Don Miller Trading Journal

We've Moved!

2010-07-12T17:33:00.003-04:00

A reminder that we've moved to the new and expanded "Don Miller Trading Tank" site at donmillerblog.com:

IMPORTANT NOTICE - Old and New Bookmarks

2010-07-10T20:00:00.000-04:00

Please note that as of July 9, 2010, all new content will appear on our new site at donmillerblog.com.

This content will remain accessible in its entirety on this site, which you can bookmark via the root address of http://donmillerjournal.blogspot.com/.

Yet the new site will also contain links back to here, as well as direct links to some of the key posts.

Thanks.

Breaking Blog News

2010-07-09T21:22:00.005-04:00

A funny thing happened on the way to indexing the old blog ...

... click here to find out and make sure to change your bookmarks to donmillerblog.com.

Update - Blog Preservation & New Innovations

2010-07-09T10:39:00.006-04:00

Friends -

In the spirit of balancing preserving the history of this two-year diary with moving forward, I'm in the process (when I'm not trading) of creating a new & expanded site on a different platform that will host the best of the old, as well as some new innovations designed to continue to support and motivate traders of all types across the world.

The site will use WordPress (my new toy during non trading times so I can SOOT) which will allow for much more than I could do here, and is currently under development, but since I tend to move quickly I'm hoping to have a Weekend Trader post -- which I plan on continuing -- up sometime over the weekend.

So look for new formats & themes as we move ahead.

And keep the suggestions coming as we look to continue to strengthen traders in every way possible.

Don

Update - Stay Tuned ...

2010-07-08T16:06:00.000-04:00

... for details about a new journey.

Journal Epilogue - You Have The Power

2010-07-04T22:40:00.014-04:00

Please note the following epilogue marks an end to the current phase of this journal, as well as a new yet-to-be-defined beginning as I take an indefinite hiatus from public journaling to simply trade my private fund and consider the future. Stay tuned via both the blog and twitter.

As traders, we search.

We first search for knowledge. An in-depth knowledge of our craft so we can provide a market service, extracting profits to sustain ourselves in the process.

Along the way, once the knowledge is obtained, the search often shifts to that of heart and courage as we face constant challenges -- both internal and external -- that are thrust upon us on a daily basis.

Yet we're all searching for that elusive, magical place. That place that can instantly provide the knowledge, heart, and courage which we lack. That place where all of the market challenges have been overcome and are finally behind us once and for all. That place where our career dreams are fully realized, and pain is no more.

And during our search, we stumble across an abundance of "wizards" who we're told can provide everything for which we're searching.

Yet with due respect to Jack Schwager, there's no such thing as a wizard (guides, yes ... wizards, no), just as there aren't any instant cures for those who lack knowledge, heart, or courage.

For time after time, we realize that such people are -- at best, simply on the same journey we are -- and at worst, hiding behind a curtain pulling levers and pushing buttons that merely results in a grand illusion.

Then we realize -- usually to our surprise -- that the journey never ends. Instead, the road (yellow perhaps) simply winds and twists as we encounter new places and challenges.

# # #

Over the last two years, I felt called to essentially remind those on a similar journey to mine -- through this diary and the more formal Jellie education -- that we're all on the same journey, and that the true answers lie within each of us.

You have the power within you.

You always have.

I simply reminded you in as many ways as I could think of -- through personal experiences, videos, sports and movie anologies, parables, formal education, and personal interaction.

726 times.

May the classic words of L. Frank Baum (please click on the link as I couldn't embed the video due to copyright restrictions ... and particularly take note of seconds 30-50), and all the words of this journal over the last two years guide all who venture upon these pages ... now and forevermore.

And may God grant us all the strength on our respective inner journeys.

'Til we meet again.

The Weekend Trader - Update To Friday's Video

2010-07-03T14:27:00.008-04:00

7/4 Update - I added the dates for the final 2010 Jellie Training session at the bottom.

Wowzer in terms of awaking to a flood of emails in response to Friday's video.

While I wasn't going to post again this weekend, it's easier for me to respond once via the blog vs. answering dozens of emails (and it's only 2pm on Saturday).

First, thanks for the tremendous outpouring of support for past efforts. And while "thanks" doesn't do it justice, it's the only word I can think of for now.

And as I consider the future over the coming days, please remember that every book has a final chapter, and this two-year journal reflects a virtual "book" of 725 pages which can be bookmarked and referenced over and over again ... more than any book in my entire library.

If either of my kids took up trading, I'd essentially provide them the blog and Jellie Webinars, and ask them to make sure they read every post in the key post list in the lower left-hand margin.

I'd also tell them that "new" material isn't always necessary, which is why many of the classic books remain ... well, classic ... although markets certainly change from time to time. I also personally dislike producing "re-run" material, which is sort of like reinventing the wheel when you can instead simply point people to the pile of wheels in the corner. And many times, I frankly just feel like driving the car with the wind in my hair -- which takes energy not consumed by building wheels!

Regardless of what form this journal takes on July 5th and beyond, this living document and its spirit of the last two years will remain available, as will -- at least for now -- access to the Jellie Webinars which remain the most comprehensive educational product I'll likely ever produce. And yes, I'm still planning to run one final live multi-week event in the fall of 2010 (Dates now set for 9/7-10/1), but you'll need to let me know quickly.

I'll update plans over the coming days ... so stay tuned.

In the meantime, thanks :-)

Special Post - The End of a Road?

2010-07-02T22:13:00.001-04:00

Some roads are meant to end, some lead to others, and some simply continue in a perpetual loop.

The next few days will determine which road this journal takes.

Have a safe, relaxing, and joyous holiday weekend.

Thursday Notes - Poker Night

2010-07-01T15:03:00.003-04:00

Back at it on Friday before some well-deserved R&R over the long weekend.

Scratch day today as I wasn't particularly focused and the energy level was extremely low after a rough night's sleep with the sore tooth, but technically the daily streak ends after almost a full month.

So it's 30 steps forward, 1 step backward -- or more accurately, sideways -- as I wait to ramp up the trading after the Holiday weekend.

Wednesday PM Notes - Grinding It Out

2010-06-30T22:54:00.005-04:00

Here's a quick late night video follow-up to today's earlier post discussing my strong views of needing to "grind out" trading profits (as opposed to your teeth) to use as the only source to replenish trading losses.

It's been one of the parmount reasons I've been able to stay in the game and prevent any hint of a death spiral which has sabotaged so many traders.

As for the short-term trade-off in terms of immediate profits as the result of reduced size?

Well, I'll take "Trading for the Long Term" for $1,000 Alex.

At this end, history has shown that such a choice always results in the Daily Double.

Wednesday Notes - A Crowning Achievement

2010-06-30T13:45:00.015-04:00

First, please forgive me for the post title pun, as I've closed up trading shop early on this textbook MATD to spend 90 joyous (not) minutes in the dentist chair so one of my chipped molars can get prepped for a gold crown.

Don't you love how dentists call grinding a tooth down to its stub "prepped"? I call it torture.

Yet in a way, perhaps the title is fitting in that I've continued to catch a bit of a tailwind with my trading as the summer rhythms have been rather kind in terms of opportunity ... leaving our job to simply not throwing up all over ourselves in the process (great visual, huh?)

And while this month was far from my best in terms of profitability as I purposely cut my sizes back, I'll argue that it may have been one of the satisfying "grinding" months ever given that it was -- by far -- one of the most critical months of my career.

This is because for the first time in my "post-figured-this business-out" career, I was doubting whether I still had the (A) tenacity and (B) desire to not only fully recover from the events of May 6 hit and get my capital back above my critical career trailing stop (as I said recently, below which it had never dropped), but to re-establish the necessary blend of consistency and confidence -- the former breeding the latter -- to plant the seeds for recapturing what I'll call a championship caliber performance level ... and on a sustained basis.

Simply put, I can't overestimate the importance of this month at this end.

So I tweaked a few things:

- Reduced sizes (at the same time proving you can run a nice store with modest sizes).
- Reduced # of trade sequences (to levels where my broker was wondering where I was).
- Barely traded the Europe markets (although I of course traded ES during those times).
- Made consistency my highest short-term priority (thus the temporary blog counters).
- Often narrated non-stop in the Jellie room while trading so I wouldn't lose focus.
- Ramped up supplement program (to help this 49-year old brain feel like 25).

The net result is that which you see in the top left corner counter, and a month that ended with a strong 30-to-1 ES win/draw dollar ratio. Yea, I know, shades of the multi-month ratios in the '04, '07, '08, and '09 zones.

btw, note I added a counter for # of days since > 0.5% loss, which is far more meaningful than the more silly "no loss" streak which will come and go ... and should "go" from time to time else I be trading on eggshells and not focused on net profit over time.

Perhaps the following exchange of brief emails between Pat Lafferty -- my broker at MF Global since '03 --and me from today sums everything up best.

Don: FYI, look for my volume to start picking up again after the 4th. I've been in conservative mode lately to work my ass off and get back above the pre-flash crash level ... which is now done.

Pat: I saw. That’s good news. I never doubted.

Truth be known, for a brief moment, I doubted.

Not the skill or methods --- those will always be there long after I'm gone -- but the desire.

Oh Ye of little faith.

And the journey continues ...

Tuesday AM Notes - Maybe It's My Fault

2010-06-29T07:05:00.011-04:00

Here are two outstanding motivational videos as provided by onlookers:

In the first one, Michael Jordan summarizes EXACTLY what I've been trying to say to the trading community for more than a decade, and especially during the last two years of blogging. This would be such a great final post ... so very, very tempting :-).

Please listen to -- and digest -- every single word ... especially the part about failure & pain.

This second one (about 10 minutes long) discusses what truly motivates us, using an MIT study as its basis:

Monday Notes - Synchronized Swimming

2010-06-28T12:30:00.005-04:00

OK, let's recap this morning's PJO (Prime Jellie Opportunity) ... once again using the Jellie tank transcript (click to enlarge). This time, I left the Jellie comments in tact (hiding the names for confidentiality) to reinforce the benefit of multiple "team" eyes.

Sharp focus, a single market (do people still trade multiple markets????), one setup, stalking one sniper shot, multiple eyes, & everyone swimming together.

As it should be.

P.S. I may do this from time to time as time and focus permit ... and will be sure to include losers as well.

The Weekend Trader Part 3 - The Consistency Counter

2010-06-27T16:31:00.008-04:00

I thought I'd put the upper left hand blog counter in perspective as to its intent, objective, risks, etc.

As I mention in the video, I'm considering it a summer game of sorts to help maintain current momentum and keep sloppiness from creeping in.

Further, here are some tips on keeping current personal momentum going:

Try to identify what you're doing right.
After all, something is clearly working & you'll need to duplicate it.

Don't listen to anyone else or let them get you off your game.
Keep in mind most traders lose and misery loves company. Make them do it solo, and remember that they're the speculator and you're the casino.

View the "pre-momentum period" as if it never happened.
You think Kobe or Tiger ever believed they missed a shot when taking the next one?

The Weekend Trader Part 2 - Viewer's Choices

2010-06-27T07:49:00.019-04:00

As this journal reaches its second birthday, and both traffic (+20% in last month per Alexa.com) and twitter (twitter.com/millerdon followers at 600+) are once again spiking, I thought it would be helpful to provide a snapshot of the top onlooker visited posts as ranked by Google Analytics (which excludes my personal visits).

All-Time:

#1 - Cornerstone - The 7/4/08 "fictitious drawdown" light bulb post that was one of the main reasons I launched the blog, and which became a central theme of my trading during the record 08-09 runs. By far, this is the most often referenced link, outpacing #2 by about 4-1.

#2 - Chinese Bamboo Tree - One of the most powerful concepts I've been exposed to in my 49 years, which has had a profound impact on me in recent years. It's also incredibly listed #5 in the world if you Google "Chinese Bamboo Tree".

#3 - A Night to Dance - The 2008 Year-End post which was always designed more to motivate others than tout my personal victory. And yes, I visit it on occasion when I need that confidence boost.

#4 - CME Pricing Thoughts - An analysis restating 2008 results for non-CME member rates. See below for a better and more up-to-date analysis.

#5 - 2008 Statistics - A rare in-depth look into a professional trader's detailed trading stats for a full year. Likely the only time you'll see such a public analysis due to confidentiality and industry mis-use.

Top 2010 (If Not Included Above):

#1 - MoneyShow Interviews - Links for the four MoneyShow.com interviews I gave just before speaking at this year's NY Trader Expo.

#2 - E-Mini Commission Analysis - An in-depth analysis I did to compare various trader commission alternatives verified by MF Global and the CME. To my knowledge, the only place you'll find such an analysis on the web, so take advantage of my legwork to avoid having to do your own.

#3 - Replay of 2010 NY Expo Presentation - A Livestream replay of pertinent portions of the Feb 2010 presentation to a packed house in NY.

#4 - There's No Crying in Trading - Personal perspectives and bruises immediately after the 5/6 flash crash. Also the #1 ranked video and most accessed day of the year.

#5 - Keys to the Castle - Critical lessons from the inaugural Jellie team participants. A must-read due to (1) my personal conviction, and (2) as stated by the flood of emails I received.

And a reminder that a list of key posts which I believe should be of particular note for all traders can be found in the lower left-hand margin.

If you're new to this site, welcome.

If you've been with us since we started, remember that repetition can be a good thing.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend.

The Weekend Trader Part 1 - Time to Sling It

2010-06-26T08:29:00.007-04:00

It was February 3, 2002.

There was 1:21 left on the clock, the game was tied, the underdog team with the rookie quarterback named "Brady" had the ball on their own 17 year line, and the NFL championship was on the line.

Everyone expected Brady to play conservatively and not make a costly error deep in his territory so they could take their chances in overtime.

Even "expert" commentator John Madden told the viewing millions that he should simply play it safe and run out the clock.

We all know the how the story ended, as Tom Brady quarterbacked one of the greatest Super Bowl drives ever to win Super Bowl XXXVI.

What some may not know, is the advice that Drew Bledsoe (for whom Tom had taken over during the season after a devastating injury) gave Tom on the sidelines just before beginning that drive.

He told Tom to "go out there and sling it".

Now while there are conflicting versions of the story -- including a more "colorful" version in terms of vocabulary and another one that suggested Drew was just kidding -- there can be no doubt that Drew was telling Tom to simply stay loose and execute.

Fast forward to June 26, 2010, and I need to heed the same advice.

For as I get ready to close Q2 and wipe the slate clean once again, the record shows that the last two quarters have been one of my more "interesting" stretches in terms of trying to effectively balance capital conservation and growth. It's a challenge that for obvious reasons comes later in one's trading career for those that have figured out this game.

For there are many phases in one's trading career, beginning with the huge learning curve and capital draining period that all must go through, yet few get past. Then, for the minority who do indeed weather the initial storm, one enters the fairly consistent phase where it's all about capital growth ... which at times will be rampant.

And then there's the later stage, where capital preservation becomes as important, if not more so, than growth. We'll call that the "Don" phase.

It's a phase that has done in many successful traders, including -- as I mentioned the other day -- possibly even Jesse Livermore, who was rumored to have lost it all after having been the focal point for what is considered one of the greatest trading books ever published, "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator".

btw, I completely disagree on his comment about not focusing on the small gains, yet this was printed well before market liquidity and full electronic access was as it is today ... but that's a topic for another time.

Those who have followed my journey well before this blog was introduced -- going back to the late 1990s -- can likely see such progression in my writings over the years as I first spoke out very publicly about the huge initial learning and capital draining periods that I'd experienced (in part to again try to offset the ridiculous hype and scams prevalent at that time), to focusing on the simple methods that allow for capital growth (TradingMarkets days) that I still use to this day, to periods of personal parabolic equity growth, to the current phase of needing to balance preservation and growth.

And while I recognize many onlookers -- perhaps the majority of them -- are working through one of the first two phases, well ... I'm simply at where I'm at.

They say you learn something every year in this business, and this year has taught me that while you'll face "different" challenges later in your trading career, they're every bit as challenging as those which you first encountered in those early days of frustration and sleepless nights.

Now I recognize that balancing growth with capital preservation is an issue at every stage in one's trading career. It's just that their weightings shift as you age and plan for retirement ... just as they would with any effective portfolio management strategy as one ages.

And I've found that effectively balancing the two has been one of my toughest challenges ever.

For what began as the self-described "Year of the Iceberg" became at times "Year of the Ice Cube" as I too often alternated using the accelerator and brake as I tried to find the right mix.

Our former NFL quaterback Jellie (still with us btw and showing some solid consistency) refers to it as playing "not to get injured" ... which as he states, is simply the best way to get injured.

Yet too many times, I found myself overusing the brakes. In fact, if you were "driving" behind me in a virtual sense this year, you'd likely have seen my tail lights on ... even while I was driving 60 mph.

Yet just as the end of Q2 for me was about establishing and reinforcing consistency, confidence, and capital after the flash crash (check, check, and check), my goal for Q3 will be to loosen things up a bit.

For after yet another helluva personal comeback, the score is once again tied and the game is on the line.

It's time to stop playing for overtime and go for the win.

It's time to sling it.

Thursday Notes - Act Like You've Been There

2010-06-24T17:20:00.002-04:00

In today's video, I remind all of us that long stretches of consisently positive results as I'm currently experiencing should be considered the norm ... and not the unexpected. It's simply our job, and after years in this business, we should be able to distinguish wholesale vs. retail every day.

As for those in this industry who try to glorify this business via high fives when a successful trade occurs, they're simply rah-rah casino dealers continuing to mislead those pursuing this business as a serious, well "business".

Want excitement, disappointment, and entertainment? Go to Vegas. And don't forget to add budgeted gambling losses when you estimate travel and food.

Want to run a highly profitable business?

Work your a$$ off hour by hour, day by day, and year by year, don't go for home runs, and expect consistent success to be the norm.

After all, you own the dang casino.

Wednesday Notes - MATD Open

2010-06-23T11:38:00.016-04:00

While we wait for FOMC action this afternoon, here's a glimpse of this morning's MATD trade as narrated live inside the tank. Click to view; Note I've excluded comments from the Jellies for privacy purposes, and the Globex session short bias played out prior to the U.S. regular session open.

Some of the shorthand can be found in last year's Jellie acronymn dictionary post.

Note "TMAR" isn't listed and means "Take the money and run", "TD" means "Tick Divergence", "LOD" means "Low of Day" (after the blood has been spilled), and "TUB" means "Trust Until Broken". And if you've been in a cave for the last few years, "MATD" stands for the "Morning after a Trend Day", which provides one of the most consistent sources of revenue for this trader.

As always, my preference is to be flat during any scheduled news announcement, which in this case was sandwiched around the two highlighted sequences.

A full description of all MATD strategies can be found in the Jellie Webinars.

Mon & Tues Notes - High Tide

2010-06-22T13:07:00.001-04:00

I dread these sorts of posts.

For when my trading is going well, my preference is usually to simply remain silent.

Yet since this journal remains to a large extent ... well, my journal, I suppose I need to make some mention of my personal trading as of late.

First, I'll start with the negative. I've left a lot of money on the table in recent weeks -- which should keep my humility in check -- as the result of playing a great deal of defense. And anyone following sports knows when you play defense, the scores tend to be lower.

Yet the reward of playing strong defense is that I haven't been "scored upon" for a while. A long while. Over 20 days of "while".

And as much as I dread typing these words (call it superstitious or simply not wanting to upset current personal rhythms), I haven't had a loss in over 20 days.

OK, I said it ... so let's focus on the lessons.

For I fully admit that these six weeks have been tough for me from a trading perspective ... and for a number of reasons.

First, the May 6 flash crash hit took me below a trailing equity "reassessment" stop that I'd had in place for a long while. Frankly, it was the first time I'd dropped below an increasing trailing account stop in years.

Now one could argue the stop was too tight -- which may be true, although the older I get and the less need I have to risk capital, the tighter it will probably get. Keep in mind at this point in my life, I don't "need" to trade, unless my life expectancy suddenly increases to 120 or so.

Yet the reason I call it a "reassessment" stop -- which the Jellies know should define EVERY trading sequence stop one has in the market -- is that it would trigger a reassessment to avoid an Archie Karras (real) or Jesse Livermore (rumored) type of major long term capital meltdown.

And frankly, for me to fall $60K off my equity highs -- even for the seven figure account size I have -- would be of tremendous significance for this trader given my extremely consistent record over the years. Essentially, it would signal that something is "wrong".

We of course know that the only thing "wrong" was a 20 minute once-in-a-lifetime market liquidity failure where minutes literally separated a +$60K day from a -$60K day, yet rules are rules, and so it still required that I step back to reassess in a way that I've never really had to do.

And so I kept walking hour by hour, day by day ... yet clearly at less than 100% mental and confidence levels.

My goal during this time? Simply to build back the confidence by establishing rock-solid consistency over a period of time.

Another reason the last six weeks have been a challenge is given the number of personal events in my life -- most notably the recent graduation and celebratory events, which while being wonderful for many reasons, have adversely affected my focus at times.

Yet speaking of focus, I've discovered some tangible benefits to beginning an Omega-3 and Omega-6 program lately, which has resulted in better sleep, more vivid dreams, and greater sustained trading focus over the course of the day. So I suppose I should give some credit for the last few weeks to the folks from Nature's Bounty.

Yet here we are on this third day of summer and all seems as it should be.

The tourists and resulting traffic are arriving on the Cape right on queue, the weather is warming, and the trades are flowing alongside the tide.

And while I know the tide will shift over time, I'm going to try my darndest to stay on the board and ride this developing wave as long as possible.

The Weekend Trader - Raising the Sails

2010-06-20T11:02:00.010-04:00

On the heels of Wednesday's "Getting Restless" post, and as I approach several mile markers over the coming weeks and look to the next phase of my trading & life -- and at the risk of sounding a bit like "always but never retiring" Brett Favre -- I can't help but again wonder if this public trading journal has run its course.

Such a question also comes at a time where I wonder where my true focus should lie as I get ready to enter a new phase in my life.

Whether you call it a mid-life reassessment (I refuse to use the word "crisis", as it clearly isn't) or some other term, the fact is that I'm about to reach several mile markers which are getting closer to the end of the road than the beginning.

I had a similar feeling about a year ago. Instead of duplicating the content here, I'll simply direct you to last summer's post of similar reassessment as focus shifted for a brief period from self to group.

I've always told myself that I'd keep blogging as long as I felt it was helpful. And as I look back at two years of writing, I feel I've fully accomplished my initial goal of open and candidly sharing the ongoing challenges, successes, and stumbles of a bona-fide trader in this performance-driven field. For such was always my goal, from that day when I ended my self-imposed exile from public view to this very moment.

It's all here, with many of the highlights listed in the Key Post list in the lower left hand margin.

And I mean all, with specific and purposeful emphasis on the occasional pain, disappointment, frustration, burn-out, and momentary (but long forgotten) October '08 and May '10 daggers to at least try to offset the forever-rampant industry hype.

Yet most of all, this blog was intended to be a documentation of the human spirit. A formal record showing how, with the grace and strength from God and support of others, we can strive to overcome life's imperfections.

How else can we explain one trader coming off the mat again and again and again -- and again -- to overcome his humanity and achieve what some might consider the improbable on a sustained basis?

How else can we explain Chelsea's incredible story of managing a daily life-threatening situation to overcome the odds and accomplish more in 18 years than many do in 90.

And as I approach various markers over the coming days -- including the 2 Year anniversary of the blog, 1 Year anniversary of the Boston Bamboo Trader's Picnic, 1 Year anniversary of the Jellie launch, Chelsea's graduation party & 18th birthday (both yesterday), and beginning of our empty nest years -- I'm convinced more than ever that in our case, part of our mission is to inspire others to never give up on life.

Not only not giving up on life, but living it abundantly and to our fullest potential.

For as in this video which I first posted last July, life at times is going to do its best to shake us to our very core. The winds and rains will come -- hard -- and try to drown our strength and motivation. Some will even revel in seeing us flounder.

Yet as Truman did, perhaps it's simply our job to hold onto that rope and raise the sails so God's wind can direct us to that open door. And we all have the rope burns to prove it.

So long this remains our mission and there's more to share, the virtual blog pen will remain in hand.

And if life's sails direct us otherwise? We'll try our best to go where the wind carries us.

Happy Father's Day.

Friday Notes - Pursuit of Excellence

2010-06-18T12:59:00.011-04:00

6:54PM Update - Duhhh ... I forgot to wish all the Dads out there a Happy Father's Day!! Plus, a reminder to check out Thursday's post, which was posted late into the night.

While I promise this will be among the last posts on recent graduation events at this end, I can't help but AGAIN see trading parallels in the attached video clip of the Dennis-Yarmouth senior student gathering (held the day before the official graduation ceremony).

And when I see life's trading parallels, regardless of "who" it's about, I post away.

Now for a moment, I ask that you view the attached completely forgetting the "who", and instead focus on the "what" ... which is the only reason I'm posting this in a trading journal.

Trading lessons? Listen to principal Ken Jenks as he describes (1) what it took for the top two students to accomplish what they did (hint: count how many times he references "hard work"!), and (2) how the top five students all remained extremely close as friends as their "competitive friendship" and healthy "peer pressure" inspired and pushed each other to attain their own personal best.

Jellies, please pay attention to that last comment!

And so it is with this intensely performance-driven & zero-sum business called trading.

As Ken said, "Excellence is not about natural talent ... that gives you an edge. But in the end, excellence is ALWAYS about hard word. It's a simple formula, yet it's incredibly difficult to put into action. Excellence is no accident ... it's not a lucky occurrence."

Hard work and pushing each other to attain our personal best.

Words we should all live by.

Including this trader and author.

Note that the video was recorded via aiming the camera at the TV as it was played locally, so the quality isn't as great as normal ... but the substance remains.

Thursday Notes - EMail Bag

2010-06-17T23:55:00.017-04:00

A few things late on a Thursday night.

E-Mails - Most of the best "conversations" I have with traders come via phone, as well as the dozens of emails I receive weekly. So from time to time, I'll try to post a few emails and responses of some of the more pertinent ones ... while keeping the names private for obvious confidential reasons.

Question - I'm reading your blog every day, it's a great source of motivation and inspiration. There's a question I have regarding, as you said, "at the end to not overcomplicate this business". I came across a "professional" trader (he has been working on several trading desks in prop trading with various institutions), who basically says, that you need to learn and understand market profile, volume delta and order flow to be successful in trading the eminis ... otherwise you are at a serious disadvantage against all the pro traders out there. I would be very glad to hear your opinion on this. P.J.

Response - While I respect other traders' opinions, that's totally hogwash. I've never used it, never needed it, and have no desire to change. Don

Follow-Up - As I've often said, there are many ways to essentially "see" the same info. I simply choose ... well, simplicity, and Market Profile -- while used effectively by many traders -- easily falls into the "TMI" category at this end. If your trading isn't going well, it most likely isn't the tool or instrument. A violin is a violin ... some simply play it better than others.

Suggestion in response to Wednesday's "Getting Restless" post - (Excerpt from longer email) - First though I feel a reticence because already your blog is the most open and insightful account of the business out there and you do it all for free. So really how can I shame facedly ask for more? Anyway, I have gotten over the past 1500 hrs screen time that there are lots of different ways to trade profitably, and that it takes time to discover what suits ones personality best. For me, this is part of the ongoing learning curve which I recognize has to be managed well or the tools of the trade, the capital, will disappear.

To be able to sit in a trading room for a couple of hours with yourself; see how you composed yourself,, what you looked at and thought, how you managed trades, what you did in the gaps to stay focused, all that sort of stuff. Not to call out trades, or tell traders what to do, or even answer questions, since I expect this would probably cause legal issues and affect your personal trading. Next to making one’s own mistakes and bit by bit learning to stop repeating them (!), that’s how I certainly would benefit. Payment by subscription to “the room” weekly or monthly would be one way to do it, since I’m not really sure what benefit you would get otherwise. A.R.

Response - Thanks. What you describe is essentially the live multi-week Jellie effort, which I'll do again in the fall.

Follow-Up - First, as I mentioned above, there are many ways to trade. Remember, Rick Barry shot free throws underhanded! 'Nuff said. Second, with respect to an ongoing room, I still at this time have no interest in a recurring pay chatroom, which is a completely different business plan intended to generate ongoing non-trading revenues for the owners. Not that there's anything wrong with them per se, (yes, there are a few decent ones out there amidst the industry rubble), it's just a very different business plan. A further complication is that since I believe in teaching self-sufficiency, doing so sort of flies in the face of such an objective.

btw, if you're at all interested in the fall effort, please let me know now via email, as seats will again be limited and I plan on continuing them from time to time only if there's sufficient interest.

Feedback to Tuesday's "Beach Tour" Video (Excerpt) - Anyway, the bottom line is I felt that your video tonight was one of the most inspirational pieces you’ve ever done. I am sure the background setting of the beaches of Cape Cod were a contributing factor, but you also quietly hit on some key points about trading, goals, life, etc… that really hit home with me. You’ve often said ‘trading is a lonely business’ and when you trade from the cave at home, there are plenty of times when you can easily lose site of the big picture quest that you’ve undertaken. Really – I’ve seen darn near everything you’ve ever put out. And it’s all damn good. But tonight's video, for me, takes the top position. I plan on watching it a few dozen times, so it sinks in more. And on Wednesday, when I get done trading, I am going to my beach – also about 2 miles away – called the Pacific Ocean. Thanks for the great idea. C.K.

Just one of the many surprising (to me) responses to what I thought was simply a "change of pace" post.

Defense Wins Championships - And congrats to the Lakers, who learned this year that it's defense that wins championships against quality teams. In a game with hundreds of plays and a series with thousands, just two stops would have given the Celtics the championship. So true it is with trading as well, as for every mega-loss you avoid, that's one less comeback that you'll need to pursue, which can be so energy -- and capital -- draining.

Roosevelt Quote - Lastly, note the new Teddy Roosevelt quote recently added in the upper left hand margin:

Far better is it to dare mighty things, to win glorious triumphs, even though checkered by failure ... than to rank with those poor spirits who neither enjoy nor suffer much, because they live in a gray twilight that knows not victory nor defeat.

Words of wisdom in this business for sure.

Wednesday Notes - Getting Restless

2010-06-16T20:58:00.001-04:00

Yes, it's that time again as I resurrect the possibility of trading and tracking a modest account in addition to my hedge-fund sized main account.

Plus, a reminder at the end to not overcomplicate this business as we revisit the NY Expo "crayon" slide in terms of discussing today's successful MATD.

Tuesday Notes - Peparing for MATD

2010-06-15T23:21:00.002-04:00

"Preparing" for tomorrow's MATD and some reinforcing thoughts on traders "earning" their freedom ... which is no day at the beach despite the quick tour of my favorite unwinding spot.

Monday Notes - Blog Break

2010-06-14T23:50:00.001-04:00

Posts will resume on Tuesday.

The Saturday Night Trader - Midnight Reflections of Hope

2010-06-12T23:57:00.003-04:00

On a day of celebration for many of us, my mind couldn't help but drift to those "on the verge" of success. As such, I look to today's commencement words -- along with the story of the Detroit Pistons in the late 80s -- to try to provide a beacon of hope.

The Weekend Trader - Celebrations

2010-06-12T16:09:00.001-04:00

Trading posts will resume on Monday with some innovative developments at this end.

In the meantime, congratulations to Chelsea and to all of the 2010 high school and college graduates across the globe.

Let the parties begin!

Friday Notes - Stop the Point-Based Stops!

2010-06-11T16:08:00.003-04:00

Here are today's thoughts in response to several emails from frustrated traders re: point-based stops, as well as some NBA Finals trading parallels.

Special Post - It's Your Time

2010-06-10T14:03:00.015-04:00

Dear Chelsea -

It's your time.

It seems like just yesterday when you looked up at me with those one year old eyes that seemed to beam, "Trust your dream".

Tonight is your night.

Fast forward eight years, and it again seems like just yesterday when you were fighting for life's vitality, a victim of life's unfortunate circumstances over which you had no control. It was a day I'll never forget as we rushed a frail 55 pound young girl to Children's Hospital to face the beginning of a lifelong road of shots, tubes, and meters.

I remember several things about that trip.

I remember sleeping in the hospital playroom for the week when the beds were full.

I remember being promised that I'd be able to first practice giving insulin shots on oranges, before the nurse turned to me on the first night when it was time for your shot and said, "here, why don't you do this."

At which point, I recall screaming, "Wait, where are the oranges??" Yet the nurse reminded me why I hate trading simulators as she said, "Look, you're going to have to do this eventually, so now's a good time to start."

Tonight ends an intense four year road of personal sacrifice.

And I also remember the doctor staring you in the face on day one and saying there was nothing that diabetes would prevent you from doing. Nothing.

There's only one problem with this summary of history ... the word "victim" has never been a part of your vocabulary. It wasn't then and it isn't now, for you've instead chosen to pursue a life of quiet leadership by example.

As parents, we're supposed to teach our children, be stronger than them, and help point their way during our brief period of stewardship.

Yet you've reversed the order on all three counts.

I wince when I get a splinter. You've been stuck with needles over 20,000 times and have never complained.

Valedictorian. Top Gun. Top Dog. Numero Uno. An astounding four-year 4.24 GPA due to the weighting of AP courses & wire-to-wire #1 ranking for SEVEN straight years.

Life often isn't fair.

But tonight, it is.

And while I've said this before, I'll say it again ... you'd make one helluva trader.

Congratulations.

Wednesday PM Notes - Liar Liar

2010-06-09T16:12:00.006-04:00

This post and attached pic (click to enlarge) will hopefully be ridiculously obvious and/or redundant for anyone who has traded futures or equities -- or tiddly winks for that matter -- yet I couldn't pass up the opportunity to capture a shot of the ES DOM as a few traders were up to their usual games by flashing sizes on the bid as they were trying like hell to get short on the offer during the bull trap that was in the process of triggering.

At the time, I mentioned in the tank that I didn't believe any of them, and actually added to my short by hitting them ... just as I used to do with the ARCA and ISLD ECNs in the days when I traded CIEN, BRCM, and all of the other 1990s stock flavors of the day where traders were trying to get an edge via bluffing via the ECNs.

And while I missed snapping the pic when the inside bid was flashing 3000-4000 contracts (um, I was trading at the time ... so this took a back seat), I did manage to quickly capture the essence of the "gamesmanship" (I'm being nice), just before the bottom fell out.

In the NHL, that trader would get two minutes for diving.

In the NBA, he'd be laughed off the court and lose future close calls as the result of such "flopping".

Yet my guess is the refs in the futures industry (no fouls) are even worse than those calling the NBA Finals (if you breathe on your defender, that's a foul).

At this end, it's one of the best confirming contrarian indicators in the biz ...

... while providing more than enough instant supply.

P.S. In this case, many of the bids did get absorbed, thus exacerbating the move.

Wednesday AM Notes - Two Lessons

2010-06-09T06:57:00.014-04:00

Last night provided two lessons showing how trading yet again mirrors life.

First, the quote of last night's baccalaureate service goes to the graduating class marshall, who closed her speech with the following:

"None of us can go back and change our beginnings ...
... but we can all change how we end."

Sounds like a great opening page of a trading book.

Second, in the current NBA Finals, Ray Allen showed how important rhythm, confidence, and momentum are in terms of performance ... even for a world class athlete.

For after setting an NBA Finals record for shooting accuracy in Game 2, he went 0-13 in Game 3.

Isn't it so true with discretionary trading as well.

Guard your rhythm and confidence at all costs.

For it will help you pen that new ending.

Tuesday Notes - Graduation Week

2010-06-08T17:34:00.002-04:00

Expect some brief posts this week as our family is quite busy with Chelsea's graduation activities.

Baccalaureate service is tonight, awards night Thursday, graduation on Saturday, and the party the following Saturday (we'll be rolling out the 2009 Boston Bamboo Trader Picnic tents).

With final grades posted, Chelsea was officially notified of her valedictorian ranking last night.

Sure, this is a trading blog.

Yet more than that, it's my life blog and this deserves far more celebration than any trading accomplishment by this author.

These two recent posts help explain why:

This Trader's Inspiration
Priceless

I'll of course squeeze in some trading material in-between the events, including my plans to begin recording my day's session with the HD camera for both self-evaluation and sharing purposes.

In the meantime, assume the silence indicates all is well.

And thanks to the overwhelming email response to The Weekend Trader post on John Wooden.

His life provided the material.

I simply typed the words.

Monday Notes - Blog Break

2010-06-07T21:51:00.002-04:00

Posts will resume mid-week.

The Weekend Trader Part 2 - Lessons From John Wooden

2010-06-05T16:30:00.013-04:00

His record as a coach was unmatched.

His record as a human being may be as well.

- A 99 year life.
- An 88 game winning streak.
- 10 national championships in 12 years.
- A 38 game NCAA Tournament winning streak
- The best coaching record in the history of basketball.
- A Christian and a gentleman who took the Midwest, one-room schoolhouse values to a west coast campus in disarray and moral decline in the 60's and changed its world.

With this weekend's passing of basketball coaching legend John Wooden, let's look back at some of his memorable quotes -- which aptly apply to the world of traders and their coaches -- with my thoughts in italics:

Be quick but don't hurry. Wholesale (a.k.a "profitable") trading is all about timing. Wait for the wholesale price positioning and only then grab it quickly with both hands.

A coach is someone who can give correction without causing resentment. I can do better here.

Adversity is the state in which man mostly easily becomes acquainted with himself, being especially free of admirers then. Can you say October 6, 2008 or May 6, 2010?

Be more concerned with your character than your reputation, because your character is what you really are, while your reputation is merely what others think you are. Amen.

Do not let what you cannot do interfere with what you can do. Suck at DAX trading? Stick with ES!

Don't measure yourself by what you have accomplished, but by what you should have accomplished with your ability. As I've said before, it's not greed ... it's maximizing talent.

If you're not making mistakes, then you're not doing anything. I'll simply add that if you're not making mistakes, then you're six feet under.

It's what you learn after you know it all that counts. Been there ... and frequent the neighborhood often.

Never mistake activity for achievement. If you think you're a good hyperactive scalper, does your bottom line concur?

Success is never final, failure is never fatal. It's courage that counts. Again, been there and expect to visit often.

Winning takes talent, to repeat takes character. Personal lesson learned in 2009.

You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one. Another personal lesson learned from years of public exposure.

Success is peace of mind which is a direct result of self-satisfaction in knowing you did your best to become the best you are capable of becoming. Never let anyone else define your success or peace of mind.

And my personal favorite:

You cannot attain and maintain physical condition unless you are morally and mentally conditioned. And it is impossible to be in moral condition unless you are spiritually conditioned. I always told my players that our team condition depended on two factors -- how hard they worked on the floor during practice and how well they behaved between practices. This last quote shows me just how much more work I have to do at this end -- on the trading floor and in life.

Please save a seat on the heavenly bench for the rest of us John, as we continue our practice in this pre-season called life.

The Weekend Trader Part 1 - Bigger vs. Better

2010-06-05T13:05:00.008-04:00

Choices.

We all have 'em.

In life, it ranges from the "what do we wear and eat today" to the far more critical "what career and/or life partner do we choose?"

And in trading, it seems the choices are infinite in terms of what do we trade, when, what size, when do we exit, when do we rest ... and on and on it goes.

At my end, the choices recently have been mind-boggling, as I've learned that having an abundant amount of resources, performance longevity, and industry backing can result in a deluge of inquiry and opportunity on the business front. More frequent Expo speaking, auditorium seminars, interviews, vendor partnering, blog Google advertising, reciprocal links, book writing ... the email box is full and they're all there for the taking.

In short, I could go big scale and follow the "American Idol" approach in terms of pursuing the almighty cash machine.

There's only one problem.

It's not me, and -- well, frankly -- I like where I am right now.

You see, I'm a trader. A trader with a never-ending thirst for daily puzzle solving and personal performance improvement. A trader with a side, yet equally passionate interest in teaching and associating with other traders via limited small group efforts and blog bantering.

And I thoroughly enjoy both.

So to all those who have recently asked for me to rethink/expand/grow/change my current modest little corner of the trading world, and while I appreciate the opportunities, I'm going to respectfully keep doing what I'm doing -- trading, blogging about corny movie analogies, motivational tools, and daily market battles, and instructing via limited small group efforts to try to maintain a certain degree of quality, freedom, and sanity at this end.

You see, at my end, life has taught me to do one thing well. Two? Possible, yet the quality of each will likely drop. More than two? Forget it.

My life experience has repeatedly told me that I'm at my highest degree of productivity and quality output when limiting activities. Even in trading, my performance has always been best when I've limited my trading to a single market. Know it, live it, breathe it ... and don't get distracted by anything else. Boring? Only if you consider making more bank deposits than withdrawals dull.

Said another way, Navy SEAL Richard Machowicz -- who I referenced in the Memorial Day post -- says "Master your basic weapon. Don't try to master all of them". This guy knows ... he's had to stake his life on it.

I've often referenced the importance of simplicity in my life and trading. And as outside "opportunities" have increased over recent years, I now know why some race horses wear blinders, lest their performance be hindered.

This fact has been reinforced by my continuing to benefit from and enjoy trading among my Jellie peers -- an association that in some cases is becoming life-long as some of us have chosen to extend our association with each other far beyond the confines of the initial multi-week effort.

And while trading ultimately remains an individual sport, the benefits of a small "Ryder Cup" type of team effort are becoming clearer over time.

A "team" in an individual sport? Absolutely, with each representing a different body part or personality. George has an eye for reading the VIX. John G has an ear for even the subtlest of breakout heartbeats. Danny created and pursues the IFT (inverse fade trade), which was a spin-off of our no-fade policy during a critical time of the day. Cliff helps the scalpers see just a bit longer term to stretch their trades. John B helps remind me of my personal favorite trade if I'm slightly distracted.

Of course, we all have to continually work on not letting chat get in the way of making or pressing our trades. This is especially true for me.

Yes, I could go bigger.

There's only one problem.

I prefer continuing to work at getting better, both as an individual and a team.

Even if I have to wear blinders and miss the surrounding scenery.

Enjoy the weekend.

Thursday Notes - Office Tour, New Toys, & MATD

2010-06-03T19:51:00.000-04:00

Two videos tonight.

The first one (btw, I forgot to turn on the studio light, but it should be fine) addresses today's classic MATD, discusses a partial office equipment makeover, and follows up further on the lower portion of the recent scatter graph.

The second video follows up on the new "toys" in the context of a brief tour of my trading office, which I thought might be helpful since you usually only see a small part of my office (behind me in the videos).

Enjoy the game tonight.

Wednesday Notes - Poker Playing Traders

2010-06-02T23:32:00.010-04:00

A short post tonight to provide a recent story in the L.A. Times sent to me by one of the Jellies discussing why some Wall Street trading firms are putting their money on poker experts.

Thanks to Fred from our beta Jellie Team #1 for the link, and continued best wishes to John from Jellie Team #4 who is attending the 2010 World Series of Poker.

On Thursday, we'll continue our discussion of minimizing losses (expenses) that will appear on the lower portion of our individual scatter graphs.

Tuesday Notes - Scatter Graph Follow-Up

2010-06-01T15:33:00.004-04:00

First, thanks for the overwhelming positive feedback to the scatter graph referenced in The Weekend Trader, which generated as many emails as any post in recent memory.

Tonight's video provides a bit more perspective on "what it all means", including focusing on the lower half of the graph.

Advance hint: Remember that defense usually wins championships.

Memorial Day Notes - Learning By Remembering

2010-05-31T09:01:00.018-04:00

On a day where remembering those who have made great sacrifices for our country is paramount, here are a few trading nuggets that come to mind.

Lessons from a SEAL - Many know that years ago, I had the wonderful pleasure of working with Larry Connors, having written a daily column for him over an extended period and co-producing several educational courses, simulations, and other trader tools in the early 2000s.

Larry has made a ton of significant contributions to this industry in terms of strategies, statistics, and publishing -- including having co-written Street Smarts with Linda Raschke.

And as I was undergoing a major office and psychological "cleansing" this weekend (more to come on that topic over coming days), I came across some outstanding materials from Richard Machowicz, who is a former Navy SEAL and the host of the Discovery Channel and Military Channel show Future Weapons -- and who Larry introduced me to many years ago.

These materials have helped me identify two significant hitches in my current trading "swing" ... hitches that I'll call "comfortable traps" which are always lurking around every corner, and which I must avoid on a moment by moment basis at all costs.

Coindentally, as I was rumaging through ten years of office materials (you should see the full trash barrels as I separated the absolutely critical from the completely irrlevant ... and there's no in-between), Larry's interview with Richard from a few years ago also resurfaced. It's great reading.

So thanks to all of the Navy SEALs -- and all branches of the service -- who fight daily for our freedom.

Risky Stops - And speaking of Larry, here's another relevant post he did on why stops hurt those who focus on reversion to the mean strategies -- including those caught in the May 6 "Flash Crash" -- which includes a link to a Wall Street Journal article on the same topic.

As the Jellies know, risk management can often better be managed via size than stops ... which is my personal preference when trading reversion to the mean sequences.

Personal Remembrance - Finally, I'd like to remember Dr. Firouz Amirparviz, who was a friend and trading peer who we lost in 2004.

Firouz was a renowned cardiologist in the Midwest who once welcomed me into his home -- as he did hundreds of others.

He and his wife Cheryl will always be in our thoughts, and my wife Debra still wears and cherishes the beautiful silk scarf that Cheryl purchased -- without ever having met her.

It was a small token ... yet one that spoke volumes about their willingness to give.

Let's hope we learn from all such sacrifices -- no matter how large or small.

Enjoy the rest of the Holiday weekend.

The Weekend Trader - The Big Picture

2010-05-29T10:10:00.015-04:00

Two thoughts are running through my mind as we get set to start this Holiday weekend.

The Big Picture - First, one of the things that drives me crazy in this often overly-hyped business is the focus on the short term. The immediate. The last trade. The "I called the market right!" syndrome".

And we've discussed the concept of "time" many times in this journal, including the often quoted and syndicated Svithjod Rock post, as well as recently in great detail in my May 1 post on Delayed Gratification.

In the Jellie Webinars (which if you're new to this trek chronicle in painstaking 16-Hour detail the eight weeks of the beta Jellie Team's experience -- with a portion going to the American Diabetes Association), the first of the eight sessions references that trading is essentially the "long-term accumulation of short-term decisions".

I remember when we launched the Jellie program, that one observer commented something along the lines of, "well, just wait until he has his first blunder ... that will be the quick end of it". Yet, I knew that years of trading and teaching experience had taught me quite the opposite. In fact, I couldn't wait to make, discuss, and analyze that first "blunder" with the team, and that "blunders" are simply result of lesser probability outcomes -- whether it be the lesser probability of a high % chart setup, or the lesser probability that you've misread something or are simply off your game when you're on it the vast majority of the time.

And from my earliest days of mentoring traders to current efforts, realizing that trading is all about imperfection remains one of the #1 "light bulbs" for every participant ... which often immediately puts them at ease.

When I taught traders in the late 90s and early 00's, it didn't take but a few days to quickly realize that the industry -- which at the time was in its "rah-rah no one ever has a loss, but don't hold the chatroom auction caller responsible when he does" hey day -- had substantially left the terribly misguided impression that successful trading didn't include the losses, or the occasional -- yet highly necessary -- pain. Because it wasn't discussed. And frankly, in many cases, it wasn't allowed lest you be banned.

The result was that many people entering trading in this new era where markets became more accessible via the Internet were missing perhaps the most important piece of the puzzle. Or in other words, they were being told all about the lock -- how it looked, its composition, its role, and how great the locksmith who made it was -- but not handed the key. Frankly, it was sometimes because the locksmith didn't even have the key. He just had a fancy lock.

Now some may argue that I've overcompensated by discussing and venting about my occasional struggles more than my successes. Or that I'm a "downer". To that, you can ask any of the Jellies on Thursday morning when I was literally screaming my personal sequence ala Lewis Winthorpe on the early bear trap -- buying every dip-- before unloading it all on the 3rd and final push to 1094. It was fun, and I thoroughly enjoyed and briefly celebrated it for a few minutes before closing up shop for the day.

Yet it's still all about the long term. And such is why the live Jellie program and Webinars span multiple weeks. Because they have to. Do they replace the years of experience that must be developed and nurtured? Of course not. Yet if one is going to get formal instruction, you have to start with something that begins to emphasize that trading is far more than a trade, day, hour, or week.

Case in point. To the right is a random sort and scatter graph of my actual trading results over a sample time span (click to enlarge). The red line in the middle reflects zero, the dots above reflect positive days (the higher, the more profitable), and the dots below reflect negative days.

And the first thing that may surprise you is the amount of dots below the line -- including some far to the south -- which at first glace may lead many to think the net result probably is break-even at best. Look at it. Stare at it. And look again at the points to the south which we'll call ... well ..."blunders".

But it's not break-even at all.

Far from it.

For the net result of this "long-term accumulation of short-term decisions" -- blunders and all -- is well over two million dollars.

Now, look again at the graph. Note that the vast majority of dots are clustered just above the red line. The outliers to the north and south? They essentially offset. It's called grinding out a living hour by hour, and day by day.

Further, as I've always said, I consider the dots below the line to simply reflect business expenses -- which is how I book them. Necessary expenses which allow the "revenues" to the north to be generated.

And when we begin again on Tuesday? Well for me, one fun part of this business is never caring about knowing where that next "dot" will land -- while knowing full well what the long-term outcome will be.

Now, on to my second thought.

Who Wants It More? After last night's Orlando Magic series loss to the Celtics, Dwight Howard referenced that at the level of the Eastern Conference finals where talent is essentially equal, it ultimately comes down to who wants it more.

This time around, the Celtics simply wanted it more -- diving for every loose ball and giving up only the rare uncontensted lay-up without fouling to make Orlando earn it from the free throw line. Minute by minute, game by game ... they were relentless. And it showed in the final result.

And isn't it so true with trading.

Personally, my long term P&L is only driven by how bad I want it. Only.

And frankly, it is the only variable of which I have direct control, and will likely remain my main trading challenge so long as I choose to "lace 'em up".

So how bad do I want it right now?

More importantly, how bad do you want it right now?

Are we willing to make the sacrifices?

Are we willing to dive for loose balls?

Are we willing to buy hard after the selling has stopped and sell hard after the buying has stopped?

Are we willing to fight for those fricken "Missing Inches"??? (You HAVE to read that post of one year ago to the day and watch the video if you haven't before. My guess is that you're leaving several yards of missing inches on the table.)

For our answer will largely determine where all future dots will land on our graph.

Over time, of course.

Have a wonderful and restful weekend.

Friday Notes - Go Celts

2010-05-28T23:45:00.000-04:00

Taking the night off. Back at it over the weekend.

Thursday Notes - That Which Doesn't Kill You ...

2010-05-27T19:06:00.009-04:00

"Shocking" as it may be, those of us who have been fortunate enough to trade at a very high % clip -- and who have made millions in this business -- still find times when we go through our own personal trading hell, which as today's video will show, can best describe parts of my last few weeks.

Yet there's something special about the market doing its best to frustrate and "kill you" -- as was the case during the recent flash crash (1,700+ YouTube hits and still climbing) -- and you somehow finding the strength to simply fight through it ("it" being everything from sleepless nights to plenty of sub-optimized trades while you again find your footing and balance) with all your might and fortitude until you come out the other end.

And while this "comeback" wasn't as pretty as some (such as the infamous October 2008 Monday hit which was recovered in only three and a half days ... perhaps age is catching up with me a bit!), I managed to once again stumble and bumble myself to a place where my eyes, head, fingers ... and that ever-so-important sixth sense ... are back working in lockstep.

As I'll mention in the video, this one -- while lesser in size -- was tougher psychologically.

Yet I now consider that market "loan" to have been repaid in full, and I'm now out to collect both interest and "punitive" damages.

As has often been said, that which doesn't kill you does make you stronger.

Nice try market.

You had your chance.

But you should know by now how the story always ends.

Now, where were we before May 6 at 2:40pm?

Week of May 24 - Blog Break

2010-05-24T23:00:00.002-04:00

Posts will resume later in the week.

The Weekend Trader - Trading vs. Competing

2010-05-22T01:00:00.038-04:00

Please note I updated several parts of this post -- including the ending -- on Saturday A.M, so I encourage you to re-read it.

Also, thanks again to all Jellie Study Session participants as we've now surpassed $17K in donations to the American Diabetes Association!

There's "trading".

And then there's "competing".

And while it may be obvious to the astute that trading IS competing, it's been my experience that most don't view the two as being forever linked ... which is probably why the vast majority of this zero sum game give their capital to the small minority who consistently win over time.

At this end, when I'm in a rut or losing, I'm "trading".

On the other hand, when I'm in the zone and profitable, I'm "competing".

Take Friday for example. After the early morning sequence -- which I'm still analyzing as my undersizing the trade hasn't sat well with me -- I vented and complained in the Jellie Tank for at least 20 minutes.

Some think I'm too hard on myself. Others probably muted me (I'm doing more running audio in the room now), and I know at least one person left the Tank -- most likely because they didn't want to hear it.

But here's the deal. When you trade alongside me (with the teaching hat off between formal new Jellie training efforts), you have to realize that I'm not trading for "fun" or looking for social interaction, nor am I trading "casually", as a part-time "hobby", or to make some "supplemental income".

In fact I'm not "trading" at all.

I'm "competing".

What does that mean?

It means I do everything in my power to "feel" the market, as well as to motivate and push myself -- including getting simply fed up when easing up on the accelerator in terms of trade size during one of those 1-2 days a year where the market is a screaming buy ... complete with our classic opening "all clear" signal that we had on Friday.

And while the attached auto-trade capture chart shows I absolutely nailed the opening sequences (to refresh your memory, the triangles are the opening and closing of sequences, and the dashes interim trades which may be adds or decreases; blues are long sequences and reds are shorts), what it doesn't show is the size ... which frankly sucked.

And my plan to add heavy all the way up toward 1060 and then dump it on the move toward 1070? Well, suffice it to say that I ended up using a trowel instead of a Bobcat.

Now as a quick autopsy and to ease up a bit on the personal frustration, the reads were solid, I had been trading well since the 3AM Europe bell, and the last minute pre-open Globex tank required I make a few quick adjustments on the fly, which is probably why I eased up a bit. I also made sure I got "something" on, and sure as hell didn't short it. My main "issue" during the heat of the battle was continuing to buy six to eight points above my initial purchase (stupid rookie mistake ... like the market cares about my position or prior entries or exits) upon confirmation, and I figured I'd have another chance to load up. Then again, those are lame excuses. Fortunately, I didn't let the frustration result in taking any subsequent stupid trades.

In fact I did a quick survey of various trading venues around the Internet tonight, which confirmed the industry's continued silence in terms of discussing the overwhelming importance of trade size. Instead, it was all about chart patterns.

As I've stated time and time again, the big winners in this global competition know it's ALL about trade sizing, including adding to clear winners in a volatile market to help fuel the action in light of the ridiculously clear confirming coil break triggers where risk is clearly minimized.

And the winners also know that they can't ever have one iota of doubt creep into their mind when putting on a trade, knowing that high probability will do the heavy lifting over time and they simply need to execute.

And such is why I choose to "compete" instead of "trade".

Let me be blunt.

While I don't normally discuss my wins as I choose to share more about the losses for many reasons, I made over $30K over the last few days and am pi$$ed beyond belief. Because it should have been $60K.

And please understand -- it's not greed.

Rather, it's the recognition that this is a business like commercial fishing where you have to use a net when the fish simply show up and not a damn fishing line.

And patting oneself on the back when achieving anything less than your fullest potential does nothing to further continual self-improvement.

So I'm fighting mad.

Finally. (What took you so long Don??)

And the last time I was this mad?

No, it wasn't the May 6 flash crash hit, which didn't anger me as I simply "accepted" that part of this business. Hell, watch the video ... perhaps my lack of anger was a huge red flag.

It was December 2007.

Before the self-imposed lockdown and exile that led to a 15 month zone of all zones.

That was the competitive commercial fisherman with the net.

The good news?

My market feel is as strong as ever, the entry and exit points have been consistently solid, the sea will still be there on Monday, and God gives us a world of tomorrows for a reason in this world where humanity trumps perfection.

Oh, and I found my net.

Frankly, I'd forgotten how big it is.

Enjoy the weekend.

Friday Notes - Back in Saddle

2010-05-21T13:14:00.000-04:00

OK, I wasn't sized appropriately (no jokes, please) and the Jellie room will tell you I was irked beyond reason with undersizing a 10 point trade off the opening gift barf.

On the other hand, I must say it felt good to nail the 9:28AM 1052.50 buy, and my rhythm is as good as it ever has been as I close the best week of the year and start to once again string together multiple consecutive 5 digit days ... which frankly has been a huge necessity in terms of confidence as I continue to simply "keep walking" after the infamous flash crash.

Yet there continues to be plenty of room for improvement, including adding to winners in a market which should be a no-brainer in light of the increased volatility and confirming coil triggers.

And while I'm not satisfied with current performance in terms of optimization (a good sign), I suppose I should enter next week's personal trading retreat on the ocean with at least a positive frame of mind with ...

Thursday Notes - Payback Time

2010-05-20T20:00:00.005-04:00

I'll let the classic Trading Places movie cover -- especially the bottom comment -- speak for me tonight.

The Super Bowl of Trading continues tomorrow, and I'll be hitting the sack early to try to sustain the current level of focus.

No other comments tonight as I prepare for the overnight and morning sessions and continue to collect on the recent flash crash loan to the market.

Rest up Jellies, and DON'T get complacent based on today.

Wednesday Notes - Lessons From Gustavo Dudamel

2010-05-19T19:44:00.000-04:00

Tonight's video discusses similarities between Gustavo Dudamel's directing of the Los Angeles Philharmonic (he was featured in Sunday's 60 Minutes program) and my approach in trading -- both as an individual and in trying to optimize the Jellie results.

Tuesday Notes - Blog Break

2010-05-18T23:00:00.000-04:00

Posts will resume on Wednesday.

Monday Notes - Stalking the Outlier

2010-05-17T18:04:00.003-04:00

From my perspective, it should come as no surprise that the September '09 "Keys to the Castle" post -- which summarized the major take-aways of the beta Jellie effort as told by the traders themselves -- ranks as one of the top posts of the last two years in terms of onlooker feedback and trader career-changing content.

This is because in my view, stalking and effectively managing positive outliers is one of the most critical aspects of trading that pattern gurus fail to address.

What do I mean by positive outliers? Those one or two trade "sequences" over the course of a day, week, month, year, or career ... that skews the P&L to the "P" side, while buying you (1) bait for subsequent "fishing" trades and (2) time to stalk the next trade. You can do a blog search in the top left corner to find several posts addressing outliers.

And it's key on both a micro and macro perspective.

For example, on the macro front, we need look back no further than between late 2007 and early 2009 where I essentially bought over twenty years of six-digit income in about 15 months.

And on the micro front, today provided another solid example, when as is usually the case for me, it took a while to get my Monday motor running before essentially earning today's entire net on the single trade sequence on fading yet another noon push as noted on the attached time-based P&L chart (click to enlarge) -- which btw I've really found often best illustrates my trading day.

So whether it be one highly dedicated period of time during a career, or one trade sequence over the course of the day, it's all and only about stalking the positive outlier.

Of course, negative outliers will occur -- including the ultra-rare recent black swan which is quickly becoming a distant memory for this trader -- but good traders work their tail off to ensure they're few and far between.

Oh, I could have traded better today, including both increasing the results of the noon outlier and taking a few other trades which I read well as the new week's engine was getting cranked up.

Yet as the Celtics will tell you, I'll take today's somewhat sloppy win to continue the "in-tank" trading streak, and simply come back on the court again for the next game.

The only difference is that in trading, the cumulative scores of each game do count in the standings.

In fact, the cumulative scores are the standings.

The Weekend Trader - Continual Renewal

2010-05-15T19:23:00.005-04:00

Today I address those traders in the ongoing Jellie networking room in terms of the need for continual renewal and rededication -- in trading and life.

Friday Notes - Tidbits From the Jellie Tank

2010-05-14T14:22:00.003-04:00

In today's video, I share some tips we discussed in the Jellie room today, as well as use the attached time-based P&L chart (click to enlarge) in terms of describing (1) today's market flow, (2) my style -- which despite last week's black swan won't change, and (3) the need to adapt on the fly.

I'm also very satisfied with reuniting with the Jellies in the ongoing networking room, and have put in three days of successively increasing profit since my return ... further confirming my feeling of sharpness and focus when there.

And while I still need to ramp up the aggression, the market reads -- or adapting when wrong as discussed in the video -- have been solid.

Lastly, here's an article about the "whodunnit" trader who helped wipe out all of the ES liquidity during last week's meltdown. Thanks to Ric from the Jellies for the link. Now I can finally replace Bill Buckner's name on the office dartboard.

Please note I forgot to switch on the headset microphone in the video, so it was recorded via the webcam mike and is why it sounds as if I recorded it at either the Grand Canyon or the home of the Cleveland Cavs at about 10:30pm last night :-).

Thursday Notes - Blog Break

2010-05-13T23:00:00.000-04:00

Posts will resume on Friday.

Special Post - Priceless

2010-05-12T23:50:00.014-04:00

The Dow Jones nose-diving 1,000 points as the result of a once-in-a-lifetime electronic trading malfunction: Cost - $55,000

Your daughter providing one of the most inspiring performances you've ever seen in your life: Priceless.

In March, you read about Chelsea's journey and how she overcame her struggle with diabetes to reach the stars at the age of 17.

Now listen to what God has done with her life as she gives her senior high school farewell performance in the form of a violin solo of the theme from Schindler's List at the 2010 Dennis-Yarmouth Pops Concert.

P.S. I didn't shed any tears on Thursday. I did tear up tonight as I was recording this.

Wednesday Notes - Trading Losses

2010-05-12T18:02:00.000-04:00

Today's video responds to a few recent emails and comments addressing trading losses, while floating the idea of beginning an effort to track and log $100K in trading revenues using modest sizes and capital.

Tuesday Notes - Trading Environments

2010-05-11T20:33:00.002-04:00

Following up on Sunday's post, tonight's video addresses why I currently feel most comfortable (and profitable) trading in the Jellie networking room vs. solo or in a smaller collaberation.

Monday Notes - The Black Swan Concept

2010-05-10T19:24:00.000-04:00

Some thoughts on preparing for and dealing with "black swan" events.

The Weekend Trader Part 3 - Learning From Tylenol

2010-05-09T13:55:00.010-04:00

When we look back at history, EVERY single setback has led to greater heights and advances.

Many may remember years ago when J&J turned the Tylenol recall fiasco "lemon" into lemonade, and we can point to countless similar instances where setbacks have propelled people to something great ... including this trader's life and career.

For example, most know that on October 6, 2008, I took a $94K hit -- the largest dollar hit of my career -- which woke me out of slumber and led to my best month, quarter, and year ever. And the February 2009 "Nine Lives" post, which appears in the key post list in the lower left margin, addresses the number of times I've been "woken up" in a similar manner.

So as this unprecedented third weekend post is logged, you can probably tell that I've been continuing to soul search and pour over Thursday's events over the last few days in a way I've never done before. Ever.

For despite the minor scratch which could have been far worse, and despite the unprecedented market liquidity collapse on Thursday which contributed to the extent of the decline, there was one key factor that should have alerted me to shut down the liquidity portion of my business which had been so very profitable up to about 2:30pm ET on Thursday.

And every one of the dozens of Jellies (especially George!) and hundreds of Webinar viewers will know exactly what I'm talking about with three letters.

V-I-X.

Yes, the VIX, which serves two purposes for us.

First, it's one of our PRIMARY leading indicators. And second, at worst, it's a solid SOOT (Stay out of Trouble) & seatbelt clue.

And I'll go on record to all of the Jellies and thousands of onlookers to say I simply missed seeing the 1:20pm ET break (see chart below; click to enlarge) when I made my initial long entry.

That's correct ... I didn't see it and am still scratching my head as to why not. And it was well before the ultimate breakdown, which provided plenty of time to close all long positions, lest consider reopening others until the later capitulation sub-1100, which could then have been bought hard without regard to managing prior positions.

It's on my screen, I've preached it for years, it's a main theme of the Jellie training, and I'm always watching it. Well, Thursday's events told me apparently not "always".

One of the Jellies has essentially made it his #1 indicator.

Which brings up a very intriguing question in terms of trading solo, which I'd been doing for much of the past few weeks to essentially get other student-trader "voices" out of my head for an interim period and "buckle" down in terms of focus.

Well, the buckle apparently got jammed.

Now most know I've been on both sides of the fence right on the issue of group vs. individual trading over the years, and have continued to vacillate big-time. And I've found that over the years that traders -- including the Jellies -- have been spilt over preferring to trade amidst other influences, even if the group thinks alike.

And as I mentioned, I personally chose over the last few weeks to go back to trading solo, although I reconnected with one trader that day ... although we didn't stay together all day.

What's further ironic is when I facilitate the live Jellie training, I'm discussing the VIX live, along with every other key indicator. Call it a talking chart. And had I been either teaching or in the ongoing group room, there's no way in hell I would have re-engaged the liquidity business on the long side -- even in a partial position. And some of the Jellies took full advantage of the signal -- as they should have.

In his book, The Great Eight (How to Be Happy When You Have Every Reason to be Miserable), Scott Hamilton says the following:

"Don’t face problems alone. Men’s figure skating is a solo sport, but I still needed a coach to get the most out of my abilities. Life often seems like a solo sport, too, but finding a coach -- a spouse or a friend with whom we can share our problems -- will make our attempts to solve those problems more enjoyable and more successful. Humans are social animals, as my coach, Don Laws, used to remind me. We’re not designed to face problems alone, so we shouldn’t try to do so."

Well, in addition to addressing visual and audio chart alerts at this end, I'm going to use the events of Thursday to completely rethink, and potentially restructure my views on the dynamics of group trading, whether it be a sub-Jellie group of two, the full Jellie group, or something different.

Yet for the moment, all I know is this.

A group of one didn't cut it on Thursday.

And I'll never forget the words of our former-NFL quarterback Jellie, whose coach would often tell him, "You can do far better than that".

He hated to hear those words.

As do I.

But he'd be damn right.

For while I managed well once I was in the middle of oncoming traffic, I could have stayed on the curb.

The Weekend Trader Part 2 - Market Crash Laugh of the Week

2010-05-09T01:14:00.011-04:00

Here's the market crash laugh of the week for this trader in the context of excerpts from tonight's Saturday Night Live "Really!?!" segment with Seth Meyers and Amy Poehler:

Seth - And what is going on with technology in general? On Thursday, the Dow fell 1,000 points because someone entered a billion instead of a million. How is that possible? How is there not a backup system?? When I delete a picture on Facebook, it asks me if I'm sure! Why is Facebook more squared away than the Dow?? I mean, really!

Amy - Yea, really ... one guy can do a billion dollar transaction and a manager doesn't have to approve it?? If I'm trying to pay with a $50 at Starbucks, it turns into a four man operation! They have to call corporate headquarters. I mean really!!

Of course, it sounds better with video & audio, so here's the video link.

It's often been said that laughter helps the healing process, so thanks to the SNL gang.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend.

The Weekend Trader - Continued Crash Autopsy

2010-05-08T09:54:00.038-04:00

11:25PM Post Addendum -- The voice of the Pit crash replay referenced below is that of Ben Lichtenstein of TradersAudio.

Most know that for a number of reasons too numerous to mention, I typically try to avoid doing two things in this business: looking back (whether it be charts or my own performance) and reading industry "press".

Instead, I prefer to simply show up each day and go to work.

Yet Thursday's historic market action has me doing both in order to assess recent events, learn from them, and share my views.

So in one of my longer posts, here is one trader's continuing perspective to the market meltdown.

Thursday's Post - I'll start with feeling it was important to get Thursday evening's blog post and video out as quickly as possible. While I'd backed off on posting frequency and discussing my own trading recently, I felt it critical -- as well as personally therapeutic -- to get my candid thoughts out quickly, despite the tough personal day ... er, I mean 15 minutes.

I did so because it seemed in line with my diary mission from day one, which was to show everything in an industry where too much is left unsaid, or simply purposely hidden. For too often, analysts and rah-rah cheerleading "put-your-money-at-risk-not-mine" advisory services run and hide when things don't go well. Plus, few bona-fide traders -- especially those on the liquidity (house) side -- ever want to talk about their (a) performance, especially when bad, and (b) strategies, less it ruin any real edge.

btw, in my searching, I'm still looking for liquidity providers -- any -- to publicly discuss their Thursday bruises, although some have indicated they simply shut down to prevent further losses. Having said that, I do realize and respect the fact that none of us ever have to disclose private info. Nevertheless if you come across any interesting reads, feel free to share via comments.

I suppose the same can be said for athletes, as has recently been the case when the press has tried to find David Ortiz after games to explain his sub-.200 batting average and complete loss of any resemblance to his former self.

So I came up with the silly idea a few years ago to launch this online diary. Does that make me better than anyone? Of course not. It simply seemed to be a void in the industry then, and a continued void now. So I babble away trying to educate, motivate (myself and others), and create a lasting chronicle of one man's journey and lessons.

btw, before I posted that night, I did have my usual Thursday massage and poker night just to "keep the feet moving", although as I look back, I don't remember much of either ... except I do remember telling one poker buddy that the day for many was like having someone tell you your uninsured house had burned to the ground, causing you to sell it quickly to an unknowing party to salvage SOMETHING, and then having the person who told you the news, say "KIDDING!!".

Post Feedback - Naturally, the post subsequently and quickly resulted in a flood of emails and industry chatter, which ranged from the 1% "Like Tiger, I like Miller better when he's been humbled" to the majority of supportive emails including one highly accurate reminder that we're all simply temporary stewards of God's assets.

Which brings to mind why it's essential for traders to continually balance humility with aggression and confidence. For like athletes, show me a passive trader and I'll show you missed opportunity and a losing P&L. Talk to any Christian athlete, and they'll likely tell you of their daily struggle to balance the two.

Regardless, I couldn't help but to check the site traffic -- more of a curiosity than anything as I've never had a goal to drive traffic -- which as I mentioned yesterday spiked to all-time highs. Perhaps Kevin's comment to yesterday's post explains it better than I did. Sorry if I sounded a bit cynical. And the YouTube video is now at 1,200 and climbing.

In part, what I believe may be happening is how crises in general tend to bond and unite traders. After all, we're all in the same "fraternity". And so to all and new friends, welcome (or welcome back).

And here's an incredible replay of the Pit action during the freefall as provided by a few onlookers. The voice is that of Ben Lichtenstein of TradersAudio.

Debacle Autopsy - OK, back to Thursday's trade. As of this writing, I'm still not sure whether to be perturbed or elated over how I handled the day. Yet perhaps the best description is a rather ironic combination of disappointment and satisfaction.

This is because I could have (a) avoided the blindside hit (the disappointment that I didn't), (b) handsomely profited from it (another disappointment), and (b) gotten killed (the satisfaction that I didn't).

First, let me say that one regret is I wish I'd captured and printed the day's actual TT trade auto-plot chart, which I didn't amidst the closing chaos, and they reset each day. But I do have my trade log and will walk through the sequence of events.

As I mentioned in Thursday's video and in several past posts, I have two business strategies - Providing Liquidity (the Casino "House") and Speculating (the guy walking into the Casino). And as I've also said in the past, there's a fine line between the two and they actually tend to blur. Suffice it to say that Speculating typically reflects longer-term trend type holds where I'm the aggressor.

Anyway, up until 2:30pm ET, I'd actually had a strong day going, keeping my sizes relatively light and providing liquidity on the long side near each barf point and exiting into the resistance. Then, with ES down 40-50 points and charts signaling what is usually extremely high probability, I began to step in to provide some short-term liquidity with a teeny (for me) 30 contract size on the long side near 1120, with a second teeny 30-contract size just north of 1100, so my average price was around 1110.

Now one important note about this strategy. As I teach, this was NOT doubling down. Rather it's scaling into wholesale market points with very partial pre-determined sizes, and not putting a larger wholesale position on UNLESS the market confirms the expected move. Further, I purposely chose for this sequence to manage risk via partial position size vs. a hard stop, which is one of those elements that most "hang out a shingle" non-trading analysts never discuss. It's a strategy that in the long run and despite the rare hit like this, has earned me well over seven figures.

Now I will say that looking back, I'm not quite sure why I only had 60 on, because my current "standard" trade size is 120, with a maximum of 480. Perhaps it was some inner feeling that it just didn't feel right, who knows. Yet there were no bottoming signs warranting anything more than a toe in the water, and thus was in line with my plan that if 1100 HAD held after an initial probe south and rebound, I would have put the other 60 on upon confirmation with a hard stop then on a further break.

Ironically, in hindsight it still would have worked ... except the 40 point plunge below 1100 made it difficult for me to conceptually re-buy when it finally traded back above 1100, as it would have been 40 points off the low. If liquidity hadn't taken its once-in-its-history 10-minute near-death experience that required defibrillators to restart, it would have been a very profitable trade.

Now those of us who have been around for a while have of course seen illiquid markets before, especially in the context of surprise interest rate cuts, employment reports, & FOMC decisions (the latter two being anticipated). And we know some of the most illiquid markets can occur during the overnight trade.

Yet few, if any of us have ever seen instances where liquidity was breached intraday to a point where some stocks momentarily lost ALL of their value (can you say Accenture?) amidst the electronic trading chaos.

So, how do I feel I handled it?

Perhaps the best analogy this poker playing trader can reference, is losing quad Aces to a Royal Flush.

We'll start with what I did well.

- Partial sizing. Huge safety net. Who knows what I might have done if sized larger given the emotion of the situation (btw, I was keenly aware of the intraday P&L during the plunge ... I just tried to not let it affect my decisions.) And despite the above trade plan rationale, why I didn't instinctively bet the Quad Aces harder before the final plunge will perhaps forever be a mystery.

- Not barfing it out at the lows for close to a 5% hit, and instead waiting for a 30 point rebound to bail. Don't get me wrong ... it was and still is a bit painful and will take some time to heal, but if you had to make a choice between losing a sure finger versus a possible arm under extremely pressing conditions, the choice seemed clear.

Here's what I didn't do so well:

- Trading the afternoon. I normally don't, due largely due to lesser probability and increased pattern uncertainty. Plus, I'm usually tired by 2pm and simply either call it day or trade incredibly small for fun. That was probably my largest mistake. Yet I sensed opportunity and usually have pretty good judgment in terms of when rules can be appropriately bypassed. I just didn't count on the Royal Flush.

- Not putting a trailing stop on my strong intraday P&L.

- Selling all 60 on the initial rebound instead of only 30 which I should have held to get more info on what was going on. Again, risk would have been managed via sizing. If I had done so, I would have had the option of selling the other 30 at a higher price or putting the other 30 back on after realizing what had happened.

btw, in the heat of the battle I did consider buying the 1060-1080 area, yet had a concern of possible CME busted trades lingering in my mind given the extraordinary conditions. That coupled with an impossible tape/DOM read at the time kept me from doing so. I was also concerned about the possibility of a 9/11 type market halt or the lock limit kicking in around 1050.

- Not having a longer-term speculative short trade on to hedge the shorter-term liquidity trades. Yet the risk/reward on doing so and getting decent wholesale entry prices simply seemed poor the further the market fell, so that one's not a big issue.

- Scaling back my aggression a bit on Friday morning. I was a too apprehensive on Friday's MATD as I simply wanted to let the dust settle when I'd normally trade it hard. And I left far too much money on the table in doing so, and as a result will extend the recovery period. Yet I got back on the horse the moment I got up, so that's a plus.

In summary, some larger draws are the result of poor judgment, others the result of the lesser probability happening in which you only incur a small ding, and still others the result of some once-in-a-lifetime black swan. And if I had to weight 10 points to all three elements this time, I suppose I'd give the black swan a 7 or 8. Yet responsibility still lies with the trader to deal with the swan, and I still remain accountable for my actions from a stewardship perspective.

# # #

So I guess that's it in terms of looking back for now.

In my daily job of providing a liquidity service for other traders, I lost a finger ($55K on about $2.9 Million in trading capital or 1.9%).

The bright side? Well, consider that the worst case of an ill-timed & fully-sized "leveraged" 480 contract position at my average purchase price barfed out at the lows would have cost me $1.2 Million.

In the course of careers, traders get dinged like hockey players lose teeth.

Yet nothing in this business worth pursuing comes without risk. And as Charles Sanford pointed out (a must read if you missed it), playing it safe over the long run is often more dangerous.

It's called the cost of doing business.

Fortunately, with nine fingers I can still type ... and trade ... and the comeback has already begun.

And in this business, the finger does grow back ... but you have to protect the arm and hand.

For those who aren't quite as fortunate, I hope that remembering that we are all only temporary stewards of whatever capital we have will provide some measure of relief.

We simply do the best we can.

A wise man once told me that.

He's my father.

Friday Notes - On the Rebound

2010-05-07T16:16:00.012-04:00

Some quick thoughts as the day and week wrap up.

- Today's checklist coming into this morning's trade: Keep it tight, keep the feet moving, stay out of trouble, and finish profitable. Check, check, check, & check.

- 'Twas very nice to see the market give me a chance to re-buy yesterday's sales just south of 1100. I did want those back -- if only for a few minutes!

- Also nice to see other liquidity providers not taking a 10-minute break this time around and the market depth holding. They must have been well-rested after yesterday's 2:45pm nap. Of course they also helped facilitate the early MATD and triangle plays in the context of the hourly downtrend.

- Why does NASCAR get such great ratings? It's the crashes. Same thing here I guess as yesterday's video is now over a record 1,000 trader views, and the blog traffic spiked to a 12-month high yesterday and an all-time high today. Where've you been? :-). btw, I'm working on close-up photos of the ambulance.

- Greatest Hits: The October 2008 Monday meltdown still ranks as my largest hit at 5.5% (recovered by the end of the week). Comparatively, yesterday's registered "only" 1.9% (thank goodness for a partial 12% size!), although it did briefly tag 4.8% when ES traded 1060.

So the way I look at it, yesterday's draw was already 60% recovered by the end of the day, and I'm now simply working on the other 40%. Hey, anything to keep the confidence. Some early career draws of course clocked in higher with far smaller accounts, as is typical when starting out.

- And the VIX closes at 40+. In '08, it took a day to get the eyes adjusted. Let's hope yesterday was a similar eye exam.

Lots more work to do of course, but it's a start.

More thoughts over the weekend.

Thursday Notes - There's No Crying in Trading

2010-05-06T21:45:00.003-04:00

My candid (as always) perspectives on today.

And some needed levity:

Wednesday Notes - Monster MATD

2010-05-05T17:55:00.001-04:00

Here are some brief thoughts on today's monster MATD, along with my perspective on the recent increase in volatility and a general blog update.

The Weekend Trader - Delayed Gratification

2010-05-01T08:33:00.009-04:00

I mentioned the other day that I was having a hard time coming up with things to blog about lately.

And as we near the two-year mark on this 670th post of what began as a temporary experiment, I admit new words remain a bit of a struggle.

As most know, this journal has evolved a few times -- hopefully for the better, but that's not for me to decide -- since its mid-2008 inception.

Initially, the blog was a balance of (1) documenting & sharing new insights I'd learned when was off the grid in the mid-2000s, and (2) a blow-by-blow daily diary recap of my trading day. The idea at that time was to present all of the aspects that comprise this trading business, including as I've often said, the good, the bad, and the ugly.

And while there's been lots of all three -- which I'm always conscious of trying to balance before writing each day -- some will probably tell you that from time to time there's been too much of any one of them.

And they're probably right, for this reason. For even as this journal has evolved into more of a motivational tool over time, the entries still reflect my ongoing thoughts, and in many cases my diary. As such, the alternating periods of extended in-the-zone trading, pratfalls, burnout, sleepless nights, boredom, heath challenges, educational emphasis, and spiritual rebooting ... well, they simply are what they are -- life's cycles.

One underlying theme that I truly hope has come across in the blog, is emphasis on the long-term. Three posts immediately come to mind, the recent Focusing on the Comma post, the most-referenced Chinese Bamboo post, and the 2008 Svithjod Rock post which was later syndicated in various places including the 2009 Trader Expo Directory. And I do so because I believe such emphasis is one of the least discussed, yet most important aspects of one's trading career.

And one's life.

Such is why even the live Jellie efforts are spread out over a month's time (and the first beta one on which the Webinars are based, two months). For it's the non-technical & non-immediate aspects that have received the strongest feedback.

Like the market, trading and life go through cycles. You see the ebbs and flows clearly in stock or futures charts, and I suspect if you were to graph your own trading performance -- and even your life -- you'd see similar patterns of plateaus, breakouts, consolidations, troughs, low volume (interest), etc.

Yet in a trading business where so much focus is placed on the "now" -- including both the immediate action and one's immediate performance -- it's all too easy to focus on laying the single brick vs. the 100-story building. And most of what is discussed in this all-too-hyped & need-for-immediate-gratification industry seems to discussing the brick.

So I've tried to compensate just a bit.

Why do I feel this way? Because I fall into the same trap at times.

And let's face it, immediate gratification has become entrenched in today's society. Microwave ovens, fast food mega-empires, 800 channel cable TV packages, never-out-of contact Blackberries/Ipods/Ipads (& yes, my Sony Vaio), and everything linked to the Internet -- ranging from the wonderfully good to the terribly bad -- is all about both immediacy and speed.

At this end, it took me close to a decade of starts, restarts, tweaks, priority shifting, etc. to refine performance to a point where I was satisfied I'd begun tapping full potential, and it's still a constant daily battle.

And as this new month begins, I'll remind everyone -- including this trader with his hands on the keyboard -- that there will be 20 trading days this month, as well as in months to come.

Twenty days to carve out a monthly income -- which as the Jellies hopefully know by now, could very well come in the form of a single trade outlier with the rest of the time spent fishing or playing defense.

Twenty days. One trade.

When you look at it that way, trading goals suddenly don't seem too daunting.

In fact if you approach every day or month with that perspective, you may just find yourself producing a year's worth of crop -- or see the Bamboo shoot up before your eyes -- in a single month as if by accident.

And isn't it highly ironic that by seeking to delay gratification, you may actually be accelerating it?

Have a great weekend.

Wednesday Notes - Keep the Feet Moving

2010-04-28T20:43:00.005-04:00

For those who have asked, I'm here ... and trading.

It's just that I'm struggling a bit with what to talk about these days.

I also just got up from my post-MATD late afternoon/early evening nap.

Oh, we could talk about today's monster MATD ... which I chose to get up at 3am to trade both the Europe and early U.S. sessions.

Or we could talk about the need to always be flexible and alert ... as was the case when the Spain news broke just before noon.

But I settled on sharing one particular bugaboo I have from time to time in my trading, which is the tendency to get a bit sloppy and out of rhythm whenever interrupted and needing to leave my trading station, resulting in my needing to scramble a bit at times to find it again.

And today's time-based P&L (below ... click to enlarge) says it all as my trading -- and rhythm -- were both interrupted by a 7am ET chiropractor appointment, after which time I found myself on the retail (a.k.a. "stupid" or "losing") side of a few sequences ... which is clearly reflected in the extremely unusual 3 consecutive bars of losing 30 minute intervals.

As I mentioned recently, the bars reflect profit or loss incurred during each 30 minute interval that begins with the time noted in the chart.

In today's case, I went to bed early last night as I felt the Europe session would provide some of the better oscillation reads & opportunities (trading both the DAX and Globex ES), and planned on pretty much being done by noon -- in part because the afternoon of MATDs are often coin flips, and in part because of the FOMC trade wild card.

It's funny ... the sequence actually started with my being on the right side of the bull move that began just before 7am ET, which I entered via my remote Vaio and inappropriately scratched (error #1) before then settling down at my trading station and being far too early on a couple of short sequences (error #2).

Yet as always, trading isn't about one trade, trade sequence, day, hour, or 30-minute interval. Rather, it's about the entire collection of work over one's lifetime. To put the latter in perspective, there are approximately 6,500 30-minute intervals in a year, assuming 13 tradable hours between Europe's open and the U.S. close & 250 trading days a year, so each interval is 0.015% of the year.

Or said another way, trading -- like life -- is about simply keeping the feet moving.

So as you can tell, I'm having some fun using the automatically generated time-based P&L to analyze the day.

As they say, a picture is worth a thousand words.

And today, it likely tells the story better than I can.

Monday Notes - Remembering Who We Are

2010-04-26T15:29:00.008-04:00

First, my congratulations and best wishes to our good friend Dr. Brett, who announced while I was gone that he'll be ending both his blogging and part-time trading efforts to focus on the growth of other traders in a private environment, and in turn, further growth in himself.

Brett is one of the good guys in this industry, and I wish him well as he goes off the grid. I can personally relate to the challenge of balancing various interests, including the tremendous time and effort it takes to blog in a no-B.S. manner for the trading community in a free forum, and I wish him Godspeed on his new journey.

# # #

Now, for what I consider one of my more difficult posts -- in terms of what to say -- on the heels of three days and four nights of full spiritual immersion and intense reflection.

Frankly, I've thought long and hard about what I'd publicly say about this past weekend, including seeking counsel from those with whom I spent considerable time over the last 72 hours before I hit the post button.

One reason for my apprehension, is that I'm aware that there are many risks in "speaking" after a personal emotional or spiritual event, including coming across as holier-than-thou, better-than-the-rest, acting in snap-judgment fashion, or having the words and thoughts misinterpreted as a way to try to market one's business or sell services.

I'm also aware that the vast number of onlookers who visit these virtual pages follow various faiths.

So I considered several options, ranging from saying nothing to saying everything, before settling on something in-between ... although it's probably the longest post I've ever done.

Is this the right approach? I don't know. But I do believe that saying nothing would have clearly been the wrong choice and defeated much of the weekend's intent, so I'll simply speak from the heart and let it be what it is.

And as you read the following thoughts, I ask that you forget for the moment that I have a trading education business. Similarly, at this end, I've purposely refrained from adding any of the usual cute graphics, pictures, or linked text, and have turned off the comments for this one post so we don't turn this personal diary entry into the "great faith debate".

So with that said, here are the highlights of my story:

As I've hinted in the last few entries, parts of the last few weeks have been difficult from a personal and energy perspective, with the events of my family being blocked from reconnecting in London three times -- by of all things, a volcano in Iceland -- resulting in tears and cursing on both sides of the Atlantic. No one certainly died or was sick, yet the series of events was still extremely frustrating ... especially on the heels of other personal issues.

I've also been bored and restless at times, which I'm sure has also been reflected in various diary entries referencing block trading goals, continued dissatisfaction with trading education in general, starting a formal trading university, etc.

At the same time, I've been tangling (a nice way to say "fighting") with God. Arm-wrestling would be polite ... picture spiritual kick-boxing. And while I won't go into all of the details, we all know who wins those battles.

And then, while certainly not a calamity, after having traded successfully Thursday morning and purposely shutting down at 2pm so as not to know how the market closed (to keep any opening trading sequence thoughts completely out of my head on Friday), my weekend sponsor's car radio -- which was only on to get the traffic report as we were in a one-hour back-up to get off Cape Cod due to bridge construction -- happened to announce the closing Dow figure.

Of course the minute I heard it, I knew that it meant that the day had ended in a strong trend fashion off the early lows, which would in turn set up several classic MATD (Morning after Trend Day) sequences for Friday's Europe and U.S. sessions. Call it a very likely monthly income-producing trading bonanza. And for a few moments, I felt like asking Bob to turn the car around, and run back for my Vaio. After all, I'd have time to at least trade the Europe session and still not miss any of the key Friday morning events.

But the weekend rules were clear. No PCs, internet access, cell phones, or watches. For this was to be a rare opportunity to participate in a wonderful program offered only twice a year to help people reconnect with God and rededicate one's life to Christ, and my only job was to do whatever I could to simply shut down my small portion of the world for three days. And here I was struggling with even doing just that.

Not a great start.

I said little as I continued to sit in the back of my sponsor's Jeep Cherokee ... feeling completely frustrated and helpless. Sitting in traffic. And more traffic. (Ever try to sit in the back of Jeep for two hours with a bad back?) And then the skies opened up. It poured. Buckets. And the jeep just crawled along as walkers -- yes walkers -- were passing us. Frankly, this impatient Type A would have felt more comfortable in the dentist's chair.

I felt, well ... "caged" would be a pretty good description.

Yet I continued to proceed on faith that recent events were "leading" me to where we were headed.

What I didn't know would be the impact the next 72 hours would have on me.

For as we turned onto the highway leading to the retreat center, the rains ended and out popped ... you can't make this stuff up ... the largest rainbow I've ever seen that looked infinitely better than Plasma or HDTV. Vibrant colors and both ends. Further, as we looked more closely, it wasn't just a single bow. For next to it, was a second fainter one. It was sort of like that classic Ocean's 13 scene where George Clooney and Brad Pitt were brought to tears while watching Oprah.

And while I know it wasn't there "just for me", I did have a sense of peace come over me that -- over the next 72 hours -- would become a personal flood beyond anything I have ever experienced.

As I mentioned, the event was called "Walk to Emmaus", which is taken from the biblical journey Jesus took with two of His disciples after He had been crucified. The "walks" reflect spiritual reconnection weekends that are periodically held throughout the world. And while you can search the web for more info, words will never be able to describe the incredible depth and breadth of God's love that four people in southern New England and hundreds of people throughout the world -- backed by literally thousands of prayers -- experienced this weekend.

At this end, of all the many lessons, light bulbs, and other powerful reminders we received during the three days, perhaps the greatest one was provided by our table leader -- a wonderful older tough-as-nails Christian man (Bill) who had spent years in the Navy and as a commercial fisherman. (btw, he gave me enough fishing/trading analogies for the next year!) For he explained one time he was also in a major battle with God before he had his prayers answered far beyond his limited human expectations.

As he told the story, the end result was God reminding him, "Remember you're Bill and I'm God. And please never get the two confused again."

Lesson tucked away for this impatient, control driven Type A.

At the end of the effort, we all had a chance to speak during the closing service. Now I've spoken before hundreds of audiences over the years, including on highly emotional or energized issues to various legislative bodies, commissions, state regulatory agencies, town meetings, trading audiences ... you name it. And I've never "lost it".

Well, that evening I lost it ... at least for a few minutes before composing myself enough to share the full extent of my weekend experience. For I was both humbled and overwhelmed by the combination of grace, power, and love that God had shared with us -- and through absolutely no doing of my own.

And while I could go on for days, I guess I'll leave it at that in terms of details and will close with the following.

I went into the weekend seeking a brief rest. Instead, I was renewed and refreshed beyond understanding.

I missed a short-term income producing opportunity. Instead I was rewarded with riches beyond measure.

And I certainly didn't expect a rainbow. Instead, the grace of God provided two.

Yet this isn't the end of the story. Nor is it the end of the task.

It's just a renewed beginning.

As always, it's how we share the gifts that's important.

It also helps to remember that we're who we are, and God is God.

We should never overestimate our own power or strength.

And certainly never underestimate His.

They that hope in the Lord will renew their strength,
they will soar as with Eagles' wings.
-- Isiah 40:31

Lord, make me an instrument of thy peace;
where there is hatred, let me sow love;
where there is injury, pardon;
where there is doubt, faith;
where there is despair, hope;
where there is darkness, light;
and where there is sadness, joy.
-- Excerpt from Prayer of Saint Francis of Assisi

As always, this 49 year old's journey remains a work in progress.

And so much work remains.

DeColores.

Thursday Through Sunday Notes - Hearts on Fire

2010-04-22T09:00:00.005-04:00

As I head out on my retreat, I'll leave you with a visual of my weekend expectations.

Call it "Hearts on Fire" for the soul, and simply replace the physical aspects of the video with that of the spirit.

I'm the guy in the barn.

See you Monday.

Tuesday Notes - Rebooting the Soul

2010-04-20T13:21:00.010-04:00

It's been about two years now since I chose to open up my life & trading journey via this online journal to those who happened to stumble across these virtual pages.

In doing so, I made a commitment to use this journal to document my innermost personal thoughts, as well as share them openly to try to provide inspiration, while trying to tear down some of the hidden curtains of an industry which is all too often clouded by smoke and mirrors.

And so it's in such continuing "diary" mode that I share my preparations -- and admittedly some trepidation -- for this coming weekend.

btw, disinterested onlookers can change the channel now. As always, this remains my personal diary and no one is forced to read it :-).

As I've referenced lately, from this Thursday at 4:30pm to Sunday at 7:30pm, I'll be escaping most of the tangible aspects of this world to strengthen and renew my spiritual walk. During this time, I'll be without access to a car, computer (including my Sony Vaio!), phone, the internet, my family (except for an emergency if needed), and even a clock.

It's called the "Walk to Emmaus", with which I imagine many of you are familiar. I'll spare the details of the effort, which you can check out via this link if you're so inclined.

Anyway, this 49 year old Type A trader/educator/parent/husband is about to shut himself down in many ways for the first time in -- well, his adult life.

And I admit I'm a bit apprehensive about it.

But there's no doubt -- no doubt at all -- that I need it.

Why? Let me count the ways.

First, I stink at shutting down, and this will force me to do it.

Second, I'm tired. Like many of you, the last few years of balancing a family, preparing two children for college, and working (in my case, trading & teaching) has zapped some energy. And I never did fully recharge after the fifth Jellie effort.

Although I find it interesting and highly ironic that the lack of complete phsyical/mental/spriritual energy isn't reflected in my trading results, as to use a baseball analogy, all of the pitches currently look the size of watermelons. That's not usually the case, although I have let a few trades slip that I don't normally miss.

And given the last few weeks of intense college searching and this last week of repeated London flight cancellations/rescheduling and mentoring two devasated daughters, it's clear I need to recharge.

btw, Deb & Chelsea never made it to London to visit Courtney -- after having planned the trip for months, so they're going to West Palm Beach for four days on the beach to at least try to salvage some of the vacation week. Call it improvised Plan D after A through C failed. Remember, I'm a trader, and thus the words "Give Up" aren't in my vocabulary.

Third, I need to recenter myself spiritually. I've never been a "going through the motions" type of guy, and that's how I feel I've been living the last few months. And like many, I fall into the trap of seeing and thinking only from an earthly perspective, and inappropriately focusing on things that will be someday be gone in the blink of an eye. Lest we forget the Svithjod Rock post!

And as I rapidly approach the half-century mark, it's time to recapture the energy and passion I had for Christ that I had that one summer some 36 years ago.

So there it is. Many of you have been screaming at me since late 2008 -- and some as early as 2003! -- to completely shut down for a bit to restore the soul. And while I admit it will only be for four days, those that have been through the experience tell me it will feel like weeks ... in a good way.

So I'm finally listening.

And as I take this brief break, I'd like to remind everyone that there are two years worth of trading babbling contained in these virtual pages, including the key posts listed in the lower left. Frankly, there's probably not much more that can be said that hasn't already been said.

Consider it reruns ... until next Monday.

And in the words of Arnold ... I'll be back.

Please note that between Thursday and Monday, I won't be able to respond to emails or blog comments, or process Webinar orders, but will respond either before I leave or when I play catch-up early next week.

Monday Notes - Blog Break

2010-04-19T23:00:00.001-04:00

Posts will resume on Tuesday.

P.S. At the request of several folks, I've added Sunday's post to the key post list in the lower left.

The Weekend Trader - Focusing on the Comma

2010-04-18T10:19:00.038-04:00

Here's an excerpt from today's Boston Globe following the Bruins' 5-3 victory over Buffalo in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs last night:

Did the Bruins make mistakes yesterday? Plenty, including the kind that end up in the back of your net. But you know what? Mistakes happen. All the time, even to the best teams. It’s how a team responds that determines its fate. “Hockey’s about mistakes,’’ David Krejci said. “There’s always going to be mistakes. If there’s no mistakes, then hockey would be 0-0.’’
-- Fluto Shinzawa of the Boston Globe on 4-18-10

It's so true in hockey ... and trading.

So let's change a few words and apply it to trading.

Did I make mistakes on Friday? Plenty, including the kind that end up cutting into your equity. But you know what? Mistakes happen. All the time, even to the best traders. It’s how a trader responds that determines his/her fate. “Trading is about mistakes,’’ Trader Don said. “There are always going to be mistakes. If there were no mistakes, then the market would never move.’’

Frankly, if I had to summarize my beliefs about trading in a single word, it would be "perseverance".

As I've often said, I make mistakes every day (here's a classic blast from the past on that topic). Lots. Mistakes of judgment; Mistakes of omission; Mistakes of suboptimal sizing; Mistakes of entering or exiting too soon; Mistakes of being a perfectionist; Mistakes of allowed distractions; Mistakes of self-doubt; and the list goes on.

As I mentioned on Friday, I had a strong day -- and by P&L standards, it was the best of the year. btw, as is normally the case in an emotional market which I tend to trade well, I made most of my money on the long side during the GS barf by buying several blood-on-the-floor points hard. Yet I awoke Saturday with a pit in my stomach knowing there was one particular trade sequence after the final capitulation that I should have pressed as hard as I've ever pressed a trade.

It was one of my favorites, and should have made the month right then and there. Yet I lost focus for a single moment, didn't have the Tom Cruise / A Few Good Men / "Going for the Jack Nicholson Code Red Admission Kill" feeling, and by the time I realized I'd missed the prime spot, price rebounded so quickly that I couldn't chase the entry.

And while not real financial loss, it was a costly opportunity loss ... amounting in the tens of thousands.

So I decided to clear the mind via a 12-hour poker marathon yesterday which started in Foxwoods among strangers and finished with a small local game until about 2am this morning amidst friends who regularly play together.

And wouldn't you know it, I made several mistakes at the table yesterday, including letting up and folding pre-flop after winning a big hand (I had pot odds & would have flopped a straight even with a sick 10-8), simply not going with my instincts a few times, as well as ever so slightly suboptimizing a straight flush in which I couldn't induce a call from my opponent.

On the plus side, I correctly played pocket aces in one particular hand both pre- and post-flop, and took down the largest pot of the night just after midnight by going all in and getting called post flop ... after which time it held up. And by the end of the day, I came out ahead.

And the net result is all that matters.

I've often said that if I ever wrote a book (and to those who keep asking, I still feel the blog is more beneficial as I can keep the content up-to-date), that it would be titled "How to Make a Million by Making a Million Mistakes".

For feedback from the 2009-10 Jellie training efforts -- as well as direct involvement in a decade of trader educational efforts at this end -- would clearly show that one of the greatest "light bulb" moments for participants is when they see the amount of mistakes I make as I share trades and thoughts on a moment-by-moment basis -- and the subsequent actions taken to overcome them.

As I've stated dozens of times in this journal, I'll never understand why so many in this business refuse to acknowledge their -- no, make that "our" -- humanity ... instead of embracing it.

For hockey, trading, poker, and life are ALL about making mistakes.

And from a trading perspective, as I stated above, “There are always going to be trading mistakes. If there were no mistakes, then the market would never move.’’

You just have to make fewer than the other guy, as well as make sure the mistake ends with a comma -- instead of a period.

At this end, I don't believe in periods.

For it's the comma that allows us to continue.

And profit.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend ,

P.S. Life continues on Monday.

Friday Notes - Change in the Air

2010-04-16T16:38:00.001-04:00

Today I discuss today's change in market rhythm & liquidity, a tweak I've made to better segregate my entry & exit traders, why I think you can feel very good about your trading if you nailed BOTH yesterday and today, and some experimenting I'm doing with an Excel program that autoplots time of day performance. Thanks to "Jellie John" who helped me with this.

Here's a link to today's time of day graph I reference in the clip. Each bar represents the net gain or loss realized during the 30 minute interval beginning at the time stamp at the bottom of each bar. Please note it's strictly coincidence that the graph reflects a good day, and I'll be sure to post a different type of day to keep everything -- as FOX News says -- "fair and balanced." And yes, I squeezed in one last teeny trade after 3:30pm after I completed the video.

As I mention in the video, the program isn't ready for release and requires use of the Trading Technologies (TT) platform that automatically feeds Excel, so consider it a continuing beta test for now.

Thursday Notes - Volcano'd!

2010-04-15T14:24:00.001-04:00

Call it "life-us interrupt-us" as I've been spending most of today trying to rebook my family's trip to London this weekend to visit my older daughter.

This once-in-a-lifetime eruption (sort of like the 2008 VIX over 80) has closed European airspace and is creating transportation havoc all over the world. Not to mention interrupting my trading focus on a MATD!

So now, we're trying for a not-so-cute Cape Cod-Boston-New York-Raleigh/Durham-London over the next two days ... ASSUMING the airspace opens up so they can land on Saturday AM.

Got some MATD trading in, but it was minimal given the circumstances.

And 'twas an early bird day with the classic setup kicking in around 5:30am ET.

I'll need that massage tonight ... as trading is simple compared to dealing with air travel.

Wednesday Notes - Standing Your Ground

2010-04-14T08:25:00.011-04:00

There's an old saying that if you don't stand for something, you stand for nothing.

Trading is an interesting life exercise in that in every moment of every day, there are always two conflicting opinions as to the expected market direction. ALWAYS.

Yet as more evidence is provided, one side will ultimately win. And predominantly, it's the same group over time ... just like it's typically the same group of people at final tables across the poker landscape.

And so it is with life. Given the gift of free will, and especially the gift of freedom and liberty we have in this country, there are differing opinions on almost every issue on the planet. Lest we forget the lesson of the blue wall (and we should all watch that Jimmy V speech at least once a month).

Now bear with me as I have some fun tearing apart one longstanding trading belief ... the belief that there's no such thing as "right" or "wrong".

So I'll turn the tables for the moment and say that ultimately, like life, trading is all about right vs. wrong. And if you really think about it from an objective perspective -- it's as clear as black vs. white.

Unfortunately, in this day of "political correctness", we too often use the color -- and excuse -- of grays. Which also happens to relate to another particular term I hate, which is part of society's current tendency to end every discussion with the term "whatever".

Well, I say let's ditch the "grays" and "whatevers".

For I firmly believe that to be successful in trading AND life, you HAVE to take a stand. A stand that is Rock solid and unwavering at that very moment where it's critical to stand up for what you believe ... scratch that ... make that "for what is right."

In trading, you have to have conviction to buy and buy hard when the panic selling wanes, or sell and sell hard after the panic buyers are done ... even with it goes against trading's version of "immediate political correctness". Simply put, at the right time, you have to stand your ground.

And of course in life, you have to have the conviction to stand by your principles despite whatever obstacles may be tossed in your path -- and there will be obstacles which are sometimes disguised as illness, setbacks, or even "popular opinion" ... which if you really think about it, is usually in reality unpopular and held by a few who go through life being tossed in the wind or simply prefer gray.

Last night, I had the wonderful privilege of seeing firsthand the type of good our ADA donations were doing at the worldwide center for diabetes research -- the Joslin Center in Boston. And it wasn't about receiving the pin on behalf of many of you for the extent of our $16K donation (I have a new goal of $50K which I'll discuss at another time), rather it was about the work that everyone is doing across the globe to fight this and other deadly diseases.

We have one shot at life.

May your trading and living reflect the convictions that withstand those who choose to live life surrounded with the color of gray.

And remember that every majestic oak tree started with a nut that stood its ground.

... not to mention Bamboos.

Tuesday AM Notes - Traveling to Boston

2010-04-13T07:57:00.002-04:00

I'll be representing the Jellies at today's American Diabetes Association board meeting in Boston.

Look for a post on the importance of "changing gears" in both trading and poker later in the week.

The Weekend Trader Part 3 - Lessons From the Masters

2010-04-11T19:07:00.017-04:00

What a great scene to see Phil Mickelson once again on his game and standing atop his industry peers at the end of the most prestigious tournament in golf.

And what an even better scene to see his wife Amy -- who continues to fight breast cancer -- smiling as the radiant sun shone on both of them at the end.

Phil and Amy have done so much for the causes of education and breast cancer awareness as they fight through their personal life battles, that they continue to be role models for this trader.

Personally, it's pushing me to step up efforts on both the diabetes and educational fronts. And I'll be presenting another check to the ADA at Tuesday's board meeting for the Q1 Jellie proceeds which will bring the cumulative donated tally to over $16,000.

Kudos also go to Fred Couples who shot the lowest Masters score ever for a golfer 50 or over. Just goes to show that there's something to be said for the gray hairs of experience, and that life only gets better with age.

Between watching Fred -- who has a terribly bad back -- and having one of the greatest personal weekends at this end in recent years, it makes this 49 year-old feel young and energized as we start the new week.

Have a great trading week!

The Weekend Trader Part 2 - Educational Beginnings

2010-04-11T12:03:00.009-04:00

Following up on yesterday's video post, here are some interesting tidbits on the founding of Tufts University from their historical archives:

In the 1840s, the Universalist Church wanted to open a college in New England. Boston businessman Charles Tufts gave the church a gift of 20 acres of land, valued at $20,000, on the condition it be used for establishing a college. With that, the location was decided. Tufts' land, which he inherited, was located on one of the highest hills in the Boston area, Walnut Hill, straddling Medford and Somerville.

As local lore has it, when a relative asked Charles Tufts what he would do with his land, and more specifically with "that bleak hill over in Medford," Tufts replied, "I will put a light on it." In 1855, a toast to the new Tufts College was offered at a Universalist gathering in Faneuil Hall. Hosea Ballou 2nd, a Universalist clergyman and the college's first president, remarked, "For if Tufts College is to be a source of illumination, as a beacon standing on a hill, where its light cannot be hidden, its influence will naturally work like all light; it will be diffusive."

In Tufts' early days, the main college building that would eventually bear Ballou's name served as both home and classroom for seven students, who were taught by four professors. By the time of Ballou's death in 1861, Tufts had 36 alumni, and 53 students enrolled.

-- Source www.tufts.edu

Interesting concepts ... light transforming bleakness, diffusive influence, starting with only seven students, and grown from an initial spiritual seed to become one of the world's most respected and influential institutions.

And so the wheels of trading education thought continue to spin.

The Weekend Trader - The Search for Quality Education

2010-04-10T15:55:00.014-04:00

My thoughts on our family's visit to Tufts University today, as well as inferences to the continuing search to provide similar quality education for those pursuing trading careers.

So as one personal search comes to an end, the ongoing search and refinement of bona-fide trading education in this industry continues.

Friday Notes - My Six Figure Day

2010-04-09T12:21:00.008-04:00

As some know, one of my goals this year was a six-figure day.

Well, today was it.

Not in a trading sense, but in a financial sense as we learned this morning that Chelsea has been offered a two-thirds academic scholarship to Tufts University.

As they say, a penny saved is a penny earned, and from a financial perspective, the bottom line is all that matters.

It's huge.

And deserved.

And lifts a burden off our collective shoulders.

As I mentioned last night, I was prepared to pay the full amount.

Isn't it funny how the Master plan is often to see what you're WILLING to do, before the gift of grace shines its radiant light??

So it will be a weekend of celebrating, followed by 100% focus on trading beginning on Monday.

P.S. Oh, and we of course had the classic MATD trading day today. Does life get better than this??

Thursday Notes - Where's Don

2010-04-08T22:42:00.016-04:00

Don asked me to write this post.

First, let's dispel a few rumors circulating around the web as to what's going on during his first extended blog break since he launched this public diary a few years ago.

Here are responses to a few theories floating around the web:

Don crashed his Escolade into the hydrant next door.

Nope, he doesn't own a Cadillac.

Don is pursuing his dream to play at the Masters.

Only if the trophy goes to the high score, or if there's a side poker game.

Don had an incredible trading blow-up.

Ummm, the April 1st post was fictional.

Don had a death in the family.

No, although that one will some day be true as his parents are approaching their latter years.

No, Don just needed some privacy to focus on some key personal and family issues, while regaining perspective on a few fronts.

Having a high public profile is quite a challenge. For non-stop since July 2008, he's been sharing his intimate views with thousands of traders on a daily basis. And for the last nine months, he's always been accompanied by other traders during the day, as he first taught (five teams), and then traded alongside the Jellies.

And so he just needed to "get away" from the public profile for a bit, and didn't feel it necessary to share details with the world.

So what has he been doing?

Well, he's been spending much of the last week helping his daughter Chelsea navigate through her final college choices. Among her current top choices are Tufts (THE most expensive school in Massachusetts, and that's saying a lot given the Harvards, etc.) and Northeastern University.

It's a substantial decision that also includes a $250K educational investment -- and yes, we're talking real dollars with zero financial aid.

# # #

btw, over the last two months, Don has had multiple requests for educational handouts in the form of (1) giving away the 16-Hour Jellie Webinars, (2) a trade of the full live Jellie training program for a useless database, (3) 100% "guarantee" of success, (4) someone asking him to give up multiple weeks of his trading income to spend with them on a one-on-one basis, (5) multiple people trying to learn to trade via email question after email question (sort of like that M*A*S*H episode where the guy was trying to mail a jeep home --- part by part), and more that are too silly to even bother giving them the light of day.

And for a moment, he envisioned himself asking Tufts if Chelsea could get just ONE course by any of the above. His side still hurts from laughing.

And therein lies the problem in this "corner" of good old "USA" ... which he firmly believes is starting to stand for "Usually Sitting on one's Ass".

News Flash for those unwilling to take a trading career and its required education seriously: "You get what you pay for", and "Work" is named that way for a reason.

And if Don is willing to invest a quarter of a million dollars over five years for a substantial education to launch a career, do you really want to fret over spending $750 or $1,500 to assist in building a trading career???

But I digress.

# # #

He also learned an interesting tidbit that might help explain his physical and focus challenge that struck suddenly in the spring of 2009, ended his $2.0M 15-month run, and was driving him crazy. For at the request of his doctor, he had another Lyme test taken a week ago and there was some residual evidence that that infamous spider bite in early 2009 may have actually been a tick bite.

And if that's indeed true, he was told that trying to trade through that would have been like a sprinter trying to run while dragging a ball and chain, and its affects can last for months. Well, that explains a lot.

Anyway, Don asked me to pass along this update to put some rumors to rest and ease any blog withdrawal symptoms.

And yes, he's been trading.

Who am I?

You can call me Don3.

Don should be back after this weekend's college visits to Boston and New York.

P.S. Next Tuesday, the American Diabetes Association will be formally recognizing the Jellie donations and presenting Don with a special pin at their quarterly board meeting. Thanks again to all participating in this worthwhile cause.

Blog Update - ETA 4/12

2010-04-07T15:49:00.000-04:00

I expect to resume normal posts on Monday 4/12.

In the meantime, there's an abundance of info in the key posts in the lower left hand margin -- as well as two years of babbling -- to keep newer onlookers occupied.

Thanks for your understanding.

Special Post - Blog Break

2010-04-06T07:07:00.005-04:00

Please note posts are currently on hold in light of some personal matters.

I hope to resume shortly.

The Weekend Trader - A New Season

2010-04-04T13:24:00.004-04:00

This trader's Easter perspective.

Please note my reference to "Friday's post" meant "Thursday's post".

Good Friday

2010-04-02T11:06:00.001-04:00

"Father, into your hands I commit my spirit."

The blog will be dark until the glory of Easter shines its everlasting light on Sunday.

Thursday Notes - Slaughtered **

2010-04-01T11:41:00.002-04:00

Well, it happened.

I was heavy on the retail side of every single trade sequence entry this morning and went 0 for 16, losing $36K in the process.

You name it, I screwed it up.

I was short heavy overnight, added at the open, and then barfed it out at the 10:02 AM high when I simply couldn't take the pain any further.

I then proceded to buy every high TICK confirmation as it told me the market was moving up. After all, the market was up strong on the day, and high TICKs were the further proof that I needed of continuation.

Yet every time, I ended up entering on the high of the pattern, and when TICK and price both weakened beyond my 1 point concrete stop, I ended up getting stopped out right at the bottom before the market turned back up again.

It was a pattern that repeated itself throughout the day, time after time and sequence after sequence.

Then, whenever I DID have a good entry, I was stopped out by a one-tick probe of the last swing high or low before ES continued in the direction I thought it would.

It repeated again and again and again.

Talk about a head-banging day.

How can anyone ever make any money in this business?

It has to be luck.

Continued ....

** 3:30PM Note ... At the risk of stating the ridiculously obvious, apparently a few need me to tell them to CLICK ON THE "Continued" LINK! Geesh.

Wednesday Notes - Shut Up & Trade

2010-03-31T20:27:00.002-04:00

I've been doing too much yakking during and after market hours lately, so I'm trying to talk less and trade more.

I'll elaborate over the weekend.

Tuesday Notes - Personal Trading Retreat

2010-03-30T18:31:00.017-04:00

After exchanging some notes with Linda Raschke the other day addressing the challenge of staying motivated, I decided to move forward with an idea of getting out of my office and trading remotely for a week or so to keep the mind fresh.

So I've booked an oceanfront townhouse for the last week in May, which for four days will become my trading office after an initial weekend with my family.

The ironic thing is it's only six miles from my home & office (seriously), but will hopefully feel like a world away. Yes, we live on Cape Cod, but not right on the ocean. This will be ON the ocean (the arrow is my unit) ... although if it doesn't stop raining soon, it may end up IN the ocean.

Why the last week in May? Well, I can't book it sooner (it's closed off-season), and rates will still be low that week before the tourists begin to arrive after Memorial Day. Hell, I'm a trader.

And the per-night rate?? A ridiculously low $130! Talk about buying wholesale ... we're talking ocean-facing, newly renovated, two-story, central A/C & heat, a full kitchen, living room, dining area, private deck, high speed wireless Internet access, twenty steps to the beach and twenty-five to a 85 degree heated pool.

Quick note to Jellies - Other units remain available that week if you're so inclined. I'll also be checking out the facilities for a potential fall get-together when the rates -- you guessed it -- go back down before they close for the season.

I of course won't have my full setup, yet as I've often said, give me one screen, two charts, an order entry system, and Internet access, and I should be fine.

My biggest challenge and possible distraction may be the fact that there's a strong wi-fi connection on the beach.

Hopefully, the weather won't be too nice.

P.S. And a very happy birthday to my dad who turns 83 today. Thanks for all you've done over the years. I just hope I can stay out of my own way long enough to become just half the person you became.

Monday Notes - Traveling

2010-03-29T21:25:00.002-04:00

Posts will resume on Tuesday.

The Weekend Trader - It's OK to Get Mad

2010-03-28T14:03:00.002-04:00

On this Palm Sunday, I discuss why it's OK -- and perhaps even essential -- to get downright mad at poor personal performance. I also follow up on Friday's post concerning the firing of my head trader.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend.

P.S. Here's a great Easter season link reminding us how fortunate we are to have received the gift of color.

The Weekend Trader - Out of Town

2010-03-27T07:34:00.006-04:00

I'll be out of town much of the weekend attending to some personal issues, returning late on Monday.

I'll try to squeeze in a post on Sunday as I work through a key psychological mindset shift, and will let Friday's post echo in the meantime.

I did play my best poker in a long time last night in a cash game though, laying down a pre-flop pair to a better hand five times.

Jellies - I expect to rejoin you on Tuesday.

Friday Notes - It's Never Easy

2010-03-26T12:12:00.006-04:00

As this journal evolves back into, well, a personal journal, I'm going to try to again bring to light many aspects of this business that those who don't trade continue to fail to address, and that those who do truly trade often refuse to acknowledge publicly.

Before proceeding, please again keep in mind this is a diary which -- since mid-2008 and for now -- remains open to the public. And as I've often said, if you don't care for venting, beating up on myself, the rare celebration, etc., then simply change the channel. I'm sure the thousands of fictional personal accounts and hyped services on the 'net will provide you the easy dreamy stories that you're likely seeking.

Yes, it's true I've made millions in the market and performed amidst the top of my industry peers during a recent stretch. Yet don't think it's ever been easy ... or ever becomes easy even for those of us who have been fortunate to attain a certain level of success.

It's not. We have to work at it every moment of every day. And if we don't, we join the masses of trading population who donate their capital to those that do.

As I've often said, chart patterns can be learned in a day. Maybe less. Oh sure, reinforcement over time can help, yet -- to use a poker analogy -- does one really have to play months of poker to understand that a straight is a series of five cards in sequential order????

Oh I'm sure you can spend thousands upon thousands to learn about fancy names for the straight. And perhaps more for someone to point out on a moment-by-moment basis that you're indeed holding a straight. And if you're the type of person who needs someone to tell them the WALK sign at the intersection means they should cross the street, perhaps that's why the industry is full of "I can't walk but will tell you when to walk" sites and chatrooms. But I digress.

Yet trading really is all about the other stuff. The stuff that no one talks about. The stuff that most will never understand. The stuff that most are afraid to discuss, lest it show that they're ... gasp ... human.

Most seasoned blog onlookers and all Jellies know that I'm a venter. When I'm not trading well or lacking motivation and/or focus, most know it instantly -- primarily because I wear my emotions on my sleeve and tend to be more public with my screw-ups than my successes. There are two reasons for this: (1) I remain sick and tired of the lack of such transparency in this overly-hyped industry, and (2) it's personally very therapeutic for me.

btw, does that make me a saint or martyr? Ummm, maybe I wasn't blatant enough, so let me try this. At times, I simply suck.

I know my personal demons well. And most are the same in both my poker and trading games: motivation, focus, and energy level. For those are the ONLY three elements of both businesses (btw, yes I do view poker playing as a business ... albeit a fun one) that will ever prevent me from being successful hour by hour, day by day, and month by month.

I also have one weakness that is especially apparent in my trading game, and one that continues to eat at me and my capital at times. And that's my Eurex DAX trading. And wouldn't you know it, Don1's stupid sequence the other day before I fired him? He was short 60 DAX contracts as the market was moving hard against him.

So why do I trade the DAX? Mainly because I've gotten "bored" with ES. At the risk of sounding cocky, I know I can make money off ES any hour of any day. So I continue to be drawn to the DAX and its "jitterbug" rhythm and far less liquidity which continue to challenge me. Yet trading the DAX requires tremendous focus and increased hand/eye coordination, and if the energy level and focus are even slightly off ... well, ask Don1 what the effect can be. And it only takes one poor DAX sequence to undo weeks of inner rhythm with one's primary bread and butter ... in my case, ES.

So these are my own personal battles. Battles that I must fight daily.

And speaking of battles, I was again angry this morning. For I saw Don1 and Don2 having breakfast together ... and while I don't know what they were discussing, the end result was that Don2 was late to work this morning and left a $50K MATD trade on the table. All he had to do was show up and pick up the check.

Sigh.

It never gets easy.

Thursday Notes - You're Fired

2010-03-25T14:16:00.011-04:00

It's back. All of it.

Charter blog onlookers will know them well: The countdown clock, the fictitious drawdawn, the scorecard, and yes, even the anger ... everything that kept me focused and motivated during the 1/08-3/09 $2 Million run. I'd even wear my old socks if my wife hadn't thrown them out. Remember, I'm a tightwad.

Why? Simple. After sleepwalking through two days of market action, searching for a post-Jellie reason to trade, looking for every excuse in the book why not to make a trade, and simply not caring about trading just enough to cause me to loan some funds to the market with two stupid a$$ unfocused and undisciplined sequences right after I reached a key equity mark, at 10:15AM EDT, I decided I'd had enough.

Case in point, I was doing my taxes during market action the other day, and then chose to sleep in during today's anticipated Europe breakout.

So I'm mad. And we're talking door-slamming, pi$$ed off mad (just ask my trading partner).

And at 10:15AM, I fired Don1 (of the last session and a half) and replaced him with Don2 (head trader during 2008-09). Don2 was of course a bit reluctant at first as he wanted to know what happened to his predecessor. But he said OK only after I agreed to provide him with his old tools ... thus the countdown clock, etc.

And wouldn't you know it, Don2 immediately sat down and fired off twelve consecutive profitable trades that more than made up for Don1's morning mess.

So here's Don2's charter: He has until April 1 to work his tail off to get back above that key equity mark, at which point prior equity resistance will have to equal support. And then from 4/1 until my 50th birthday on 3/10/11, Don2 is going to manage my last official self-imposed race with a single carrot at the end: To give myself the option to retire comfortably on my 50th. Note I said "option" ... most Type A's don't ever retire until they're six feet under.

No dollar targets. Instead, the extent of my quality of life after 50 will be completely based on whatever Don2 can contribute over the next year. And I plan on pushing him ... hard.

Word of caution - You don't want to be on the other side of Don2's trades over the coming weeks.

My only question is whether he's any good at fixing doors.

P.S. Poker and massage night tonight. But only for Don2. And if Don1 asks for a trading job, don't even bother.

Wednesday Notes - Blog Break

2010-03-24T15:42:00.002-04:00

Posts will resume on Thursday.

Tuesday Notes - True Riches

2010-03-23T22:39:00.012-04:00

During my recent mountaintop get-away, I had the chance to again read The Millionaire Next Door, which I found on the nightstand of my weekend abode.

As many know, this best-seller was published in the late 1990s, and describes how our perspective of those who we believe are "wealthy" is often so very distorted.

Specifically, the book goes into great detail explaining how many people incorrectly associate millionaires with luxury cars, expensive houses, watches, etc., while the vast majority of the truly wealthy typically did so under the radar by living unlavish lifestyles.

Essentially, authors Stanley and Danko provided a roadmap of sorts for accumulation of financial wealth far different than that which most try to follow.

It was an interesting read as I mentally compared personal demographics to the book's "prototypical American millionaire", and did quite a bit of chuckling and head-nodding. More for fun than any significant analysis.

Here were some of the more comical comparisons:

Benchmark: 57 Year-Old Male with 3 children

Self-Check: 49 with 2 kids ... maybe we should have had that third one!

Benchmark: Many businesses they're in could be classified as "dullnormal"

Self-Check: About fell off the chair laughing on that one.

Benchmark: They have a "go-to-hell" fund, meaning one could live without working for ten years.

Self-Check: Check. And yes, I've used it in that manner!

Benchmark: They are tightwads.

Self-Check: Let's see. The last new car we purchased was an off-the-lot Corolla without power steering or power windows in 1986. Even Grace is now almost eight years old, and she already had 46K miles when I got her used. I typically wear T-shirts and jeans, and had to buy a new sports jacket and pair of trousers before the NY presentation. We live in a house built in the 1960s that needs paint in a modest neighborhood, and my favorite dessert is a Dairy Queen Oreo Blizzard ... small and preferably with a coupon. I guess that's a check.

Benchmark: They hold 20% of household wealth in financial instruments.
Self-Check: Well, this one "depends". Are we talking about at any given time during the day or end of day? And if I'm 300% invested for 15 minutes, and 0% the rest of the time, can I use my average?? OK, I fail that one... keeping in mind that the main reason there were more millionaires created over the last two years than in the past was that they started as billionaires.

As I said, it was a fun exercise, yet I wouldn't mind seeing the true portfolio of those on the covers of those "get rich quick" flyers that still find their way to my mailbox. And yes, I got one today describing "the shortest way to turn $10,000 into $175,000". Even funnier, the next line read, "It can almost guarantee ..." and then listed several incredible results. Is that like being almost pregnant???

Diabetes Follow-Up - EMails continue to pour in response to recent posts, including notes from many Type 1 diabetic traders. And yes, that was a real picture of Chelsea on the tennis court as her body was breaking down before beginning treatment.

Thanks to David who provided a link to a good interview with NY Jets owner Woody Johnson who unfortunately recently lost his daughter Casey at the age of 30 to complications from diabetes. The interview also features Dr. Aaron Kowalski who does a great job of explaining the depths of the disease to lay people, and I encourage you to take a few minutes to view it.

Simply put, Type 1 is an hour by hour tightrope walk for those whose bodies can't produce any insulin to continually provide the body with just the right amount. Too little and you die. Too much and you die. And prior to 1930 and subsequent advances in research and medicine, Type 1 resulted in unstoppable death within two years.

As Woody references in the interview, one of his diabetic business associates once described that he'd give up his millions to live just one day without the disease.

I'd do the same for my daughter.

And I'd be among the "richest" men on the planet.

P.S. Looks like yet another trading M.A.T.D. in the morning. After today's classic open, it may feel like playing a doubleheader!

Monday Notes - Early Week Thoughts

2010-03-22T19:50:00.002-04:00

Tonight's video touches on why I'm not pleased with a 9-for-10 day, why this journal discusses life as much as it does trading, plans for an upcoming "Vaio-less" personal retreat, an update on the Jellie Webinar ADA tally (closing in on $16K), and my perspectives on not replenishing trading accounts following a draw.

And on the heels of this weekend's inspirational piece on overcoming adversity, I revisit a very kind gesture from Larry Connors of Street Smarts and TradingMarkets some eight years ago (see photo montage to right; click to enlarge).

For trading will always remain a business of people.