Posts will resume on Tuesday.
Also, a reminder that you can reigster for Wednesday's free Webinar with the HotComm folks here, where we'll be going over a few of the indicators the Jellies use in the tank.
Monday, August 31, 2009
Saturday, August 29, 2009
The Weekend Trader - Vacation Time Ends
No, I'm not talking about my daughter returning to college or Brett Favre "unretiring" for the third time. I'm instead referencing my heightened sense of motivation and energy level as I gear up for another run ... this time with a few key differences.
So we'll turn to the video today to first welcome new Twitter followers (yet old friends), provide a brief history lesson, discuss "What I did During my Summer Vacation", and most importantly focus on the future for Don & the Jellies.
In addition, as I mention in the video, the HotComm folks that provide our team intraday audio link have asked me to do a free one-hour Webinar this week, which will be held at 5:30pm ET on Wednesday September 2 if you're interested in attending. I'll be reviewing a few of the indicators the Jellies use, and you can access the sign-up link here.
Enjoy the weekend.
So we'll turn to the video today to first welcome new Twitter followers (yet old friends), provide a brief history lesson, discuss "What I did During my Summer Vacation", and most importantly focus on the future for Don & the Jellies.
In addition, as I mention in the video, the HotComm folks that provide our team intraday audio link have asked me to do a free one-hour Webinar this week, which will be held at 5:30pm ET on Wednesday September 2 if you're interested in attending. I'll be reviewing a few of the indicators the Jellies use, and you can access the sign-up link here.
Enjoy the weekend.
Friday, August 28, 2009
Friday Notes - 30 Years
No, I'm not talking about the 30-Year Bond or Yield, rather I'll be heading to my old hometown later today to attend my 30th High School Reunion ... thus the early post. Highlights from yesterday and today in the tank include:
- Needing to immediately shift gears this morning prior to the general U.S. Session open -- due to Intel's supposed "what else is new" increased revenue guidance -- which caused us to forgo the early plan to buy approaches toward 1030 for a retest of overnight highs and replace the plan with short the gap and scalp bounces (since the expected follow-through of yesterday's trend had already occurred). Overall, I thought we adjusted well, but we definitely had to do a quick re-group after the news hit the wires at 9am.
- Recognizing yesterday afternoon's short squeeze was the effect of "stuck" shorts that didn't respect the early morning drop and lame late morning attempted trend follow through who had to scamper for cover. In doing so, I put out a rare "do not short" ban to the team until ES traded to the 1032s. I say rare because all traders trade uniquely, even if sharing the same bias -- which is the Jellie's mission -- yet it was clear based on experience that a squeeze was in the making, despite what I call "sucker" technical signals that feigned weakness on climbs.
- And feeling something "click" inside my head yesterday afternoon as we seemed to get a glimpse of fall market rhythms with strong pace that allowed me to enter longs and add at each tick increment ... in multiple trade sequences as the market moved in very nice rhythm that provided for low-risk additions ... something that's been markedly absent in this one-shot market where most moves are brief, if existent at all. So "buy, buy, buy, sell, sell" was the name of the game yesterday PM which started a cheek-to-cheek market dance that lasted from midday yesterday to noon today and included this morning's textbook DAX 2nd hour morning breakout to new highs. We'll review the DAX sequence in Monday's upcoming Webinar and yes, I was up at 3AM trading Europe as I'm beginning to recommit myself to the discipline and lack of sleep of 2008-Early 2009 as I gear up for the next run. More on that later.
Yet for now, it's off to see buddies I haven't seen for 30 Years. I wonder if any of them trade ... and if they do, I wonder if they're on the other side of my trades.
Depending if I was on my game at the time, that might not be a good thing ... for me or for them.
Depending if I was on my game at the time, that might not be a good thing ... for me or for them.
Thursday, August 27, 2009
Thursday Notes - Poker Night
Poker Night tonight and I'm trying to move from second to first place in this quarter's standings. More later.
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Wednesday Notes - Touchdown Trade
I'll let the attached chart do the talking tonight. Click to enlarge. We had this trade setup teed up in the tank prior to today's open with the idea to take any early approach toward Friday's significant 1020 support level with strengthening confirmation.Tank Morning Briefing Excerpts:
09:08:28 {DonM} I'll be taking longs on any approach toward 1020
09:13:58 {DonM} If you get a 3LB turn on a major support/resistance
09:14:12 {DonM} HOLD at least a small position until 3LB says otherwise
The one-minute Tick Divergence (lower price, stronger TICK) and three-line break confirmation (bottom chart) provided the signals, with the market doing the rest to provide a bountiful opportunity for the morning.
You may also find it interesting that we call the Price vs. TICK Divergence "TD" in the tank for shorthand, which is fitting given our ex-NFL player scored a touchdown on the move!
And the swim continues.
P.S. Don's weight loss update: I'm officially down to 190 from 201 today, which is halfway toward my goal of 180 that I haven't been at for twenty years. For those who have asked, I'm on the Medifast program (this is the 3rd week), which is the same one my wife has used to lose 75 pounds. The bars are extremely convenient, while satisfying my chocolate fix! Plus, swimming in the tank seems to be helping ... along with 20 supportive teammates. Look out Jared!
And the swim continues.
P.S. Don's weight loss update: I'm officially down to 190 from 201 today, which is halfway toward my goal of 180 that I haven't been at for twenty years. For those who have asked, I'm on the Medifast program (this is the 3rd week), which is the same one my wife has used to lose 75 pounds. The bars are extremely convenient, while satisfying my chocolate fix! Plus, swimming in the tank seems to be helping ... along with 20 supportive teammates. Look out Jared!
Monday, August 24, 2009
Monday Notes - Jellie Webinar Tonight
Due to tonight's Jellie lecture (4th of 8), normal posts will resume on Wednesday.
Saturday, August 22, 2009
The Weekend Trader - Guest Jellie Writer #2
As I mentioned in Friday's video, and as was the case in Wednesday's post, the following was authored by one of the Team of 21 Jellies. Enjoy.
"Teamwork & Simplicity"
The great discovery of the 50’s: “You cannot understand the system by the analysis of its parts.” What does this mean? And, what does it have to do with trading?
The idea here is that you can not and will not know what an engine capability is by analyzing the pistons, the rods, the crankshaft ... you get the idea. I would go as far as saying that you would not know what the car can do until you put it all together and run it. You see, a system is all of the parts together, and the system performance only shows up when they all work as designed. “As designed,” means they all work well together, we can pick the best parts from every car in the world, and with the best parts of all the cars in the world we cannot make the best car in the world. Why? Because the best parts from each car in the world are not designed to “work together,” they are designed to work for a particular car.
So what does this have to do with trading? I think everything. As traders we are always looking for the latest and greatest indicator that will “tell us” what to do “at this moment,” or interpret the news event that will shake the market. Since 99% of all indicators are lagging indicators, they are always late in telling us this and we keep searching; in addition, by the time you interpret the news, the market is gone. Indicators are like the “parts” in a car, none of them can tell you what the car can do for mainly one reason, the car is you and fuel for this car is a price chart.
The essence of the Jellies training is exactly that, “what kind of trader am I and what can I do?” Don Miller’s daily drill has been “feel the market,” “feel the pace,” based on this, “have a bias,” then “sense, trust, and act.” I have known this fact, the discovery of the 50’s, for almost my entire previous career, but it hit me like a ton of bricks yesterday. It took Don’s 2 weeks of drilling for me to go through this paradigm shift. I integrate all the data, “garbage in-garbage out.” The more I put in my head the slower I perform. This kind of learning only comes through deep immersion, lots of deprogramming and reprogramming going on. It is intense with moments of emotion only felt because there is commitment all around. I told Don at the beginning, I was committed to this effort and told him the story of the chicken and the pig for breakfast, the chicken contributes, the pig is committed.
Enter Don, as transparent a trader I will ever meet – “what you see is what you get”. If he is having a good day or a bad day, we all know it, because he tells us. He is his worst critic; he makes self-observations that are valuable to me as a trader. I learn from these examples and they help me create a baseline for myself. Don drills, what I mean by “drills”, there is lots of repetition and correction, everyday. For example, “have a bias, but make sure to trade what you see, not what you think;” “the ups and downs, manage them, but stay in the game, you have to be present to win;” “the minute the sequence ends, look for the next one, mentally delete old sequences, only look forward.” The team loves it, because we all know where the bottleneck of the system is – US! So, I am the limiting factor to become a self sufficient trader. I can only get better if I am “coachable,” open minded and receptive to new ways of thinking, AND, if I have enough repetition.
Don is a great believer of simplicity. “Give me a price chart and a TICK chart and I can make money.” I love simplicity, but it is very difficult to achieve, you know why? You have to burn all your crutches, and this makes us insecure. In a 1998 Harvard Business Review interview, Jack Welch said: “For a large organization to be effective, it must be simple. For a large organization to be simple, its people must have self-confidence and intellectual self-assurance. Insecure managers create complexity. You can’t believe how hard it is for people to be simple, how much they fear being simple. The worry that if they are simple, people will think they are simple minded. In reality, of course, it’s just the reverse.” This works for traders as well, just switch the words “large organization” and “Managers” with “trader’ and you have it.
So, as I hit that brick wall yesterday, Don picked me up, shook the dust off and asked me If I was “Okay” – true care by the leader. All the Jellies checked in, “I am not alone.” It allowed me to get past it and think, and through thinking went through a paradigm shift.
What an awesome responsibility, I looked for the keys to the kingdom all over the place, and come to find out, in the trading world, that key is me and my fuel is a price chart. The only way to achieve self-sufficiency is to find the right people to help you; use your intuition about the people you choose and work only with the best.
What an awesome team concept.
Guest Jellie Writer
The great discovery of the 50’s: “You cannot understand the system by the analysis of its parts.” What does this mean? And, what does it have to do with trading?The idea here is that you can not and will not know what an engine capability is by analyzing the pistons, the rods, the crankshaft ... you get the idea. I would go as far as saying that you would not know what the car can do until you put it all together and run it. You see, a system is all of the parts together, and the system performance only shows up when they all work as designed. “As designed,” means they all work well together, we can pick the best parts from every car in the world, and with the best parts of all the cars in the world we cannot make the best car in the world. Why? Because the best parts from each car in the world are not designed to “work together,” they are designed to work for a particular car.
So what does this have to do with trading? I think everything. As traders we are always looking for the latest and greatest indicator that will “tell us” what to do “at this moment,” or interpret the news event that will shake the market. Since 99% of all indicators are lagging indicators, they are always late in telling us this and we keep searching; in addition, by the time you interpret the news, the market is gone. Indicators are like the “parts” in a car, none of them can tell you what the car can do for mainly one reason, the car is you and fuel for this car is a price chart.
The essence of the Jellies training is exactly that, “what kind of trader am I and what can I do?” Don Miller’s daily drill has been “feel the market,” “feel the pace,” based on this, “have a bias,” then “sense, trust, and act.” I have known this fact, the discovery of the 50’s, for almost my entire previous career, but it hit me like a ton of bricks yesterday. It took Don’s 2 weeks of drilling for me to go through this paradigm shift. I integrate all the data, “garbage in-garbage out.” The more I put in my head the slower I perform. This kind of learning only comes through deep immersion, lots of deprogramming and reprogramming going on. It is intense with moments of emotion only felt because there is commitment all around. I told Don at the beginning, I was committed to this effort and told him the story of the chicken and the pig for breakfast, the chicken contributes, the pig is committed.
Enter Don, as transparent a trader I will ever meet – “what you see is what you get”. If he is having a good day or a bad day, we all know it, because he tells us. He is his worst critic; he makes self-observations that are valuable to me as a trader. I learn from these examples and they help me create a baseline for myself. Don drills, what I mean by “drills”, there is lots of repetition and correction, everyday. For example, “have a bias, but make sure to trade what you see, not what you think;” “the ups and downs, manage them, but stay in the game, you have to be present to win;” “the minute the sequence ends, look for the next one, mentally delete old sequences, only look forward.” The team loves it, because we all know where the bottleneck of the system is – US! So, I am the limiting factor to become a self sufficient trader. I can only get better if I am “coachable,” open minded and receptive to new ways of thinking, AND, if I have enough repetition.
Don is a great believer of simplicity. “Give me a price chart and a TICK chart and I can make money.” I love simplicity, but it is very difficult to achieve, you know why? You have to burn all your crutches, and this makes us insecure. In a 1998 Harvard Business Review interview, Jack Welch said: “For a large organization to be effective, it must be simple. For a large organization to be simple, its people must have self-confidence and intellectual self-assurance. Insecure managers create complexity. You can’t believe how hard it is for people to be simple, how much they fear being simple. The worry that if they are simple, people will think they are simple minded. In reality, of course, it’s just the reverse.” This works for traders as well, just switch the words “large organization” and “Managers” with “trader’ and you have it.So, as I hit that brick wall yesterday, Don picked me up, shook the dust off and asked me If I was “Okay” – true care by the leader. All the Jellies checked in, “I am not alone.” It allowed me to get past it and think, and through thinking went through a paradigm shift.
What an awesome responsibility, I looked for the keys to the kingdom all over the place, and come to find out, in the trading world, that key is me and my fuel is a price chart. The only way to achieve self-sufficiency is to find the right people to help you; use your intuition about the people you choose and work only with the best.
What an awesome team concept.
Guest Jellie Writer
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