Friday, July 3, 2009

** VIDEO ** Reflections on Past & Future

Today I spend some time reflecting on the current consolidation period in my own trading, revisit last week's get-together in terms of the trader spouses that attended, and generally think out loud about what the future holds.

P.S. Following up on one video comment, the trend line on the chart is indeed a 50-day line.

P.P.S. If I look a little different today, keep in mind I still have eight staples in the top of my scalp for another seven days!!

10 comments:

James Stollenwerck said...

Don,

Trading Junkie! Trading Junkie! Yes!

I guess that sums it up if I can post this within 2 hrs. of your video on Sat. July 3.

I rewrote a letter to you, oh, about six times trying to get my thoughts together about going forward from the cookout.

Each version gets longer and longer despite my best efforts to edit, and Get It Right This Time.

No wine before it's time.

I'll send it to bostonbamboo soon. Just give me a moment...:-)

Trader Kevin said...

Trading junkie? Yes? Degenerate trader? No, or I'd have traded ESU today.

:)

Trader Kevin said...

"The blog is going to continue. If anything I'd like to ramp it up a bit."

Yee-haw!

Also glad to hear the Lounge might open again. I missed the first go-round.

Madison said...

Hi Don, thanks much for the video.

I'm glad the cookout went so well and happy to see you feeling good about things. My only regret is that i could not get out there to join you, as I live near Half Moon Bay, just south of San Francisco. I actually thought about hopping on a plane and taking my wife out there with me, as she loves Cape Cod, of course who doesn't? Anyway, the timing wasn't quite right this time, but I was with you all there in spirit.

I know I've said this before, but I can't thank you enough for making yourself available on this blog, and being a true source of inspiration for me. Your blog is where I come to, knowing I will find honesty, and the space to be authentic and come forward with anything I'm thinking or feeling. I consider that a huge gift, that I have a place I can vent when I'm feeling overwhelmed, and that I will be heard, understood and respected for wherever I am. I have felt the benefit of the service you provide.

I wish you and your family much happiness.

Many Blessings and Much Gratitude,

Madison

Charles Upton said...

Me a mkt junkie? ...guilty as charged. Though frankly this is usually the only mkt-related site I pop in on over the weekend, as my brain has NO desire to look at a chart again or "count waves" until at least sunday evening or monday AM.

------

'Twas a heartfelt vid Don. And you bring up some excellent trading-related points that I for one have been putting off for some time now and REALLY need to to address if am to increase my odds of makin' it over the long-term in this biz.

I'm old enough now to know that sometimes my inner sense of relentless determination is simply not enough. Other supporting factors must be put into place.

Thx for sharing the wisdom.

Hope you and the fam and everyone else out there(the extended fam we could say) has an awesome(and safe) 4th of July!

:-)

charleS

PS- "oink oink"(pork bellies make that sound right?)

PPS- Trader Kev...thx for that rundown of the life of a politician...seems like the whole process is disgustingly messed up right now. I can see why alot of really good people would want nothing to do with it. Biggest problem right now is once they get elected, they associate spending money with "having influence" and/or "being powerful", so they just go at it full blast and what happens? Massive deficits passed on to generations after generation(or until treasury mkt collapses -- then we at least get VIX exploding higher) Errr!!!! [end of rant]

Trader Kev, best of luck to your right-leaning Mother's political future!

(sorry Don, will try not to get so into politics)

Shawn said...

I guess I must be a junkie too !
Thanks Don and great stuff as ussual.

honray said...

Hello Don,

M & I have returned from our east trip... it was delightful and Cape Cod was a great way to start it out.

Having driven 800 miles to your doorstep, my significant other now has irrefutable proof that there are at least 2 dozen people who are just as crazy about trading as I am... along with an accompanying number of spouses who support the oftentimes grueling experience.

My S.O. asked me what I learned and took back home with me after meeting you and the other traders. I told her that I went to Cape Cod to understand and meet the characteristics and psychology of a very successful trader. As I trade a totally different style, your particular methods and techniques were not what interested me.

I discovered that behind the super trader was indeed the humble, hard working, intense, kind & generous person who had been communicating to the world in his blog for months on end. Your personality was congruent with that of a winning trader. Pushed himself during times of success, recognized weakness and poor play quickly enough to limit damage, humble and unassuming as to never expect a market to do anything for you, or believe that you had mastered the markets.

I would make the assumption that you have been very successful in many other areas of your life, Raising a family, academic achievements, growing a brick & mortar business... Your hard work and perseverence certainly has rewarded you as it should.

You do not appear to have lightning fast reflexes, superior technological wizardry, or use chemical substances to aid your trading. You are in fact, human. I believe your success was built on your strength of character, mental fortitude, never give-up attitude, and consistent modesty.

I mention all this because there is a tie-in with The Turtles. Curtis Faith described how a ~dozen traders were given a successful trading method and asked simply to follow the rules consistently. Same system, multiple personalities, very few successful traders. As I spoke to a few other traders present, it seemed there was a common theme-the only thing stopping them from greater success... was themselves.

I too, suffer from streaks of "trading greatness" ... followed by self-destructive behavior performed by a seemingly different person altogether. As a relatively new trader, I remember the beginning stages very well. You wonder if you have an edge, the workings and movements of the market are a complete mystery. Later on, you figure out how to identify assymetrical Reward-Risk opportunities... an edge is born. Still somehow, you are not quite human-ATM who runs on eggs, bacon & tea. Curtis faith was right, many other trading psychologists and gurus were also right, it's the psychology of a trader that sets him/her apart from the rest. I've now come full circle and returned to the core message of Faith's book.

I truly appreciate the opportunity to shake your hand in your own home.

A real-life community of traders in Cape Cod was a real treat... dare I say, spiritually?

Thank you so very much, once again!

I trust your instincts and good habits will bring you an upside breakout on your own equity curve.

H... from Detroit

Two Jacks said...

Hey Don.

I couldn't resist your call for a stochastic for your equity curve. I have made a point of understanding the math behind indicators, so I just happen to have one lying around that you can use.

SlowStochastic(10,10)

Let's say your data is in column A. Put these equations in B & C, then graph B&C together to get "oversold/overbought" readings, with C being your signal line.

Column B = (A10-MIN(A1:A10))/(MAX(A1:A10)-MIN(A1:A10))*100

Column C = AVERAGE(B1:B10)

You'll have empty cells or meaningless answers in the first nine rows, but after that you should have something worth viewing, you know, for the fun of it.

Cheers.
Jack

Ken said...

Hi Don,

Add me to the list of market junkies. After the hometown parade and a belly full of BBQ, I needed to have a few moments with my beloved charts and market blogs on the 4th. I've been following you "virtually" in some form or another since my trading days began 10 years ago. Happy 4th and I would look forward to a more interactive forum with like-minded traders. Heal Well~ Ken

ross said...

Don,

Long time reader, thought I would just stop by to say hello from Sydney. Look forward to seeing what comes of this new "turtle trader" initiative.

Ross.