Wednesday, July 16, 2008

When Profit Does Not Reflect Peformance - Part 2

2:06pm I didn't expect to do a mirrored sequel to yesterday's theme, yet with today's chopfest I feel pretty good about today's slight draw thus far (couple of $000). So again, the P&L doesn't reflect performance. Sort of like folding marginal hand after marginal hand in poker ... nothing to show for it except a modest cost of antes. Waiting for a decent 5-min trend and pace to emerge to provide some foglights in today's pea soup. Not too optimistic about it at the current pace. Volume pathetic today after yesterday's barf-a-thon. Feels like market trying to swim upstream against the current. Let's see how strong a swimmer ES is. Tough finding prime wholesale entry points with minimal risk. Patience.

2:21pm Scalped a whopping 75bp (3350 to 3425) on 15 contracts on tick-to-zero entry in 5 min uptrend. Not trusting this pace at all. Good read, but still want better trigger and pace. Don't get cute Don. Brick wall at 3900 until broken, but tough to short with VIX 15-min downtrend poised for another potential leg down. Battle of the Titans.

2:57pm Pace still sucks. One this is clear ... shorts trying to short the swimming salmon keeping ES afloat. 3900 resistance still holding.

3:08pm Resistance broken by 50bp ... too funny. Sitting and watching.

3:15pm Reminds me of my first few years of trading. I'd be trying to short this market and taking stop after stop. That was then. Waiting for a better starting hand than 3-7 unsuited! May not get it today. Fidgeting with poker chips, that's about it.

3:22pm Scorecard ($2,803) draw and pretty comfortable with overall management today. Kept sizes down and slowed waaaaay down when market wasn't cooperating. Investors win today and tomorrow will be here soon enough. Ironically, the Globex session seemed to have the better pace and entry points with incredible range. Didn't maximize opportunity there, but that's about the only negative on the day.

4:06pm Indicator of the day (ES 1-Min 3 Line Break). Note how even the smallest of trends never turned down in the PM. Great example of this helping clear the fog when the MAs are in a chopfest.


3 comments:

Steve said...

Just like 'Rounders' today...

All night! Check, check, check! He trapped me! He beat me...straight up. Pay him...pay that man his money

Red HUe said...

Don,

SOunds like your entries often come off the $tick action? Do you use trin at all?

I like the poker analogies...!

Don Miller said...

Hi red. I've never used trin. Trend (MAs, 3 Line Break), Momentum (Stochs), and TICK combos work well for me. More than one way to skin a cat though :-).