Friday, July 10, 2009

Friday Notes - One Shot

3:30pm One of the things I'll be focusing on during the Jellie effort is looking for that "one shot" that usually occurs over the course of the day that provides "that" trade. Especially in the current environment -- as opposed to 2008 -- where it's often "you snooze, you lose" and you have to search for it, spot it, and take it.

As one onlooker astutely pointed out a short while ago, markets with higher volatility provide opportunity to start a day poorly, yet finish strongly. Contrast that with the current market where you often simply get that "one shot", which was the case in my own trade today as it was a single sequence that provided the day's keep by shorting the 12:30pm climb toward 15-minute resistance and covering quickly on the first reaction down. There admittedly wasn't much room for error as the cover had to be quick, yet my execution once again seemed sharp as I squeezed just about all there was out of it, and I didn't take another trade after that.

Such is the case in what is often a "one shot" market.

And so the week ends with three tight performances in a row, providing at least some personal momentum to build on as summer trading hits full speed (or full idle as the case may be).

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Well it was an interesting night in terms of responses to yesterday's announcement, and I'd first like to thank "mostly" everyone for not entering into an anticipated debate over the Jellie rate structure. And while I don't normally filter comments (aside from the existing spam filter for posters who crossed the professional line at one time or another ... as I never see them after the first time), I chose not to post a couple of comments -- both supportive and not -- specifically relating to pricing for reasons I mentioned yesterday.

For the record, 25 people chose to comment (most via email) anyway, with 21 for and 4 against ... with one of the four challenging my record, and one comically accusing me of a Sarah Palin sellout and a general loss of spirituality for charging a fee.

It's funny folks. A few years ago when I stopped my trader development efforts to focus on my own trading and "walk the talk", a small minority said I was a selfish SOB for just thinking about myself. Now that I'm choosing to once again step up similar efforts -- while continuing to trade -- there are a few boos reigning down from the same bleachers.

As a public figure in this industry, I fully recognize and accept both the support and criticism. For I believe if you want to speak up and try to make a difference in this world, you'll have to take some risks and accept the occasional barbs, while realizing you can't please everyone. At this end, I've been floored by the overwhelming positive response, which has cemented my belief that we're on the right track. And if we get derailed a bit during the initial beta launch? We'll assess and adapt to the feedback and conditions. Hey, that's what Jellies do!!

Now a couple of administrative things. First, every one of the 20 Jellies will have complete access to all of the trading statements supporting performance referenced throughout this diary after signing a confidentiality agreement.

Second, for those considering the evening Webinars, they will be recorded and available for viewing by participants if you're unable to attend the live sessions, and I've created a new page on the education site for just that.

Lastly, I'll be spending parts of this weekend considering the selections. Please understand the response has been overwhelming, and that I realize more people will be on the waiting list vs. in the initial "tank". My intention was never to hurt feelings via initial exclusion ... it's simply that I feel a larger group would detract from what we're trying to accomplish. Hopefully, the idea to open the evening Webinar "feeding sessions" to allow all to benefit will help. Keep in mind all "formal" classroom lecture for the Jellies will be done via the Webinars, and that I'm donating a portion of the proceeds to the American Diabetes Association.

I do have some commitments over the weekend, including attending my sister's delayed wedding reception on Sunday, but I'll be pouring over the notes and expect to work through the selection process by the end of next week. Keep in mind per my earlier notes, that per CFTC regulation, it will be best to select a cross-section of participants, so I'll be looking for diverse experience levels and complimentary skill sets.

And please, if you're not selected, keep in mind assuming the beta effort goes well (and the participants will be the ones to decide that, not me), that we'll consider doing this for other teams in the future ... which may even be better as we'll have a chance to assess what worked well and what didn't during this initial beta "swim".

Oh, and I still have to build the tank.

Enjoy the weekend and stay tuned ...

2 comments:

Randy said...

Hey Don,

Here's a quick note to say "Thanks much !" for the last year of this diary. It has been an inspiration to me as I muddle through the newbie phase of this business.

While I have neither the experience nor the wherewithal to participate in the Jellies..... YET ..... I have learned a lot from your daily efforts with this blog. Bits and pieces here and there for trading strategy, and a lot more about the psychology of trading and the effort required to succeed. Again, thanks and best wishes on this coming endeavor.

Randy Williams

mrclark said...

I have a few questions in regards to your entry. I am giving up trying to get the perfect entry and end of getting out right before the trade goes my way because i put on full size to start the trade. When you control risk with size and scratches/re-entries.

1. (example)Say you get short at 88.00 if the trade goes back up to 88.11 and you still really like the trade would you consider adding another short position or do you just wait and add when it becomes a winner?

2. I know you say you have a lot of scratches, but how do you determine whether to scratch the trade or let it play out longer?

Thanks for the blog and sharing your GREAT market insights.