Thursday, January 8, 2009

Thursday Notes - Seeds of Momentum?

4:00pm Following up on yesterday's post, maybe -- just maybe -- the seeds of 2009 performance momentum are beginning to emerge from their dormant stage of the past few weeks. And while new onlookers may wonder why I've shaded the pattern and pace sections of the attached matrix green when all we had was range chop similar to Monday and Tuesday, those who have been following the blog or have known me for some time will know it's because we had the classic morning after a prior-day trend, which typically provides some very high-probability oscillations -- with emphasis on high-probability ... and therein lies the difference for me. Nothing wrong with chop if it can be anticipated.

Simply put, it's my favorite type of morning that often feels like putting on a comfortable pair of tennis shoes. And while my sizes remain on the lighter side, today's trade was much higher in terms of efficiency as I monitored (and traded some of) the Europe open, and once it confirmed the likely rhythm of the U.S. open, I went to work on ES in the main session buying early dips and selling/shorting early climbs. And while it wasn't a home run day, the performance was as solid as it's been in a while and it felt good to actually have the market provide a plan (as a result of yesterday's trend) before the day got going. Even the "Trade Desire" cell notched up a color to light green.

It was of course just one day. Yet at least the feet seem to be moving on the right path as the new journey begins.

One step at a time.

A reminder the jobs report comes out Friday A.M.

8 comments:

lukas said...

hi don,
when you´re talking about trading lighter size, does that mean your initial position size will be smaller when you enter a position, or does it mean you will not scale in (pyramide)as agressively when a trade is going in your direction? or are you taking all trades with same size but simply being more selective about which setups you trust?
luke

Don Miller said...

Luke -

A little of everything. Just lighter all around ... fewer sequences, lighter sizes, less adding to position, etc.

Don

Symmtrical said...

don , i cant quite understand why you went long on a clear daily and weekly downward trend...

Don Miller said...

Hi Symmtrical -

Keep in mind I often provide market liquidity as a member of the Merc and will frequently fade brief unsustainable intraday overextensions.

As a short-term liquidity providing scalper, the daily and weekly charts are pretty irrelvant to me.

Don

Symmtrical said...

"as a member of the Merc "

not sure what this is please explain this , because u are a memeber of ...... you have to take trades which are losses ?

Don , i have found by using the weekly and daily i can pinpoint exact points of moves in the intraday , it is unique but it works for all intraday markets - the basis is what is known as Multiple Time frame entries have heard of this before ?

- also can ask how many contract you use in a given day

Don Miller said...

Hi Symmtrical -

As a CME member, I pay reduced commission rates which encourages members to trade more frequently and thus help add to the market liquidity.

Like any trader, I can trade as frequently or infrequently as I choose, although if I never traded I wouldn't recoup the cost of the seat lease.

I do use multiple intraday timeframes (1, 5, 15, 30, 60, 120-min), although by the time you move up to daily and weekly charts, they're pretty irrelvant for me.

The # of contracts varies, but you can click on the performance chart in the left margin to get a feel for current counts. It usually ranges from a few hundred to several thousand, with the average likely somewhere around 2,000.

Don

Symmtrical said...

ahah cme member yes , im aware of that .. i saw MERC :)

that's a good size position , can i ask what platform you use to trade on - im new to your blog so im sorry if im repeating alot of answered questions already

Don Miller said...

Sym -

No problem at all with the quesitons.

I use TT (Trading Technologies) for order entry and ESignal for charting.

I'm going to put up a link shortly in the left hand margin to fully describe the platform and general trading station setup as a reference tool.

Stay well.

Don