3:40pm ‘Twas in interesting day in that I pressed the accelerator at times and was wrong twice, yet apparently managed sufficiently during the day – making like a chameleon at times to adapt to the changing signals – to somehow still end with an acceptable chip gain.
The two times I pushed were on the mid-morning climb where I shorted the approach toward interim resistance, which paid for only a scalp before busting north, and after 2:30pm where I was sensing a breakout through 850 given the supporting TICK and VIX, not to mention a world of stuck shorts from the morning.
Yet both times, I had to give it up and instead eat off the menu provided. And I’m fairly pleased with how I managed both trades as I’ve been in a pretty decent rhythm lately and had strong convictions about both setups … and it would have been very easy for me not to muck the cards -- a feeling that I felt and had to fight. And it really felt at the time like I was folding pocket Kings when I knew I was beat by pocket Aces. Sometimes, you just have to make that tough laydown. And on another note, this is where trading advisory “horse race callers” can do a world of damage … it’s always about probability and the market should be the only entity ever deserving of an ego, as it and it alone is the only one who’s right all the time. Yet I once again digress.
Nevertheless, here's some therapy for all, including me: Repeat after me … “I was wrong, and I’m wrong several times a day.” At this end I was wrong a lot last year, extremely wrong on one particular day, and have been wrong during portions of every day this year … as I still await my first gross ’09 daily loss before commissions which will happen one of these days. Simply put, it’s not about being right … it’s about making money. Humility can pay big time in this business (which is why "That One Thing" post from City Slickers is one of my favorites and I encourage you to reread it). Ego on the other hand will get you crushed.
The one sequence I really botched was hesitating on fading the noon climb toward 850 on the unsustainable TICK readings. I saw it, but was slightly distracted leading up to it, and by the time I knew it was a high-probability short, my acceptable wholesale entry points had quickly disappeared as the market pulled back and I wasn't going to chase. It's always my price or nothing ... I don't haggle.
Short post tonight as it's poker night and I have to defend my Q1 1st place ranking in our local league (the winner of each quarter gets a buy-in to Foxwoods).
Let's hope I don't run into pocket Aces.