Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Tuesday Notes - Avoiding the Stroller

5:30pm Let me start by saying that I've begun writing today's entry at least four times searching for the right words, so this one had better stick.

Today should have been a disaster for me, and here's at least six reasons why. First, with the Monday U.S. Holiday, it was arguably the first opening day of the week. And you know my record on Mondays. Second, I'll almost always readily take a wholesale fade entry on a significant emotional spike in one direction, before ultimately attempting to align with the immediate trend if market action suggests it's lasting. Such high probability back-to-back sequences have been bread and butter sequences for me over the years. Of course high % price retracements didn't come for hours after the morning moonshot.

Third, like many scalpers, I usually draw down on low-probability monster trend days. Fourth, I've been off my game lately. Fifth, after fretting much of the weekend, I was planning on swinging hard to break out of it today. And finally, the non-trading distractions keep coming as my new night guard (yes, I'm a teeth grinder in my sleep) was ordered wrong, last week's MRI results came in, I learned today I'll need a crown and likely root canal, and to top it off, Grace's engine warning light went on while returning from the dentist.

Umm, God - please remind me to ask you about today when we meet down the road. Is this another test or have I forgotten that keen sense of humor of Yours?

And so as happens from time to time (think Driver's Ed simulation where the baby stroller darts out), it seemed that everything was lined up to make me fail miserably today. Frankly, it should have been one of those days from hell that we'll throw into the fire pit on June 27.

Yet for some reason, an inner circuit breaker kept me even on the day on very light trading.

For it just didn't feel right. Oh, I definitely had a long bias at open, and there will be stories of traders buying and holding the open and making their monthly keep on a single trade which may happen twice a year. And I remained long biased throughout much of the day looking for decent retracements, yet there were few optimal wholesale long entries once the surge began. And I neither chase nor "buy and hold".

I imagine new onlookers to this diary reading only the last few posts are wondering "how the hell has this guy made millions?" Perhaps the answer is sometimes it's avoiding the potential nightmare by staying out of your own way.

So for one day, I guess I did a pretty good job not tripping over myself.

I also avoided the stroller.

A reminder of the upcoming June 27 cookout for all interested.

9 comments:

Sandy said...

That circuit breaker was working for you, nice going....in comparison I did have that "hellacious" day and imploded ...

Circuit breaker does need work.

Sam said...

I almost expected a breakeven or slightly -ve day for you. I was looking for a retracement too and got nothing solid the whole day to go long. My only trade was a short at EOD (I was expecting the usual swoon at the end) from which I was stopped out for a small loss.

I started using your "trend-detector" aka 1min 3LB and it served me very well today and stopped me from fading the trend nearly the whole day.

I guess living to fight another day is today's lesson!

Don Miller said...

Sam -

Excellent point on the 3LB as I was also keeping an eye on it. On trend days, it can be a great caution flag on sucker reversal attempts.

Don

Trader Kevin said...

"I definitely had a long bias at open, and there will be stories of traders buying and holding the open and making their monthly keep on a single trade which may happen twice a year."

I got long just before the opening and held on for more than half an hour--and was still 15 points too early on the exit! Weird.

Going to sit out tomorrow while you take advantage of "day after trend day." Don, here's hoping your Wednesday is dark green!

RexVulgaris said...

Nice avoidance... Missed the opening long under 880, but would have been out by 887 MAX. Todays 1st trade here was not until 3pm.. which has to be a record for me.. whilst somewhat frustrating.. I found myself repeatedly checking myself that I wasnt missing something[and I wasnt] ..in the end I considered it to be a very disciplined day.. Now Wed shud be different

Samuelsson said...

Hi Don,

When you trade the DAX and/or STOXX50. Do you use TICK and VIX on those market as well? If so, where can you get these symbols? I have been looking around but cant seem to find it. Any suggestions?

Thanks for a great blog!

/Sammy

Don Miller said...

Sammy -

All I use overnight is price action, and ES vs. DAX relationships.

Don

James Stollenwerck said...

"Umm, God - please remind me to ask you about today when we meet down the road. Is this another test or have I forgotten that keen sense of humor of Yours?"

My list:

Broken Invisable Fence (dog containment-2 times)
Broken laptop (new screen...not covered by warranty...resolution pending)
Broken Bose Noise Canceling Headset (6 mos. out of warranty)
Broken hearing aid after complete overhaul from a previous failure
Broken a** (hemorrhoids acting up from too much sitting infront of trading screen)
Broken day of the best fishing of the year (saved a guy's life on the reef when his boat swamped and the tide was taking him out to sea)

I too am trying to purge the evil mojo.

TheRumpledOne said...

Thought you were benched?