Friday Notes - Next Hole

4:00pm Short post today as I'm already mentally moving on to Monday with a rather sloppy -$3K chip stack nick largely due to transaction costs as my timing was slightly off from the day's outset.

Much of the ding came from a poor sequence on the noon climb as I (and many others by the look of the charts) leveraged off the 920 approach for a short sequence that I hit into the trap and had to scamper as I was a bit slow in aligning myself with a reverse long on the pullbacks once it was apparent shorts were stuck. And who's to know better than a "stuck short" ... thus the desire to often feel the market's current by swimming in it vs. watching from the shore.

I was also a bit early on buying the morning pullback as it was highly likely that (1) the market wouldn't do the same thing twice in a row in terms of completing giving it up, and (2) stuck shorts from yesterday had to buy any decent retracement, both of which turned out to be correct ... just later in the day.

And so we go from a day where I wasn't too pleased with a decent gain to one where I'm actually "accepting" (there's that word again) of today's slight nick since I made a couple of decent afternoon liquidity trades to cut the day's loss by about 70%. Yet for the week, there's still plenty of room for improvement after a rather placid +$23K performance.

As always, the day's or week's score means squat except in aggregation in 237 days.

There simply continue to be far too many holes left on the '09 course to focus on any one.

We just have to keep swinging.

Look for The Weekend Trader as always.

Thursday Notes - Birdie Putt

5:30pm Continuing yesterday's golf theme, suffice it to say that I had the eagle putt lined up, but pulled up just a smidge and had to settle for a +$14K birdie on the day. Oh, the eagle was there for the taking all right, and I had the day's green read better than I have in a while, yet I hesitated just enough on two "backswings" (undersized a bit on the early gap range break and then got very sloppy on the gimmee short sequence around 2:08pm ET as I seemed to momentarily lose focus) to need the extra putt which capped the day's score.

In both cases, the ultimate move's gains were also capped by the cost of interim insurance scratches and reentries, which reflected a lack of confidence on my part which was likely unwarranted given the powerful high % setups. Sort of like implied odds when making a poker decision.

So overall, I'd grade my reads on the day an A, yet I'd mark my executions and trade management a B-, and would like to have that 2pm sequence back again (thus the yellow mark under "No Regrets").

Which brings me to an excellent dialogue in last night's comments. And while I don't normally repeat comments and responses in the main posts (no sense wasting virtual ink), I thought this particular question (thanks Sam) and my response might help reinforce how I try to approach this biz day in and day out.

Comment: Been reading your blog since early '09, so I know your trading style. Here's what I don't get: No matter how motivated you are, how do you expect to hit home runs when the market doesn't support your style of trading? You look for pullbacks and emotional extremes but we have quietened down since last year (look at the VIX!) and the market seems weird and sluggish and not at all conducive. So no matter how much you will yourself or berate your trading, the market doesn't seem to support it. Do you not see this? P.S All of the above was not meant to be criticism, just some feedback. I have nothing but respect for your trading.

My Response (excerpts): Great comments (you know me via the blog all too well) ... and yes, I undoubtedly see the changes you describe as was the case in many prior years. Yet while I don't expect home runs, I do expect doubles and an occasional triple regardless of action (we're traders and have to adapt), and feel the difference between the singles I'm hitting and the absent extra-base hits is largely a function of complacency.

Having said all that, a good part of the "berating" is frankly an intentional psychological ploy at this end to try to maintain an edge. It's simply who I am and my way of trying to stay driven to achieve peak performance. Great dialogue and it got me thinking.

It's the last paragraph I want to emphasize. For regardless of a day's outcome, I'll never be completely satisfied with my performance. Never. Ever. Accepting? At times, yes, which is why I often use the "acceptable gain" or "acceptable loss" reference. But satisfied? It simply ain't gonna happen, as there's always room for improvement and is what attracts me to this crazy business where imperfection will always reign.

Remember I attempt to trade every day as if yesterday was a horror show and I'm on the comeback trail. As I said last night, it's simply how I'm wired, is what drives me, and usually (not always) keeps me out of big trouble. Simply put, I play best when really pi$$ed off. And the better the day, the more I try to get really angry over one aspect that didn't go well.

As I've said before, most of my embedded memories of last year's bonanza are the missed shots, broken clubs, and shanks into the woods. And aside from two days (when we set the '08 trailing stop and then danced on 12/31), it was all and only about improving performance and completing the race.

Similarly, the two mistakes today were two too many and need to be corrected.

We're not playing tiddly winks out there, and we're not looking to be average -- or even above average.

We're after extraordinary. We're after what most won't or can't do.

We're after the Million.

Again.

Poker night tonight and I've moved up to second place in the Q2 tourney as the result of last week's win. Got more work to do there as well as I'm not after second.

Wednesday Notes - Par For the Course

4:00pm While we still have a looooooong way to go in this 2009 race, suffice it to say should I indeed achieve the feat of back-to-back $1M years, I may personally rank such an accomplishment this year higher than last year's +$1.6M in terms of challenge for a number of reasons I've hinted at this year in terms of motivation & drive, reduction of hours staring at the screen (all but cutting out 3am-7am Europe), etc.

And today was a repeat theme of recent weeks in terms of sub-optimizing opportunities a bit (despite a decent pace and range) and banking another sub-five figure day ... +$6K in today's case ... which is really starting to gnaw at me as I need to start sprinkling in a few decent darker green scores soon. Sort of like shooting par after par on the course where you have to sprinkle in birdies and eagles to more than offset the occasional expected bogeys and double-bogeys.

And so despite the April mental respite, we enter May thus far with more of the same uninspiring "sleepwalking" performances that have typified far too much of '09 at this end.

Note to onlookers: If you think you're tired of hearing this, think about how I feel writing and living it!

So I have to continue to decide whether I want to be the pre-2009 Tiger or 2009 version who's still working the kinks out.

Pars won't cut it.

Tuesday Notes - Catch of the Day

5:30pm One of the aspects of this year's market I'm still adjusting to is the pace that provides (in my view) fewer high probability trade sequence opportunities. It's not that they're not there ... they are ... it's just that the lower volatility has decreased the amount of in-out sequences as the trade is much "thicker" in current times than in the past, while also spending a great deal of time in midday consolidation. Remember when we didn't dare leave our station last year and skipped lunch 90% of the time?

Perhaps the best analogy is the market is acting more as a battleship in terms of frequency and pace of turns vs. a speedboat. So for those of us who like to "surf" multiple intraday waves, the ocean is simply calmer and you have to nail those few that decide to show up.

Such was the case today as we had our typical morning-after-trend setups that chalked up a respectable +$7K chip gain at this end by buying anything approaching Monday's rock solid supporting consolidation range (either in the overnight or early AM session), yet once those sequences played out, there was little else. I say that because I can't remember the last time we had the morning-after-trend backdrop where I didn't take a single trade on the contra-trend side. Usually on days like this, it goes something like "trend sequence, contra-trend sequence, repeat". Yet today, my only trade entries were longs as I was waiting for at least some extension beyond Monday's late day high to short, and we never got it. I don't believe that's happened in a few years.

Today also reminded me of how 2009 is different from 2008 in terms of my personal commitment and desire to live a more "normal" life. Specifically, last year I would have gotten about 2-4 hours sleep as I positioned for the first ES retracement around the Europe open at 3am ET, which would have been good for a few $K. This year, I've decided to sleep more normal hours and thus had to settle for the later Europe and U.S. pullbacks.

And so as always, we continue to eat off the menu provided while trying not to complain too much about the food offered. Those that trade multiple markets can of course "change restaurants" by shifting focus during times like this to currencies, commodities, and other markets. Those like me who choose to specialize in one market have to adapt to conditions and simply "eat" the catch of the day.

Yet even if the tide is low, there's usually some good crab lying around.

We'll see what the surf brings tomorrow.

btw, a continued welcome to new onlookers. Based on recent comments and emails, it's clear we're continuing to build a community of professional traders interested in supporting each other and staying away from the industry B.S. Let's keep on keeping on!

Monday Notes - Sniper Market

5:30pm I'll call today's trade a sniper market as in hindsight I see only four clear shots to get in on the uptrend at high probability wholesale prices, with two coming during times when I don't care to be in the market (10am economic news & at the very end of the session). And while I traded the other two midday pullbacks to supports well, I was a bit undersized given my conviction and also got nicked some in the PM session probing continuations earlier than 3:50pm ET (that was cruel).

The result was a very modest +$3K gain on a day that reflected more good than bad, but enough bad to significantly cap the day's take. Like many, I was looking to load up on a deeper early PM pullback that never materialized beyond the lunchtime chop.

Not the best start to the month to say the least, but I'm quickly putting it behind me and moving on.

And I hope the Bruins can do the same. Great game last night and an outstanding luxury suite box, but the Bs forgot to show up.

** VIDEO ** Let's Play Two

Too much to fit into one video, so "let's play two".

Topics include keeping April and the blog in perspective, staying focused & motivated, shutting out potentially harmful industry press & noise, the importance of being an individual, the loneliness of trading, recent requests to resurrect formal teaching (no) & writing a book (no), a quick health update, and an update on the upcoming live get-together.

At the risk of stating the obvious, start with the top one. And perhaps grab a cup of coffee.

Enjoy.

Friday Notes - April 31st?

3:30pm Who says April only has 30 days? Just like the Bulls-Celtics refused to let Game 6 end, ES just had to let April continue for one more day with a session of rather listless trading as it seemed to take the cue from the Eurex exchange which was closed today for its annual May Day respite.

As I mentioned yesterday, I viewed today as a mulligan in terms of trade interest given that Europe was closed and I normally take Friday light anyway, and so Monday will begin the first test to see if the market and I want to begin the dance in earnest. Yet at least I didn't force any issues today and head into the weekend in a decent frame of mind.

The good news is I put a strong performance in last night to take 1st on our weekly poker tournament, with solid focus throughout the five hour session. Frankly, it was some of the most solid tournament poker I've played in while in terms of good decision making, with patience coming into play during heads-up play when I went from chip lead to major short-stack as the result of laydown after laydown, before finally putting it away with three strong closing plays.

Still, my preference remains cash games as I continue to find most players don't trade well when their real capital is constantly at risk, which of course result in the continuing parallels to trading. Nevertheless, the local tourneys are still nice get-togethers with the locals.

Even better news is I secured a couple seats in one of the Garden's luxury suites for Sunday night's Bruins-Canes playoff game, and will be treating my poker tutor to all the fixings. He'll never fully understand what he did for my trading mindset that has literally been worth millions to me, and so it's the least I can do.

Now if I could only find seats for the Celts-Bulls Armageddon on Saturday. Methinks the Bulls will pull it off as it's pretty clear that the Celts can't play championship caliber defense without KG.

Rest up gang. May starts in earnest on Monday.