tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-709390629316238746.post5638440782043491688..comments2023-04-16T05:11:52.660-04:00Comments on Don Miller Trading Journal: The Weekend Trader (Sunday Edition)Don Millerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13263493919935087931noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-709390629316238746.post-67368808517498930392009-04-06T19:40:00.000-04:002009-04-06T19:40:00.000-04:00On the fifth hand, I had Pocket Qs in the big blin...<I>On the fifth hand, I had Pocket Qs in the big blind, raised pre-flop, and got one caller who had about $200 in his stack.</I><BR/><BR/>I have a hard time faulting your play. You (correctly) raised pre-flop and then raised again after a good flop for you. If you raise the turn and the guy comes over the top, you're probably pot-committed with an overpair and get the same result. <BR/><BR/>But how do you get away from his turn shove after you checked? He could just as easily have been trying to buy the pot with eights, nines, Jacks, or some kind of Ace. (I've seen some really goofy holdings online and I understand the live players are even worse.) You are giving away too much EV if you routinely fold Queens in that situation.<BR/><BR/>It's impossible to believe he had a player-specific read on you after just five hands. The key is in your post-hand analysis. Specifically "When the flop came out, the opinion [that I had a high pair or AK] would have grown even stronger since I bet again post-flop, feeling confident with an overpair and trying to buy the pot right there instead of risking Mr. Caller tripping up on me (<I><B>leading to his conclusion that I didn't likely have trips myself</B></I>)."<BR/><BR/>This is why I almost always bet flopped sets and trips. (As a point of clarification, a pocket pair and one on the board is a set. A pair on the board and one in your hand is trips.) It's too easy to be read as trapping with a set if you check the flop and raise the turn after raising pre-flop. And if you get a chance to show down a set after betting pre-flop and post-flop...well, you really put the fear of God into your opponents, because most of them won't play it that strongly. His read was based on your being a typical player regarding flopped sets. So don't be a typical player! [Soapbox mode = off]<BR/><BR/>Let's talk about his pre-flop play. What in the wide world of sports was he doing pre-flop??? You were the first raiser out of the BB, meaning he called (probably with several others) pre-flop. If you just call instead of raising with your Queens, now he's going up against 3-5 other hands, depending on how loose the game is. With that many opponents there are too many ways for him to get beat if there isn't an Ace on the board.<BR/><BR/>As I noted, your pre-flop raise was correct. Try to isolate a middle pair or some kind of Ace (just not AA!) while creating a bunch of dead money in the pot.<BR/><BR/>I think you pretty much played the hand correctly, given that you can't really have a read on him after just five hands. His play was absolutely awful. This is a classic case of needing to judge the process, not the results.Trader Kevinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03826070966823094363noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-709390629316238746.post-66756066723528349312008-08-26T14:44:00.000-04:002008-08-26T14:44:00.000-04:00Hi, Don and Johan,Johan said:“But the swings are n...Hi, Don and Johan,<BR/><BR/>Johan said:<BR/>“But the swings are not so low for your $1/$2 game either. You actually need a bank roll dedicated for poker of $20.000-$40.000!!! Of course, most people don't know or even understand that. ….So, don't think of going up a level quite yet.”<BR/><BR/>Excellent point. <BR/><BR/>In order for your thoughts to be absorbed by the action, and maintain emotional consistency, you obviously need a clearly defined system. Your money management system and your strategy comprise that system. In my view, defining and testing your approach is 90% of the game. The rest naturally follows from practice and continual drilling of the basics.<BR/><BR/>Thanks Don for inspiring me to write the 'pain of losing' and striving to make it ever more clearer.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-709390629316238746.post-15790419816973759662008-08-25T21:36:00.000-04:002008-08-25T21:36:00.000-04:00Good stuff Johan.I suppose luck -- even in trading...Good stuff Johan.<BR/><BR/>I suppose luck -- even in trading -- is mostly applicable in the short run. Of course skilled players/traders seem to create their own "luck" more times than naught.<BR/><BR/>Can certainly relate to the bankroll issue ... of course, I barely have a toe in the poker pool, never mind a foot. If only I was that cautious when I first started trading :-).<BR/><BR/>DonDon Millerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13263493919935087931noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-709390629316238746.post-16210993175928591582008-08-25T16:48:00.000-04:002008-08-25T16:48:00.000-04:00"true poker" that doesn't involve escalating blind...<I>"true poker" that doesn't involve escalating blinds which invites a much higher degree of luck -- one reason why tournaments are often dominated by amateurs.</I><BR/><BR/>Well you actually need to be a better player to do well in tournaments in the long run than in cash games. Tournaments are a much more difficult games than cash games. In tournaments you have the initial low-blinds (cash game) play and than <I>also</I> the high blinds game. And you have to master both to succeed in the long run. Much more so than in low stake cash games which is a no-brainer if you are able to follow a poker 101 textbook.<BR/><BR/>Of course the up and down swings in tourneys are much higher, which in the short run leave more space for luck.<BR/><BR/>But the swings are not so low for your $1/$2 game either. You actually need a bank roll dedicated for poker of $20.000-$40.000!!! Of course, most people don't know or even understand that. <BR/><BR/>So, don't think of going up a level quite yet.<BR/><BR/>Thanks for sharing your stories!Johan Lindénhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07530784419183726575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-709390629316238746.post-48089410995063550652008-08-20T06:49:00.000-04:002008-08-20T06:49:00.000-04:00Hi Aman.Extremely well said ... strong and useful ...Hi Aman.<BR/><BR/>Extremely well said ... strong and useful words. Perhaps the greatest challenge with my starting fictitious draw approach is to really "feel" that pain of loss and keep it ever-present. Some days I seem to be able to channel that feeling better than others, and it does indeed occasionally take that real hit, either from an initial beginning-of-day trade loss (which could simply be opportunity loss resulting from a trade not taken) or a very poor prior-day performing day to make that feeling come alive again.<BR/><BR/>As I said in my early July posts, learning and trying to channel what you describe has done far more for my overall understanding of long-term success in this industry than any other aspect of trading. Too bad it took me about a decade of personal soul-searching and results analysis to find that out.<BR/><BR/>On the poker front, card playing has also no doubt helped me see my trading faults more clearly ... as I mentioned in my July 6 post. As you said, the inner game is very much the same ... and I'll likely be working on improving both as long as there's air to breathe.<BR/><BR/>DonDon Millerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13263493919935087931noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-709390629316238746.post-24886595632499926942008-08-20T01:30:00.000-04:002008-08-20T01:30:00.000-04:00There is something fascinating about the pain of l...There is something fascinating about the pain of losing. I myself don't play my best if the pain of losing is still not there. It's what makes me tick. Even though it may sound like bad advice you may find you play better at a slightly higher level where the game is big enough that there is enough pain when things go wrong and a lot of pleasure when things go right. That way you don't have to look for that pain by losing initially. Why the need for pain? Because, when your thoughts are "absorbed" by the action the "I" disappears, you're alert and present. I feel, like most animals, we need pain to do that- to zone in. <BR/><BR/>p.s. I'm also a semi pro poker player in Vegas and a full time trader. I feel the difference between poker and trading is only superficial. The inner game is the same.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-709390629316238746.post-81641046930458422392008-08-19T12:33:00.000-04:002008-08-19T12:33:00.000-04:00Dongreat analysis.hope i do not get to meet you at...Don<BR/>great analysis.<BR/>hope i do not get to meet you at a poker table!<BR/><BR/>keep on sharing your mind with us.<BR/>my poker game will certainly gain.<BR/><BR/>cheers<BR/>Dougdoughttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07030142513422968539noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-709390629316238746.post-49483329356381032162008-08-18T07:37:00.000-04:002008-08-18T07:37:00.000-04:00Hello old friend.Good to hear from you :-). Hope ...Hello old friend.<BR/><BR/>Good to hear from you :-). Hope all is well and that life is blessing you in whatever you're pursuing.<BR/><BR/>Stay well.<BR/><BR/>DonDon Millerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13263493919935087931noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-709390629316238746.post-83201786308283530312008-08-18T03:44:00.000-04:002008-08-18T03:44:00.000-04:00Hi Don,this is TPD -:)time flys and its been almos...Hi Don,<BR/><BR/>this is TPD -:)<BR/><BR/>time flys and its been almost 5 years since we last spoke.<BR/><BR/>Good to see how your career has progressed. I spent the last 5 years in the corporate world...and will be exiting in September.<BR/><BR/>Nice to see that the methods and set-ups are still intact and as you say "its all between the ears"<BR/><BR/>Would like to catch up with you whenever you have the time.<BR/><BR/>Best regards,<BR/>Thomas (Munich, Germany)tpdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08930786232352313992noreply@blogger.com