10:19am ES was a tough read this A.M. as despite the strong net climb yesterday, today wasn't a clear "day after trend" day since ES essentially traded net flat yesterday. Still not in rhythm this week and liquidity-providing trades are clearly unprofitable for the morning (-$11K). On top of that, I've had connection speed issues for the first time in about a year. Sooooo, the early part of the week is now net negative and I now get to trade a 3 1/2 day work week. Joy.
These recent and surprising early morning trading problems are starting to piss the heck out of me since for years, it's been my strongest performance time and I can't put my finger on why I'm hesitating in this "be quick or be dead " market pace.
Will chalk the day up to a draw and simply focus on executing with small sizes going forward. Tightening up the focus and bootstraps.
10:44am OK, got a point on a nice 5-min pullback ... 15 teeny contracts. Good read and execution. P&L completely immaterial now. Day's goal is to get back in rhythm and restore some confidence. Call it mini EESM mode until I get it back.
10:51 Two in a row, this time with 30 contracts buying the TICK extreme.
10:54 Three. Maybe market (or me) finding its footing & rhythm after Sunday's "throw a wrench into last weeks smooth-running BMW engine" news and Monday's bogus market bounce. That's it Don, get mad. Get the blood flowing.
11:00am TICK can't sustain + readings. Monday' pathetic uptrend broken & 5 min in interim downtrend for first time this week. Looking to short any strong retracement and step up size slightly. Want anything near 1255; will start scaling small sizes on approach.
11:14am Four (shorted minor pullback; out on extension)
11:17am Five (bought extreme TICK; out on snapback) Small sizes still.
11:45am Six, seven, eight ... scalped against deeper pullback toward 55 and took sure profits.
12:00pm Wowzer ... wiped out the entire morning draw ... that's frankly hard to believe given the atrocious start. No clue why my mid-to-late morning trading is now better than my open. Interesting looking back at the early morning chart, it was erratic, yet tradable, but like Monday, I was still early suffering from early-entryitis and couldn't get in step. Just need to get my head out of my a$$ I guess.
1:05pm No trades.
1:20pm One teeny liquidity-providing trade for $0.50. Not planning on making any others unless its Kings or Aces. VIX and sub-1260 ES suggests more room on downside though.
1:30pm Purdy ... nailed the pullback to 50.25 ... covers 49.50 to 48.50. If we lose low-of-day, look out. Might get the barf some of us were looking for yesterday (the one I stopped on the final lots around 2pm).
1:34pm Shorted 1248 ... VIX says ES going down. Keeping PM sizes small. Best cover 46.50 and trying yesterday's free-ride again for a low-of-day break.
1:44pm Added high 47s. VIX looking to pop. May need to wait for 2pm volume. Who the heck would buy this market??? Charts looking sick. Need some ACME dynamite for the Coyote.
1:48pm Kaboom ... got 42.50 on some ... sitting at 41.25 for final. Still keeping sizes light ... I just want to stay in rhythm. Gotta love it though when you can't see your average entry price on the DOME.
1:59pm Practicing some patience on a single ES contract ... still holding out for 41.25. More principle than anything. Who says you can't revenge trade??? (Overrated trading myth # 2879 ... more later as we define "revenge".)
2:05pm Be vewwy, vewwy qwwiet.
2:08pm Missed it by two ticks. Good example to recent questions on use of stops -- including trailing stops ... as in it's only one contract! Stop is largely irrelevant to me ... size matters.
2:12pm Market such a tease, came within one tick. Took it out at 43 after it didn't break further. Learned from yesterday's 2pm lesson.
2:17pm Too cruel ... now she blows :-). That was a nasty tease and fake-out. Still, a good read and sequence overall ... was having fun more than anything on that last nugget. Still think we'll get the drop.
Slowing down now ... ES on the fence and clear as mud down here ... overextended short-term but bounce fakes frustrating many dip buyers.
3:34pm Been watching most of this to see if we get a closing trend to set up a truer morning-after-trend open. Couple of small ++ scalps to keep my head in the game but not going to bookend the day with poor sessions. Tomorrow's another day.
4:00pm Cowabunga ... mini-capitulation with volume into the close. Huge futures activity down here.
OK ... Helluva personal intraday $17K turnaround to +$6K. (For newer readers, all $$ quoted on this blog are net of transaction costs ... actual gross gain is higher.) Never thought I'd be so pleased with a such a pittance. Early morning grades: Reads C Executions D-; Rest of day grades: Reads A+ Executions A+ with a bonus for not trying to get cute buying late dips.
Hopefully back in rhythm for the only day that matters ... tomorrow.
Looking forward to it.
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