and fill
11:00:32 {DonM} noon fade into third push possible
11:00:49 {DonM} ticks a horse
11:01:08 {DonM} air concerning though for Ls
11:01:56 {Trader3} Agree on the 3rd push premise....
11:02:09 {DonM} I'm SOH
11:02:12 {DonM} too much air for me
11:02:28 {Trader3} ok I'm mainly waiting to short the noon push should it appear
11:05:18 {Trader2} 3LB short
11:05:36 {DonM} yes Trader2
11:05:37 {DonM} good eye
11:05:44 {DonM} other room also mentioned it
11:06:07 {Trader3} last time it went short was 10 points ago...
11:06:08 {DonM} just not sure how much more mojo left
11:13:16 {DonM} Restating: 09:58:52 {DonM} sensing a creeper day
11:13:24 {DonM} seems the case
11:17:45 {DonM} traders seem tired given yesterday's late and today's early action after that last squeeze
11:17:53 {DonM} feel it
11:18:07 {DonM} helluva exit Trader7 (Trader7 is in other room)
11:18:09 {DonM} in other room
11:18:14 {DonM} bailing at 6175
11:22:57 {Trader3} me too - but I didn't
11:23:25 {Trader3} seems like it is usually good for a point
11:27:19 {DonM} too tight a range for me up here
11:27:25 {DonM} even for me
11:27:29 {DonM} that's tight
11:27:46 {DonM} feels like splitting atoms
11:27:57 {DonM} any pop over 60 or strong ticks
11:28:00 {DonM} good exit imo
11:38:02 {Trader3} We could still get a noon push out of this - uptrend is still intact....
11:38:32 {Trader2} Big report tomorrow too
11:38:48 {Trader2} nfp (NFP = Non-Farm Payrolls)
11:44:33 {DonM} I hate to even suggest we look at the daily
11:44:38 {DonM} you know me
11:44:44 {DonM} so consider at your own risk:
11:45:48 {Trader1} why is looking at the daily not typically advised?
11:46:23 {DonM} not usually relevant for intraday activity henry
11:46:26 {DonM} too far out
11:46:32 {Trader1} oh, right.
11:46:44 {DonM} sort of like driving down the street with a telescope
11:48:33 {Trader1} I was thinking to short 60.. I didnt have much of a premise except 3lb
11:48:33 {DonM} not thrilled about the 15 min 15ma angle
11:48:41 {DonM} and ADX
11:48:44 {DonM} thought this might happen
11:48:54 {Trader1} 3lb + air..
11:49:07 {DonM} back into range
11:50:28 {DonM} scalped the -800 tick
11:50:31 {DonM} but got out quick
11:50:42 {Trader3} me too got .50
11:50:51 {DonM} nice Trader3
11:51:00 {Trader3} :-)
11:51:35 {DonM} well, I'll say this
11:51:39 {DonM} good reads on the air team
11:51:44 {DonM} was an issue up there
11:51:59 {DonM} sometimes we (I) can lose sight of that
11:52:04 {Trader2} I'm off home...see ya in a bit
11:52:05 {DonM} when we stare at the lesser timeframes
11:52:06 {Trader1} market tempted me to chase the bull but the air definitely made me hesitate...
11:52:10 {DonM} good Trader1
11:52:17 {Trader3} I'll stand by my earlier VIX comment too....it was bearish but a bit early....
11:52:31 {DonM} yes
11:53:29 {DonM} now stuck bulls again
11:54:16 {Trader3} I agree with your assessment - bulls and bears have felt a lot of pain the last week or so, so the tendency will be for things to die down a bit
11:54:34 {DonM} td (td = Tick vs. Price Divergence)
11:56:41 {DonM} new tick lows
11:56:57 {DonM} not crazy about fighting the 1 min
11:58:57 {Trader1} L 6.25 small size scalp
11:59:28 {DonM} no fill here
11:59:40 {Trader5} I'll be back by 4... see you guys
12:00:01 {DonM} L 5625
12:00:33 {Trader3} noon time too
12:00:54 {DonM} rangs stochs o/s
12:01:29 {DonM} 30 min better than than the 15 imo
12:02:19 {DonM} sweeeet
12:02:20 {DonM} out
12:02:25 {Trader3} me to
12:02:28 {Trader3} flat
12:02:48 {DonM} Trader3 you trading machine
12:03:00 {Trader1} out +1
12:03:12 {Trader1} half size on that.
12:03:14 {DonM} almost identical
12:03:18 {DonM} who taught you that?
12:03:26 {DonM} lol
12:03:31 {DonM} that's too funny
12:03:38 {DonM} our execution charts 100% identical
12:03:41 {DonM} or 95%
12:03:45 {Trader1} 56.25 to 57.25 ?
12:03:50 {DonM} yea
12:03:52 {Trader3} Don - seriously - I'm beginning to think I've got my own life changing going on here....
12:03:53 {Trader1} hah.
12:04:24 {DonM} that's the idea Trader3
12:04:27 {Trader3} :-)
12:04:32 {DonM} I'm not doing this for my health!
12:04:34 {DonM} ;-)
12:04:47 {DonM} shocked I got the 5725 exit
12:04:53 {DonM} thought I'd have to move the last fill down
12:05:11 {DonM} ok, let's NOT lose sight of the 5 min
12:05:14 {DonM} 1 min also still down
12:05:44 {DonM} 30 bull cup
12:05:45 {DonM} BUT
12:05:52 {DonM} 1 & 5 would need to confirm possible extension
12:07:38 {DonM} td last drop again
12:07:40 {DonM} missed it
12:07:45 {Trader1} it seems like we have Daily Resistance MA's fighting the 15/30min Uptrends. impossible to say who would win. This is usually where I struggle as a Intraday Swing guy.
12:07:45 {DonM} shows better on 5 min
12:07:53 {DonM} yes Trader1
12:07:57 {Trader1} but I think if I take high probability setups for a pt or 2.. i'll be ok
12:08:00 {DonM} that's why I like the lesser timeframes
12:08:10 {DonM} can still sometimes find some meat
12:08:12 {DonM} with air, etc
12:08:27 {Trader1} and I think I can still get good free riding intraday swing positions on when the stars line up.
12:08:28 {DonM} 5 vs 30 now
12:08:36 {DonM} 5 may have to work off a transition phase
12:08:37 {Trader3} I saw it but convinced myself it wasn't there because of a lower drop vs the stabilization area.....oops
12:08:39 {DonM} keep in mind lunch hour
12:10:03 {Trader1} RE: Last TD, I was concerned the tick readings were too mismatched
12:10:11 {Trader1} -500 vs -800
12:10:29 {Trader1} ok.
12:11:10 {Trader1} don, are you scaling when you feel some hesitation in the push or do you have preset scales at 1 pt, once you get in? (Note: Responded via Audio)
12:12:54 {Trader3} Trader1 - I scaled in that time because the premise was intact, I went in initially small (ie. not a full position), and I could get a better price, plus I had Stoch, time of day, and tick divergence in my favor for a retrace.
12:13:41 {Trader1} TraderJ: thanks. what does time of day tell you right now?
12:14:06 {Trader1} yah my tummy is rumbling...
12:16:51 {Trader4} lunch sounds good much better day for me miss a few but not complaining
12:18:58 {Trader1} going to take lunch break
12:19:16 {Trader3} me 2
12:19:17 {DonM} yea, going to run errand
12:19:29 {DonM} probably be back around 1
12:19:46 {DonM} 30 min seems to be holding
12:22:27 {DonM} running to bank
12:22:39 {DonM} will have laptop
12:22:40 {DonM} lol
12:22:56 {DonM} a reminder
12:23:02 {DonM} to set yourself to "out"
12:23:04 {DonM} if leaving
12:23:17 {DonM} it will show up as red next to your name at my end
12:23:18 {DonM} thanks.
12:23:25 {DonM} back at 1
12:23:29 {DonM} and then we'll preview the PM
12:36:59 {Trader3} I'm back...
12:59:56 {Trader1} hello again
13:00:55 {DonM} back
13:01:11 {DonM} 5 min cup with 30 below
13:01:12 {DonM} extending
13:02:29 {DonM} got my Wendy's salad
13:02:33 {DonM} watching
13:02:55 {DonM} 30 min remains in play
13:02:58 {DonM} with 1 & 5 confirming
13:11:27 {DonM} range stochs been a great read today
13:12:37 {DonM} pace slow
13:19:19 {Trader4} break above 62 and then a pullback to 59/57 area
13:20:01 {Trader3} a break of the 65 resistance to the upside....
13:20:26 {Trader3} TUB the 65 for the 1st attempt?
13:21:02 {Trader4} hard to think about shorting period
13:21:24 {Trader2} Dow Cash wrestling close to 10,000 so I would expect new HOD
13:21:41 {Trader4} get my head hand to me real fast
13:23:27 {Trader4} then maybe we stay range bound in the the highs
13:23:33 {Trader3} I think you were talking about vix
13:23:37 {Trader1} the lunchtime deep pullback for bulls looked a lot better on the 15min for me:
13:24:40 {Trader2} I'll prolly take a short at 63 -64 (high of 10/29) unless pace really picks up
13:25:59 {Trader1} what would cause the most pain
13:26:20 {DonM} for me, it's that pace thing again
13:27:05 {Trader3} possible 1m triangle forming
13:27:28 {Trader3} squint...
13:28:03 {Trader1} tick still largely above 0
13:28:17 {DonM} back in a few
13:28:20 {Trader1} altho.. I suppose that could change at any moment
13:30:57 {Trader2} Not that I pay much attention to them, but 1062 is the 50% fib ret from the Oct highs
13:32:11 {Trader4} that is interesting
13:32:35 {Trader4} food for thought
13:33:47 {DonM} not interested in ticky tack trades
13:33:51 {DonM} soh
13:34:03 {Trader1} so possible 5 min bull cup. if the 5 min bull cup fails and 1058's dont hold as support, then you might have a range if 1056 holds.
13:34:04 {DonM} mkt is strong though
13:34:08 {DonM} tempted to go L on pbs
13:34:11 {DonM} but haven't
13:34:15 {Trader1} me too..
13:34:23 {Trader1} but it's such a sleeper
13:34:38 {DonM} agree Trader1
13:34:42 {DonM} both rooms saying same thing
13:35:03 {DonM} btw, I like what I'm seeing in Team #3
13:35:08 {DonM} you guys/gal are catching on
13:35:12 {DonM} solid comment
13:35:16 {DonM} decent sequences
13:35:19 {DonM} and in some cases
13:35:21 {DonM} strong sequences
13:35:25 {DonM} keep it up
13:35:30 {DonM} create some personal momentum
13:35:33 {DonM} and confidence
13:35:36 {DonM} that's why we're here
13:35:58 {DonM} air starting to bug me a bit again on the 30 & 60
13:36:02 {DonM} esp with 1 min short
13:38:13 {Trader2} Just FYI the profile looks incomplete between 59 and 56.5 (ish)
13:39:08 {Trader4} does that mean it could go back to fill that area
13:39:34 {Trader2} theory sais it hasn't spent enough time yet...so yes
13:39:41 {Trader1} I work with volume profile.
13:40:59 {DonM} POLR seems up still (See next line)
13:41:03 {DonM} path of least resistance
13:41:33 {DonM} keep eyes peeled on this range
13:44:06 {Trader1} 3lb fake?
13:44:23 {DonM} bit of a cup
13:44:38 {Trader1} ah ok
13:44:41 {Trader1} I was seeing that in the 5 min
13:44:42 {DonM} 15MA angles improving slightly
13:44:45 {DonM} on larger frames
13:45:20 {DonM} watching
13:45:24 {DonM} will likely let it break without me
13:45:26 {DonM} and adapt
13:45:50 {Trader3} no volume yet (or movement) for a real breakout....
13:46:31 {DonM} I lied
13:46:33 {DonM} took it
13:46:35 {Trader3} here we go...
13:46:48 {Trader1} volume is good
13:47:01 {DonM} scalping only though
13:47:43 {DonM} still prefer later pb if it goes
13:47:47 {DonM} so this is small stuff only
13:48:26 {DonM} one more push
13:48:28 {Trader3} It should have pulled out a bit faster, no?
13:48:36 {DonM} out most of scalp
13:48:39 {DonM} holding small
13:49:39 {DonM} sitting around 64 if it pops
13:50:10 {DonM} yea
13:50:15 {DonM} should have dumped it all probably
13:50:18 {DonM} but it's only 1 contract
13:50:19 {DonM} lol
13:50:20 {Trader2} short 63
13:50:24 {Trader2} not filled
13:50:45 {DonM} flat
13:51:48 {Trader2} grrrrrrrr
13:52:04 {Trader1} sell half at the bid and leave half at the offer?
13:52:15 {Trader3} trapped longs on that breakout
13:53:26 {Trader1} dropping like a rock..
13:53:53 {Trader1} but I dont think they are in big trouble till 59 gives out
13:54:05 {Trader1} agree... just not a very clean rbeakout
13:54:15 {Trader2} i saw on 1 min
13:54:18 {Trader3} me niether
14:06:42 {DonM} letting it drop
14:06:49 {DonM} can always short a pb if it's real
14:06:55 {DonM} or scalp a barf
14:07:23 {DonM} daily may be strutting its influence up here
14:08:34 {DonM} you can see a bit of what I meant here
14:08:36 {Trader3} Maybe we should just be trading this as a range day....
14:08:41 {DonM} Where is the true break
14:08:41 {Trader1} great call on that short Trader2.
14:08:51 {DonM} and how much profit potential before it hits resistance
14:09:18 {DonM} HTBO for me now (See Next Line)
14:09:22 {DonM} has to be obvious
14:10:00 {DonM} still feels too much like phone booth trading for now
14:10:05 {DonM} waiting for it to open up
14:10:19 {Trader3} HTBO??
14:11:05 {DonM} read above
14:11:23 {DonM} 4 lines up
14:11:36 {Trader1} L 58 75
14:11:40 {Trader1} if it loses 58 i'm out of here quick
14:14:29 {Trader3} bulls flushed out, bears will be trapped if we now go up - giving fuel to the fire
14:14:47 {DonM} may just get range here into close
14:14:51 {DonM} big report in the AM
14:14:56 {DonM} sitting on sidelines
14:15:03 {Trader3} ok
14:17:27 {Trader3} In that case you are good to go!
14:17:58 {Trader1} 1/2 +1
14:18:16 {Trader3} Good Job! Trader1!
14:18:35 {Trader1} thank you
14:19:22 {Trader1} scr the rest
14:19:46 {Trader1} this momentum wigs me out..
14:20:00 {Trader3} It's almost like MATD
14:21:02 {Trader4} I have no more juice in my tank for this mkt (tired eyes)
14:21:30 {Trader3} Then don't trade until you feel better - 1st do no harm!
14:21:57 {DonM} and how do you import it? TS keeps telling me it already exists
14:22:00 {DonM} sorry for the admin
14:22:10 {Trader4} agree tomorrow another day
14:22:14 {DonM} mkt rangebound ... trade the range if you like it
14:22:46 {DonM} 5 min ADX dropping
14:25:18 {DonM} still want more elbow room
14:25:25 {DonM} letting it drift without me
14:27:05 {Trader3} I had a bid out on that last push down, didn't get filled
14:27:23 {Trader1} 58.50 went quickly
14:27:26 {Trader1} 1 tick and bounced
14:27:41 {Trader3} I was .25 bid....*sigh*
14:28:06 {Trader1} I have been placing 1/2 sizes around the area I like.
14:28:13 {Trader1} sometimes get both, sometimes not. but try to get something
14:28:31 {Trader1} next step is... need to size up more on a good sequence
14:28:43 {Trader1} but this awful pace gives me no such confidence to do that..
14:28:44 {Trader3} That's good info Trader1 - Thanks !
14:29:35 {DonM} DMI indicator very very low (DM = Don Miller Momentum Index)
14:29:37 {DonM} .0001
14:29:43 {Trader3} I don't know - we're moviing about 2pts/minute now .....seems like pace to me!
14:29:48 {Trader1} Don's Momentum Index?
14:29:53 {DonM} sort of
14:29:56 {DonM} DM Interest
14:32:02 {Trader1} I see... air on 30+ timeframes
14:32:06 {Trader1} flatlining 1 and 5
14:32:13 {Trader1} 15 is ... mostly flat, maybe up.
14:33:45 {DonM} still having hard time defining the range
14:33:51 {DonM} for coil b/o's
14:34:05 {DonM} 58 swing low I suppose
14:34:36 {DonM} but prices below that
14:38:35 {DonM} some triangles perhaps
14:43:59 {DonM} funny thing is
14:44:04 {DonM} I really am squinting
14:44:08 {DonM} eyes tired
14:44:11 {DonM} at this tight range
14:46:29 {DonM} today good example of PJO concept (PJO = Prime Jellie Opportunity)
14:46:35 {DonM} it was really one sequence
14:46:42 {DonM} that made the day
14:46:58 {DonM} everything else squinty
14:47:07 {DonM} although the 30 min pb midday was ok
14:48:13 {DonM} SOOT (SOOT = Staying Out of Trouble)
14:48:23 {DonM} 5 min ADX still dropping
14:48:25 {DonM} 11.74
14:50:45 {DonM} 30 min still the story
14:50:48 {DonM} in terms of bias
14:51:55 {DonM} biased L on pb
14:55:17 {DonM} small volume on that pop
14:55:50 {DonM} can't get the feel I had earlier
14:55:52 {DonM} with this poor pace
14:55:59 {DonM} still biased L toward last breakout
14:56:03 {DonM} 60.50 support
14:56:24 {Trader3} td
14:56:47 {DonM} hod resistance of course
14:56:57 {DonM} VIX ok
14:57:41 {Trader5} Im back.. Hopefully, other business done for a while
14:59:22 {Trader3} Are wedges bullish or bearish in and of themselves?
14:59:30 {DonM} rising channel
14:59:38 {DonM} breaks can mean something of course
14:59:47 {DonM} TUB the channel ... that sort of thing
15:00:08 {Trader3} k
15:01:17 {Trader1} do you guys consider the action on the 5 min to resemble a cup & handle? and now attempt for extension?
15:01:18 {DonM} zzzzzzzz
15:01:28 {DonM} bit of a cup Trader1, yes
15:02:02 {Trader3} agree
15:02:07 {Trader1} I am actually having a hard time staying alert
15:02:13 {DonM} don't have the same conviction I had at 10:30
15:02:17 {DonM} might just be tired
15:02:30 {DonM} volume still seems suspect
15:02:35 {DonM} but patterns are patterns
15:02:42 {DonM} and bias there
15:02:50 {DonM} just can't get comfortable wholesale entry
15:02:58 {Trader2} Dow 10,000
15:03:55 {DonM} td
15:04:01 {DonM} might still go
15:04:03 {DonM} not in
15:04:18 {DonM} playing very close to vest this PM
15:05:11 {Trader3} dang it
15:05:13 {DonM} didn't have the stones to short it
15:06:06 {Trader3} me neither....it could have moved like a bat out of you now where the other way.
15:06:19 {Trader1} 3lb
15:06:54 {Trader3} decent volume on that sell off
15:07:19 {DonM} saw the td
15:07:20 {DonM} in time too
15:07:23 {DonM} but didn't take it
15:07:27 {DonM} mind a bit frazzled
15:07:59 {Trader3} I was offering but cancelled it - I'm ok with missing the trade - the edge was there but risk was high
15:17:51 {Trader1} the handle of the cup and handle formed its own handle..
15:17:55 {Trader1} I have no clue what to look at here
15:18:04 {DonM} good eye Trader1
15:18:06 {DonM} same here
15:18:07 {DonM} ;-)
15:18:13 {DonM} sometimes, there's not much to see
15:19:43 {DonM} taking it
15:20:43 {DonM} scr
15:20:45 {DonM} geesh
15:21:10 {Trader3} Dead cat
15:21:36 {Trader1} the truth is I didnt take it cause I was scared. The drop from 63 went quickly with some volume.
15:21:46 {Trader1} it was enough to get me to do nothing
15:21:56 {Trader5} took what.. the td?
15:22:01 {Trader1} Long pullback to 61
15:22:10 {Trader5} ok
15:22:44 {DonM} td again
15:22:56 {DonM} thought the volume might push it there
15:23:04 {DonM} but bailed when it didn't go
15:23:16 {Trader1} great intuition on that bail...
15:23:33 {DonM} pbs remain the entries
15:23:36 {DonM} to now anyway
15:23:58 {DonM} ticks well below many prior highs
15:25:06 {DonM} take at look at that 60
15:25:10 {DonM} prior swing high
15:25:32 {DonM} likely the last try for me
15:25:40 {DonM} traded barely at all in the PM
15:26:56 {Trader3} I reminder to reign in fade attempts due to time of day....
15:27:35 {DonM} yea, but still early
15:27:43 {DonM} last 15-30 mins primarily
15:27:50 {DonM} still 45 mins to close
15:28:03 {Trader3} Are you going vs. 4:15?
15:28:20 {DonM} yea ... 3:45 - 4:15ish
15:28:26 {Trader3} ok
15:28:31 {DonM} but it's a bit vague
15:28:35 {DonM} just meant to be protective
15:28:57 {DonM} possible 1 min h&s
15:29:04 {DonM} at 63ish
15:30:25 {DonM} offering 6275
15:30:41 {DonM} ok fine
15:30:46 {DonM} be that way
15:32:40 {DonM} right idea
15:32:51 {DonM} just couldn't get the pop to short beyond that feeble one
15:38:19 {DonM} long day
15:38:33 {DonM} esp with the less than spectacular PM paced
15:38:35 {DonM} pace
15:40:47 {Trader2} Lovely trend on the $VOLD
15:40:47 {DonM} for those needing some caffeine
15:40:52 {Trader1} L 62
15:40:53 {DonM} Starbucks reports after close
15:41:25 {Trader1} 5min EMA
15:41:35 {Trader1} lol.
15:41:36 {Trader3} neutral
15:42:02 {Trader1} ok
15:42:29 {Trader4} loses 61.25 was holding as support
15:42:45 {Trader4} real fight there
15:43:42 {Trader1} I will barf at 60.75
15:45:42 {Trader1} barfed it out
15:47:32 {Trader1} 5ema sup. 1 min coil. thinking push to 63 again. I was on wrong side of coil looks like.
15:51:41 {Trader1} hrmm... they got me.
15:51:41 {Trader3} SOOT
15:51:44 {Trader1} lol
15:52:20 {Trader3} The only thing I see are fade plays....and now we really are getting to close for those
15:52:30 {Trader3} ...too close to close
15:52:42 {Trader1} this is what I was looking for but I had awful timing on this.
15:52:46 {Trader4} Trader1 just early
15:52:47 {Trader1} oh well.
15:53:05 {DonM} tough time to trade gang
15:54:34 {Trader1} i'm def not chasing this tho. shutting down DOM
15:54:37 {DonM} markets less predictable
15:54:39 {Trader3} Todays range notwithstanding - this doesn't count as a pre-MATD does it?
15:54:42 {DonM} traders tired
15:54:47 {DonM} positions being squared
15:54:51 {DonM} just not high % time
15:55:34 {Trader4} I threw my towel awhile ago
15:58:52 {Trader2} Some size in the DOM
15:58:56 {Trader3} You did the right thing - but possibly should have re-entered if you really had the conviction.....
15:59:19 {Trader1} should waited for the last few longs to barf.. my entry signal was bad.
15:59:57 {Trader3} No such thing a perfect entry signal though...you were telling ME that earlier today!
11:06:08 {DonM} just not sure how much more mojo left
11:13:16 {DonM} Restating: 09:58:52 {DonM} sensing a creeper day
11:13:24 {DonM} seems the case
11:17:45 {DonM} traders seem tired given yesterday's late and today's early action after that last squeeze
11:17:53 {DonM} feel it
11:18:07 {DonM} helluva exit Trader7 (Trader7 is in other room)
11:18:09 {DonM} in other room
11:18:14 {DonM} bailing at 6175
11:22:57 {Trader3} me too - but I didn't
11:23:25 {Trader3} seems like it is usually good for a point
11:27:19 {DonM} too tight a range for me up here
11:27:25 {DonM} even for me
11:27:29 {DonM} that's tight
11:27:46 {DonM} feels like splitting atoms
11:27:57 {DonM} any pop over 60 or strong ticks
11:28:00 {DonM} good exit imo
11:38:02 {Trader3} We could still get a noon push out of this - uptrend is still intact....
11:38:32 {Trader2} Big report tomorrow too
11:38:48 {Trader2} nfp (NFP = Non-Farm Payrolls)
11:44:33 {DonM} I hate to even suggest we look at the daily
11:44:38 {DonM} you know me
11:44:44 {DonM} so consider at your own risk:
11:45:48 {Trader1} why is looking at the daily not typically advised?
11:46:23 {DonM} not usually relevant for intraday activity henry
11:46:26 {DonM} too far out
11:46:32 {Trader1} oh, right.
11:46:44 {DonM} sort of like driving down the street with a telescope
11:48:33 {Trader1} I was thinking to short 60.. I didnt have much of a premise except 3lb
11:48:33 {DonM} not thrilled about the 15 min 15ma angle
11:48:41 {DonM} and ADX
11:48:44 {DonM} thought this might happen
11:48:54 {Trader1} 3lb + air..
11:49:07 {DonM} back into range
11:50:28 {DonM} scalped the -800 tick
11:50:31 {DonM} but got out quick
11:50:42 {Trader3} me too got .50
11:50:51 {DonM} nice Trader3
11:51:00 {Trader3} :-)
11:51:35 {DonM} well, I'll say this
11:51:39 {DonM} good reads on the air team
11:51:44 {DonM} was an issue up there
11:51:59 {DonM} sometimes we (I) can lose sight of that
11:52:04 {Trader2} I'm off home...see ya in a bit
11:52:05 {DonM} when we stare at the lesser timeframes
11:52:06 {Trader1} market tempted me to chase the bull but the air definitely made me hesitate...
11:52:10 {DonM} good Trader1
11:52:17 {Trader3} I'll stand by my earlier VIX comment too....it was bearish but a bit early....
11:52:31 {DonM} yes
11:53:29 {DonM} now stuck bulls again
11:54:16 {Trader3} I agree with your assessment - bulls and bears have felt a lot of pain the last week or so, so the tendency will be for things to die down a bit
11:54:34 {DonM} td (td = Tick vs. Price Divergence)
11:56:41 {DonM} new tick lows
11:56:57 {DonM} not crazy about fighting the 1 min
11:58:57 {Trader1} L 6.25 small size scalp
11:59:28 {DonM} no fill here
11:59:40 {Trader5} I'll be back by 4... see you guys
12:00:01 {DonM} L 5625
12:00:33 {Trader3} noon time too
12:00:54 {DonM} rangs stochs o/s
12:01:29 {DonM} 30 min better than than the 15 imo
12:02:19 {DonM} sweeeet
12:02:20 {DonM} out
12:02:25 {Trader3} me to
12:02:28 {Trader3} flat
12:02:48 {DonM} Trader3 you trading machine
12:03:00 {Trader1} out +1
12:03:12 {Trader1} half size on that.
12:03:14 {DonM} almost identical
12:03:18 {DonM} who taught you that?
12:03:26 {DonM} lol
12:03:31 {DonM} that's too funny
12:03:38 {DonM} our execution charts 100% identical
12:03:41 {DonM} or 95%
12:03:45 {Trader1} 56.25 to 57.25 ?
12:03:50 {DonM} yea
12:03:52 {Trader3} Don - seriously - I'm beginning to think I've got my own life changing going on here....
12:03:53 {Trader1} hah.
12:04:24 {DonM} that's the idea Trader3
12:04:27 {Trader3} :-)
12:04:32 {DonM} I'm not doing this for my health!
12:04:34 {DonM} ;-)
12:04:47 {DonM} shocked I got the 5725 exit
12:04:53 {DonM} thought I'd have to move the last fill down
12:05:11 {DonM} ok, let's NOT lose sight of the 5 min
12:05:14 {DonM} 1 min also still down
12:05:44 {DonM} 30 bull cup
12:05:45 {DonM} BUT
12:05:52 {DonM} 1 & 5 would need to confirm possible extension
12:07:38 {DonM} td last drop again
12:07:40 {DonM} missed it
12:07:45 {Trader1} it seems like we have Daily Resistance MA's fighting the 15/30min Uptrends. impossible to say who would win. This is usually where I struggle as a Intraday Swing guy.
12:07:45 {DonM} shows better on 5 min
12:07:53 {DonM} yes Trader1
12:07:57 {Trader1} but I think if I take high probability setups for a pt or 2.. i'll be ok
12:08:00 {DonM} that's why I like the lesser timeframes
12:08:10 {DonM} can still sometimes find some meat
12:08:12 {DonM} with air, etc
12:08:27 {Trader1} and I think I can still get good free riding intraday swing positions on when the stars line up.
12:08:28 {DonM} 5 vs 30 now
12:08:36 {DonM} 5 may have to work off a transition phase
12:08:37 {Trader3} I saw it but convinced myself it wasn't there because of a lower drop vs the stabilization area.....oops
12:08:39 {DonM} keep in mind lunch hour
12:10:03 {Trader1} RE: Last TD, I was concerned the tick readings were too mismatched
12:10:11 {Trader1} -500 vs -800
12:10:29 {Trader1} ok.
12:11:10 {Trader1} don, are you scaling when you feel some hesitation in the push or do you have preset scales at 1 pt, once you get in? (Note: Responded via Audio)
12:12:54 {Trader3} Trader1 - I scaled in that time because the premise was intact, I went in initially small (ie. not a full position), and I could get a better price, plus I had Stoch, time of day, and tick divergence in my favor for a retrace.
12:13:41 {Trader1} TraderJ: thanks. what does time of day tell you right now?
12:14:06 {Trader1} yah my tummy is rumbling...
12:16:51 {Trader4} lunch sounds good much better day for me miss a few but not complaining
12:18:58 {Trader1} going to take lunch break
12:19:16 {Trader3} me 2
12:19:17 {DonM} yea, going to run errand
12:19:29 {DonM} probably be back around 1
12:19:46 {DonM} 30 min seems to be holding
12:22:27 {DonM} running to bank
12:22:39 {DonM} will have laptop
12:22:40 {DonM} lol
12:22:56 {DonM} a reminder
12:23:02 {DonM} to set yourself to "out"
12:23:04 {DonM} if leaving
12:23:17 {DonM} it will show up as red next to your name at my end
12:23:18 {DonM} thanks.
12:23:25 {DonM} back at 1
12:23:29 {DonM} and then we'll preview the PM
12:36:59 {Trader3} I'm back...
12:59:56 {Trader1} hello again
13:00:55 {DonM} back
13:01:11 {DonM} 5 min cup with 30 below
13:01:12 {DonM} extending
13:02:29 {DonM} got my Wendy's salad
13:02:33 {DonM} watching
13:02:55 {DonM} 30 min remains in play
13:02:58 {DonM} with 1 & 5 confirming
13:11:27 {DonM} range stochs been a great read today
13:12:37 {DonM} pace slow
13:19:19 {Trader4} break above 62 and then a pullback to 59/57 area
13:20:01 {Trader3} a break of the 65 resistance to the upside....
13:20:26 {Trader3} TUB the 65 for the 1st attempt?
13:21:02 {Trader4} hard to think about shorting period
13:21:24 {Trader2} Dow Cash wrestling close to 10,000 so I would expect new HOD
13:21:41 {Trader4} get my head hand to me real fast
13:23:27 {Trader4} then maybe we stay range bound in the the highs
13:23:33 {Trader3} I think you were talking about vix
13:23:37 {Trader1} the lunchtime deep pullback for bulls looked a lot better on the 15min for me:
13:24:40 {Trader2} I'll prolly take a short at 63 -64 (high of 10/29) unless pace really picks up
13:25:59 {Trader1} what would cause the most pain
13:26:20 {DonM} for me, it's that pace thing again
13:27:05 {Trader3} possible 1m triangle forming
13:27:28 {Trader3} squint...
13:28:03 {Trader1} tick still largely above 0
13:28:17 {DonM} back in a few
13:28:20 {Trader1} altho.. I suppose that could change at any moment
13:30:57 {Trader2} Not that I pay much attention to them, but 1062 is the 50% fib ret from the Oct highs
13:32:11 {Trader4} that is interesting
13:32:35 {Trader4} food for thought
13:33:47 {DonM} not interested in ticky tack trades
13:33:51 {DonM} soh
13:34:03 {Trader1} so possible 5 min bull cup. if the 5 min bull cup fails and 1058's dont hold as support, then you might have a range if 1056 holds.
13:34:04 {DonM} mkt is strong though
13:34:08 {DonM} tempted to go L on pbs
13:34:11 {DonM} but haven't
13:34:15 {Trader1} me too..
13:34:23 {Trader1} but it's such a sleeper
13:34:38 {DonM} agree Trader1
13:34:42 {DonM} both rooms saying same thing
13:35:03 {DonM} btw, I like what I'm seeing in Team #3
13:35:08 {DonM} you guys/gal are catching on
13:35:12 {DonM} solid comment
13:35:16 {DonM} decent sequences
13:35:19 {DonM} and in some cases
13:35:21 {DonM} strong sequences
13:35:25 {DonM} keep it up
13:35:30 {DonM} create some personal momentum
13:35:33 {DonM} and confidence
13:35:36 {DonM} that's why we're here
13:35:58 {DonM} air starting to bug me a bit again on the 30 & 60
13:36:02 {DonM} esp with 1 min short
13:38:13 {Trader2} Just FYI the profile looks incomplete between 59 and 56.5 (ish)
13:39:08 {Trader4} does that mean it could go back to fill that area
13:39:34 {Trader2} theory sais it hasn't spent enough time yet...so yes
13:39:41 {Trader1} I work with volume profile.
13:40:59 {DonM} POLR seems up still (See next line)
13:41:03 {DonM} path of least resistance
13:41:33 {DonM} keep eyes peeled on this range
13:44:06 {Trader1} 3lb fake?
13:44:23 {DonM} bit of a cup
13:44:38 {Trader1} ah ok
13:44:41 {Trader1} I was seeing that in the 5 min
13:44:42 {DonM} 15MA angles improving slightly
13:44:45 {DonM} on larger frames
13:45:20 {DonM} watching
13:45:24 {DonM} will likely let it break without me
13:45:26 {DonM} and adapt
13:45:50 {Trader3} no volume yet (or movement) for a real breakout....
13:46:31 {DonM} I lied
13:46:33 {DonM} took it
13:46:35 {Trader3} here we go...
13:46:48 {Trader1} volume is good
13:47:01 {DonM} scalping only though
13:47:43 {DonM} still prefer later pb if it goes
13:47:47 {DonM} so this is small stuff only
13:48:26 {DonM} one more push
13:48:28 {Trader3} It should have pulled out a bit faster, no?
13:48:36 {DonM} out most of scalp
13:48:39 {DonM} holding small
13:49:39 {DonM} sitting around 64 if it pops
13:50:10 {DonM} yea
13:50:15 {DonM} should have dumped it all probably
13:50:18 {DonM} but it's only 1 contract
13:50:19 {DonM} lol
13:50:20 {Trader2} short 63
13:50:24 {Trader2} not filled
13:50:45 {DonM} flat
13:51:48 {Trader2} grrrrrrrr
13:52:04 {Trader1} sell half at the bid and leave half at the offer?
13:52:15 {Trader3} trapped longs on that breakout
13:53:26 {Trader1} dropping like a rock..
13:53:53 {Trader1} but I dont think they are in big trouble till 59 gives out
13:54:05 {Trader1} agree... just not a very clean rbeakout
13:54:15 {Trader2} i saw on 1 min
13:54:18 {Trader3} me niether
14:06:42 {DonM} letting it drop
14:06:49 {DonM} can always short a pb if it's real
14:06:55 {DonM} or scalp a barf
14:07:23 {DonM} daily may be strutting its influence up here
14:08:34 {DonM} you can see a bit of what I meant here
14:08:36 {Trader3} Maybe we should just be trading this as a range day....
14:08:41 {DonM} Where is the true break
14:08:41 {Trader1} great call on that short Trader2.
14:08:51 {DonM} and how much profit potential before it hits resistance
14:09:18 {DonM} HTBO for me now (See Next Line)
14:09:22 {DonM} has to be obvious
14:10:00 {DonM} still feels too much like phone booth trading for now
14:10:05 {DonM} waiting for it to open up
14:10:19 {Trader3} HTBO??
14:11:05 {DonM} read above
14:11:23 {DonM} 4 lines up
14:11:36 {Trader1} L 58 75
14:11:40 {Trader1} if it loses 58 i'm out of here quick
14:14:29 {Trader3} bulls flushed out, bears will be trapped if we now go up - giving fuel to the fire
14:14:47 {DonM} may just get range here into close
14:14:51 {DonM} big report in the AM
14:14:56 {DonM} sitting on sidelines
14:15:03 {Trader3} ok
14:17:27 {Trader3} In that case you are good to go!
14:17:58 {Trader1} 1/2 +1
14:18:16 {Trader3} Good Job! Trader1!
14:18:35 {Trader1} thank you
14:19:22 {Trader1} scr the rest
14:19:46 {Trader1} this momentum wigs me out..
14:20:00 {Trader3} It's almost like MATD
14:21:02 {Trader4} I have no more juice in my tank for this mkt (tired eyes)
14:21:30 {Trader3} Then don't trade until you feel better - 1st do no harm!
14:21:57 {DonM} and how do you import it? TS keeps telling me it already exists
14:22:00 {DonM} sorry for the admin
14:22:10 {Trader4} agree tomorrow another day
14:22:14 {DonM} mkt rangebound ... trade the range if you like it
14:22:46 {DonM} 5 min ADX dropping
14:25:18 {DonM} still want more elbow room
14:25:25 {DonM} letting it drift without me
14:27:05 {Trader3} I had a bid out on that last push down, didn't get filled
14:27:23 {Trader1} 58.50 went quickly
14:27:26 {Trader1} 1 tick and bounced
14:27:41 {Trader3} I was .25 bid....*sigh*
14:28:06 {Trader1} I have been placing 1/2 sizes around the area I like.
14:28:13 {Trader1} sometimes get both, sometimes not. but try to get something
14:28:31 {Trader1} next step is... need to size up more on a good sequence
14:28:43 {Trader1} but this awful pace gives me no such confidence to do that..
14:28:44 {Trader3} That's good info Trader1 - Thanks !
14:29:35 {DonM} DMI indicator very very low (DM = Don Miller Momentum Index)
14:29:37 {DonM} .0001
14:29:43 {Trader3} I don't know - we're moviing about 2pts/minute now .....seems like pace to me!
14:29:48 {Trader1} Don's Momentum Index?
14:29:53 {DonM} sort of
14:29:56 {DonM} DM Interest
14:32:02 {Trader1} I see... air on 30+ timeframes
14:32:06 {Trader1} flatlining 1 and 5
14:32:13 {Trader1} 15 is ... mostly flat, maybe up.
14:33:45 {DonM} still having hard time defining the range
14:33:51 {DonM} for coil b/o's
14:34:05 {DonM} 58 swing low I suppose
14:34:36 {DonM} but prices below that
14:38:35 {DonM} some triangles perhaps
14:43:59 {DonM} funny thing is
14:44:04 {DonM} I really am squinting
14:44:08 {DonM} eyes tired
14:44:11 {DonM} at this tight range
14:46:29 {DonM} today good example of PJO concept (PJO = Prime Jellie Opportunity)
14:46:35 {DonM} it was really one sequence
14:46:42 {DonM} that made the day
14:46:58 {DonM} everything else squinty
14:47:07 {DonM} although the 30 min pb midday was ok
14:48:13 {DonM} SOOT (SOOT = Staying Out of Trouble)
14:48:23 {DonM} 5 min ADX still dropping
14:48:25 {DonM} 11.74
14:50:45 {DonM} 30 min still the story
14:50:48 {DonM} in terms of bias
14:51:55 {DonM} biased L on pb
14:55:17 {DonM} small volume on that pop
14:55:50 {DonM} can't get the feel I had earlier
14:55:52 {DonM} with this poor pace
14:55:59 {DonM} still biased L toward last breakout
14:56:03 {DonM} 60.50 support
14:56:24 {Trader3} td
14:56:47 {DonM} hod resistance of course
14:56:57 {DonM} VIX ok
14:57:41 {Trader5} Im back.. Hopefully, other business done for a while
14:59:22 {Trader3} Are wedges bullish or bearish in and of themselves?
14:59:30 {DonM} rising channel
14:59:38 {DonM} breaks can mean something of course
14:59:47 {DonM} TUB the channel ... that sort of thing
15:00:08 {Trader3} k
15:01:17 {Trader1} do you guys consider the action on the 5 min to resemble a cup & handle? and now attempt for extension?
15:01:18 {DonM} zzzzzzzz
15:01:28 {DonM} bit of a cup Trader1, yes
15:02:02 {Trader3} agree
15:02:07 {Trader1} I am actually having a hard time staying alert
15:02:13 {DonM} don't have the same conviction I had at 10:30
15:02:17 {DonM} might just be tired
15:02:30 {DonM} volume still seems suspect
15:02:35 {DonM} but patterns are patterns
15:02:42 {DonM} and bias there
15:02:50 {DonM} just can't get comfortable wholesale entry
15:02:58 {Trader2} Dow 10,000
15:03:55 {DonM} td
15:04:01 {DonM} might still go
15:04:03 {DonM} not in
15:04:18 {DonM} playing very close to vest this PM
15:05:11 {Trader3} dang it
15:05:13 {DonM} didn't have the stones to short it
15:06:06 {Trader3} me neither....it could have moved like a bat out of you now where the other way.
15:06:19 {Trader1} 3lb
15:06:54 {Trader3} decent volume on that sell off
15:07:19 {DonM} saw the td
15:07:20 {DonM} in time too
15:07:23 {DonM} but didn't take it
15:07:27 {DonM} mind a bit frazzled
15:07:59 {Trader3} I was offering but cancelled it - I'm ok with missing the trade - the edge was there but risk was high
15:17:51 {Trader1} the handle of the cup and handle formed its own handle..
15:17:55 {Trader1} I have no clue what to look at here
15:18:04 {DonM} good eye Trader1
15:18:06 {DonM} same here
15:18:07 {DonM} ;-)
15:18:13 {DonM} sometimes, there's not much to see
15:19:43 {DonM} taking it
15:20:43 {DonM} scr
15:20:45 {DonM} geesh
15:21:10 {Trader3} Dead cat
15:21:36 {Trader1} the truth is I didnt take it cause I was scared. The drop from 63 went quickly with some volume.
15:21:46 {Trader1} it was enough to get me to do nothing
15:21:56 {Trader5} took what.. the td?
15:22:01 {Trader1} Long pullback to 61
15:22:10 {Trader5} ok
15:22:44 {DonM} td again
15:22:56 {DonM} thought the volume might push it there
15:23:04 {DonM} but bailed when it didn't go
15:23:16 {Trader1} great intuition on that bail...
15:23:33 {DonM} pbs remain the entries
15:23:36 {DonM} to now anyway
15:23:58 {DonM} ticks well below many prior highs
15:25:06 {DonM} take at look at that 60
15:25:10 {DonM} prior swing high
15:25:32 {DonM} likely the last try for me
15:25:40 {DonM} traded barely at all in the PM
15:26:56 {Trader3} I reminder to reign in fade attempts due to time of day....
15:27:35 {DonM} yea, but still early
15:27:43 {DonM} last 15-30 mins primarily
15:27:50 {DonM} still 45 mins to close
15:28:03 {Trader3} Are you going vs. 4:15?
15:28:20 {DonM} yea ... 3:45 - 4:15ish
15:28:26 {Trader3} ok
15:28:31 {DonM} but it's a bit vague
15:28:35 {DonM} just meant to be protective
15:28:57 {DonM} possible 1 min h&s
15:29:04 {DonM} at 63ish
15:30:25 {DonM} offering 6275
15:30:41 {DonM} ok fine
15:30:46 {DonM} be that way
15:32:40 {DonM} right idea
15:32:51 {DonM} just couldn't get the pop to short beyond that feeble one
15:38:19 {DonM} long day
15:38:33 {DonM} esp with the less than spectacular PM paced
15:38:35 {DonM} pace
15:40:47 {Trader2} Lovely trend on the $VOLD
15:40:47 {DonM} for those needing some caffeine
15:40:52 {Trader1} L 62
15:40:53 {DonM} Starbucks reports after close
15:41:25 {Trader1} 5min EMA
15:41:35 {Trader1} lol.
15:41:36 {Trader3} neutral
15:42:02 {Trader1} ok
15:42:29 {Trader4} loses 61.25 was holding as support
15:42:45 {Trader4} real fight there
15:43:42 {Trader1} I will barf at 60.75
15:45:42 {Trader1} barfed it out
15:47:32 {Trader1} 5ema sup. 1 min coil. thinking push to 63 again. I was on wrong side of coil looks like.
15:51:41 {Trader1} hrmm... they got me.
15:51:41 {Trader3} SOOT
15:51:44 {Trader1} lol
15:52:20 {Trader3} The only thing I see are fade plays....and now we really are getting to close for those
15:52:30 {Trader3} ...too close to close
15:52:42 {Trader1} this is what I was looking for but I had awful timing on this.
15:52:46 {Trader4} Trader1 just early
15:52:47 {Trader1} oh well.
15:53:05 {DonM} tough time to trade gang
15:54:34 {Trader1} i'm def not chasing this tho. shutting down DOM
15:54:37 {DonM} markets less predictable
15:54:39 {Trader3} Todays range notwithstanding - this doesn't count as a pre-MATD does it?
15:54:42 {DonM} traders tired
15:54:47 {DonM} positions being squared
15:54:51 {DonM} just not high % time
15:55:34 {Trader4} I threw my towel awhile ago
15:58:52 {Trader2} Some size in the DOM
15:58:56 {Trader3} You did the right thing - but possibly should have re-entered if you really had the conviction.....
15:59:19 {Trader1} should waited for the last few longs to barf.. my entry signal was bad.
15:59:57 {Trader3} No such thing a perfect entry signal though...you were telling ME that earlier today!
Rest of Market Wrap provided via audio.
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
Wednesday Notes - Trading Potpourri
Some random thoughts as we head into the stretch run of fall trading and 2009.
The Good Doctor - Kudos to our good friend Dr. Brett for always telling it like is is. Brett recently reinforced the fact that he tried to become a full-time active intraday trader, yet found he wasn't well suited for it and instead turned his energies to helping others. I imagine sharing his own struggles has been of immense help to many traders across the globe over the years, and while I've often been critical of the many teachers/mentors who don't successfully trade intraday, he's a rare exception and beacon for many.
By The Grace of God - And speaking of parables, thanks also to the tremendous outpouring in support of yesterday's Slumdog Millionaire post and "final answer". While I believe it's often better to act vs. preach my faith, you'll hopefully find hints between the lines of this personal diary that reflect the true Cornerstone of my life. As I mentioned above, it's by grace that I was ever born in the first place.
And Speaking of the Blue Wall ... kudos to Jean who emailed me the following:
The Good Doctor - Kudos to our good friend Dr. Brett for always telling it like is is. Brett recently reinforced the fact that he tried to become a full-time active intraday trader, yet found he wasn't well suited for it and instead turned his energies to helping others. I imagine sharing his own struggles has been of immense help to many traders across the globe over the years, and while I've often been critical of the many teachers/mentors who don't successfully trade intraday, he's a rare exception and beacon for many.One thing we both have in common is a driven desire for 100% transparency in an industry where far too much is bogus, and I've learned firsthand over the recent months the tremendous energy, focus, and commitment required to truly serve others. Keep up the good work, Doc!
Blog Comments - While I'll occasionally activate the blog comment feature when seeking input, I've continued to purposely render it inactive most of the time so I can continue to channel my trading focus and energy toward my own trading. I've found I still need to ramp up my energy level and improve focus as I end the recent months of intense live teaching and set some lofty personal goals for 2010, which I believe will be my best year ever.
Life is always about constant choices, and I can choose to either facilitate a chatroom-type site, or carefully manage and direct my energies toward trading. I choose the latter.
Interview with Matt Davio - Thanks to the many E-Mails in response to recent posts on the interview with Matt Davio. It was fun talking about the early days in my own life, which may help explain why I am who I am. As I mentioned to Matt and to one of the team today when asked how I handle poor performing days, I told him it's pretty easy for me to keep perspective since I consider myself extremely fortunate to have ever been born in the first place given the fact that my parents had a devastating stillbirth two years before deciding to give it one final try.
Blog Future - Who knows ... I simply take life one step at a time. As I've said before, it's pretty tough for me to say much more that I haven't already said via text and corny sports, movie, and TV analogies. And while I've thought about going "off the grid" once again as I did a few years ago for focus purposes, the continued interest and feedback continues to fuel the desire to keep this ongoing brain dump alive.
As I've said many times, if you "get" the true intent of this blog, it's not about me ... it's about you. I just tend to have a unique way of using analogies and parables to help people see what's right in front of them.
By The Grace of God - And speaking of parables, thanks also to the tremendous outpouring in support of yesterday's Slumdog Millionaire post and "final answer". While I believe it's often better to act vs. preach my faith, you'll hopefully find hints between the lines of this personal diary that reflect the true Cornerstone of my life. As I mentioned above, it's by grace that I was ever born in the first place.Current Team Network - One of the unintended benefits of the recent Jellie training efforts is that it's left behind a core group of professional, mature, and successful traders who remain networked together during the trading day. To this team, I consider all of you my personal friends and support system, and look forward to a highly succesful 2010 together.
Will I Ever Do Live Teaching Again? - Highly uncertain, primarily because of the energy and focus required to "do it right" (I don't believe in doing anything half-a$$), and frankly because my income drops when I teach (which should be the case for any successful trader). And since I truly believe that the best to instruct is to do so on a full-immersion basis over an extended period of time, it's again a matter of making choices.
Will the Jellie Study Sessions Remain Available? - Absolutely. As I've previously said, I believe the video series reflects the most comprehensive brain dump I'll likely ever produce, and if my kids ever told me they wanted to learn everything I knew about trading -- and in today's markets -- I'd hand them the videos in a heartbeat. And while the industry continues to tell me I've far underpriced them, I remain sensitive to trader educational costs and am maintaining the current discount and donation to charity for now.
Why Don't I Mention my P&L Performance Anymore? - This is an interesting question, especially since I took the extremely rare (for this business) approach to openly document 2008 and early 2009 daily statistics that have since been misinterpreted and twisted in a few places on the 'Net. And while I realize that sharing the data was helpful for some as I used this journal as my daily diary during my personal "race to end all races", and openly shared both the struggles and successes since it seems no one else wants to tell the full story, I've chosen for now to keep such results private ... although you'll see hints of results from time to time.
As for 2009? Here's a hint. It's just fine and will be in the high six figures. And if you don't believe that, a reminder that the wall is blue. Not bad for a year that included post-race burnout, search for new motivation, focusing on others, and a bit of a hiatus.
And Speaking of the Blue Wall ... kudos to Jean who emailed me the following:"I have found an element of your discussion of the wall very relevant to an issue I have with trading: that of believing what I am seeing develop on the chart. Just want to thank you for this image. Have cut it out to paste near the computer as a reminder of the unconscious battle that goes on between my bias vs what is happening, and how it is such a detriment. Have started to create an idea list of why I become blind or dulled to unfolding action that goes against what I want. Goal is to get to a point of being able get past this."
What a great application of the concept.
As I said yesterday, I'm often not even the smartest person in the room.
Or this blog.
As I said yesterday, I'm often not even the smartest person in the room.
Or this blog.
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
Tuesday Notes - Slumdog Millionaire
Jamal Malik is one question away from willing 20 million rupees. How did he do it?A: He Cheated
B: He's Lucky
C: He's a Genius
D. It is Destiny
Those familiar with the incredible award winning movie Slumdog Millionaire will recognize the above opening, for which the answer is provided at the end of the film. And as I mentioned to my fellow trading teammates the other day, I finally joined the ranks of those watching it over the weekend after I returned from my Sunday Foxwoods trek.
Of course, since I tend to live and breathe trading just about 24x7, and like most movies I watch, I saw incredible trading parallels ... at least to this trader's last decade.
Yet before I continue, let me be clear in that I by no means am inferring that my life has been even .001% as difficult as those in the slums of India as portrayed in the movie. So let's not even go there.
Nevertheless, there are a few interesting similarities from a plot perspective, as many continue to be drawn to the mystery and intrigue of following this trader's ongoing journey. And we need look no further than the opening scene above ... although we'll twist the first part of the question ever so slightly:
A: He Cheated
B: He's Lucky
C: He's a Genius
D. It is Destiny
And like the movie storyline where Jamal's actions, motives, and results are scrutinized, various onlookers who have stumbled across these pages over the last few years have likewise considered every single answer long and hard. Examples:
A. He Cheated - This answer has been considered by a tiny minority of lazy trader wannabes who like to talk more than trade and complain that CME seat lessees have a trading "advantage" over everyone else. Is that your final answer? Before responding, you may want to ask the audience, or at a minimum, revisit my second Blue Wall post from September.
B. He's Lucky - This answer was considered by one particular individual several months ago who will go to his grave incorrectly believing that trading is 100% luck, and who refuses to believe that any trader can be successful on a long term basis. And despite speaking to this gentleman for almost an hour one evening quoting facts, figures, and providing reference after reference, I finally ended the conversation with, "well, some of us must be the luckiest people on the planet".
Is that your final answer? Before responding, you may want to phone a friend on that one ... as in my broker at MF Global.
Is that your final answer? Before responding, you may want to phone a friend on that one ... as in my broker at MF Global.
C. He's a Genius - This answer has also been considered by some who believe I simply "know" something that others don't. And while I do have a BSBA, MBA, CMA, and other various initials, have a very unique way of viewing and predicting market behavior, and can multitask with the best of them, I'll tell you that most times I'm not even the smartest guy in any given room.
Is that your final answer? I say go for the 50-50 ... it will take this choice off right away.
Is that your final answer? I say go for the 50-50 ... it will take this choice off right away.
Which brings us to:
D. It is Destiny - Interestingly, I did consider this at times -- especially after we began putting an "s" at the end of "Million" earlier this year and I began considering any day that didn't achieve five figures as a bad day.
But is that my final answer? Well, the 50-50 also removed this one.
So what is the real answer?
So what is the real answer?
Before giving it away, suffice it to say that as was the case throughout the movie, the results have been the product of years of hard work in the trenches that most will never see or understand.
For while I never trudged through latrines or was physically tortured, my current-day results are similarly the accumulation of years of doing things many would never do, such as getting up at 3 or 4am day after day, putting my capital on the line trade after trade, thinking about trading almost non-stop, sacrificing personal freedom for extended periods of time, learning from tremendous setbacks in the early days, and simply getting back up after every devastating blow or disappointment ... day after day, month after month, and year after year.
For while I never trudged through latrines or was physically tortured, my current-day results are similarly the accumulation of years of doing things many would never do, such as getting up at 3 or 4am day after day, putting my capital on the line trade after trade, thinking about trading almost non-stop, sacrificing personal freedom for extended periods of time, learning from tremendous setbacks in the early days, and simply getting back up after every devastating blow or disappointment ... day after day, month after month, and year after year.
Throughout the movie, we're provided the real clues as to why Jamal knew the answers. And throughout the last two years of this blog -- and intense recent Jellie training -- I've tried to provide similar clues as to how I was able to reach the upper echelon of the trading field, which is to get up earlier, work harder, and get up off the mat faster and stronger than the vast majority who "think" they want to become successful traders without paying their dues.
Yet hard work -- as important as it is -- would only be a partial answer.
Yet hard work -- as important as it is -- would only be a partial answer.
As for the real answer?
I'll pencil in: E. By the grace of God.
And since I'm simply a temporary steward of the tremendous assets with which I've been blessed, the real test may be what I do with the assets. Sure, training traders and helping the American Diabetes Association was a start, but I know there's more. Lots more.
For to whom much is given, much is expected. - Luke 12:48
And that's the only test I truly want to pass.
Frankly, it's the only one that matters.
Have a pleasant evening.
For to whom much is given, much is expected. - Luke 12:48
And that's the only test I truly want to pass.
Frankly, it's the only one that matters.
Have a pleasant evening.
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