Tuesday Notes - No Place Like Home?

3:30pm First, thanks to all commenting on yesterday's post, the content of which I believe continues to reflect very favorably on the professionalism of those following this ongoing journey.

Second, yes, I did trade lightly today on the morning-after-trend oscillation setup ... after all, when they're handing out free doughnuts, you might as well grab some, and any overnight or early morning approach toward 895 was shortable given Monday afternoon's brick wall resistance.

Last year, I would have been up at 3am to go after that first approach on the Europe open (for sometimes that first approach is the only approach). Yet as has been my choice this year -- and especially during this week of semi-rest -- I settled for a good night's sleep and instead took the latter opportunities, although that 10:00am - 10:05am whipsaw made it tough to both establish and hold a heavy position to catch more than a scalp.

Yet back to yesterday's comments, I thought one of the more interesting suggestions was from Kareem, who said, "Sometimes the best and biggest thing to do is nothing!" ... which got me thinking and prompted today's diary entry title and photo. I also like the one about resetting the clock ... which btw I've done at times in previous years when my trading has lagged both expectations and capabilities.

Could it be that I should be comfortable in Kansas and that I'm searching for a non-existent Oz?

As an aside, I find it incredibly interesting that both my poker and trading games have been in almost perfect lockstep with each other in terms of (1) both rocking and rolling in 2008 and (2) both similarly affected by the "OK, what now?" syndrome recently that has invited the beasts of complacency and that oh-so-damaging drop in mental focus. The result in both games has been pursuing several marginal "cutesy" forced plays at inopportune times on marginal market hands which has kept me in "make some, lose some" mode, as well as wiping out a great deal of solid play with a single stupid decision. So whatever I do, from a trading perspective I've got to get back to waiting for Jacks or better, and then playing them hard ... every time.

Case in point: During last week's tourney and last gasp at retaking 1st place, I was on my A game and had a great shot to close the gap until I made a huge mistake when I was the big blind with pocket Q's by not raising pre-flop. My thought was that there were five limpers already in ahead of me, and I figured the chances that at least one would call with something like A-K were strong (shouldn't have mattered holding Qs though ... that's why we push), and if I raised, it would have to have been all-in for my tourney life to stop some from simply calling because they were getting pot odds. Frankly, I had no kahunas and there was zero reason not to push. Yet I hesitated.

The flop then came 10-6-4 at which point I tried to immediately correct my first error by taking that time to push all-in, when I got called by someone who was playing his "lucky" 10-6 hand. I'm still pi$$ed at that ... especially my decision not to raise pre-flop.

Come to find out, Mr. 10-6 said later he would have called my all-in (yup ... there are several donkeys in our local tourney games), yet if he did, at least I'd be cursing him and not me.

It's very similar to my trading where my lack of aggression has resulted in taking the second -- and lower probability -- entry that has often gotten "out-flopped" or simply poorly played.

When I'm on my game, I'd bet the Queens ... hard.

When I'm on my game, I'd be up at 3am on the morning after a trend expecting to see Queens.

What's it going to be Don ... how bad do you want to play??