Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Wednesday Notes - Two Left Feet

3:20pm I couldn't get the motor running all day and never could match today's highly illiquid pace with the Jewish Holiday. Started off poorly -- a step too early on every sequence -- before finally matching the pace on the 12pm-1pm climb, then coughed it back up on ES' failure to hold the 1:15pm pullback to 5-min support just before GE's news. (I was fairly heavy and stopped, but would have taken the entry again in a heartbeat as we had both 5 min support and a prior swing high as potential support.) Makes me wonder who knew what when, but that's why this is all about probability.

Got some of it back shorting the subsequent GE halt/news whipsaw, and then got chopped a bit more in the PM.

So the starting fictitious draw for the month becomes real, and I start from behind by about $15K. Not the end of the world certainly, but my early morning performance (reads right on looking for early longs on pullbacks, but couldn't execute crisply) has got the anger engine revved. And for me, that may be a good thing for the rest of the month.

I'll grade today a B for reads and an F for execution, and it may be back to EESM mode for the next few days until I can find my October sea legs.

Momma said there would be days like this. The only two positives I can take from today are (1) positive DAX trades, and (2) the draw could have been a lot worse as I think today was a very difficult pace to trade. I still should have nailed the initial morning sequence though, despite the illiquidity. If you did well, hats off to ya.

2 comments:

Nick said...

Hi Don,

Glad to see you back online. I hope you reach your goal.

I bought your "Trading for a living" tapes back in 2003. Didn't really do much with them until about 7-8 months ago. Still struggling, playing very small lot sizes. Seem to have a good day and then 2 or more drawdowns. I seem to do better on trending days taking pullbacks, but it can be hard to tell what kind of day we're in.

I'm a little curious why you switched from 3 and 13 minute charts to 5 and 15, not that that is a huge change.

Anyway, good luck, and I look forward to reading your blog everyday.

Don Miller said...

Hi Nick -

No big reason for the switch ... perhaps just stretching the timeframe out slightly to get a larger perspective, but I think the key is to get a feel for the trend, which either set of charts will do.

Hang in there.

Don